Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Golden State is the highest projected scoring team, which you can usually assume them to be every night they play. (113) They are 14 point favorites, but doesn't worry me with the guy below.

- Hornets-Thunder has a 209 total tonight, with a seven point spread. OKC's defense has been atrocious of late, and this game should stay close, and possess tons of fantasy points.

- Pelicans-Mavs has a 207 total, but lately the Pelicans games have been severely under the game total. I don't believe that will be the case tonight, but I also would not be surprised to see a 91-85 style game.

- Utah-Memphis is a game not on my radar, outside of a few value plays. (Trey Burke, Jeff Green) It is just a 186 total, and a one point spread.

- Blowout concerns, Warriors -14, Spurs -11.5, and Clippers -13.

Top Picks

Kemba Walker (PG), Hornets

Opponent

Minutes

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Defensive Efficiency Rating

Usage Rate

Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed

Vegas Team Total

Projection

Thunder

361.0324.224.650.110037.1

Salary: FD: $8,600 DK: $7,900

Kemba Walker is coming off of a somewhat down game, where he shot just 33%, yet scored over 35 fantasy points still. He has been on an excellent run, averaging 23-5-4, with 2.4 steals per game in the last five games. Walker has also played 35+ minutes in the last eight games, crossing into the 40's most nights. A matchup against Russell Westbrook is not one to shy away from. OKC has allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing PG this season, and are really struggling of late. Hornets have a nice 100 team total to target tonight, and I will start with Kemba. He has shot 4% higher at home, and 11% higher from thee at home. Kemba is one of my favorite point guards, without breaking the bank.

Will Barton (SG), Nuggets

Opponent

Minutes

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Defensive Efficiency Rating

Usage Rate

Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed

Vegas Team Total

Projection

@Warriors311.0316.023.737.99931.9

Salary: FD: $7,200 DK: $7,300

No way I am paying up for James Harden tonight, who will likely draw Kawhi Leonard on defense. Instead, Will Barton gives me the floor I want, and for a cheaper price. He is averaging 23-3-6 in the last six games, shooting 50% from the field. Barton is still coming off the bench, but no worries, he is averaging 34 minutes per game in the last six. Barton has seen time at the two, and the three, shooting at will. Even though Denver are underdogs, it won't stop me from rostering Barton tonight. He is averaging 19-4-7 in two games against Golden State this season.

Kawhi Leonard (SF), Spurs

Opponent

Minutes

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Defensive Efficiency Rating

Usage Rate

Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed

Vegas Team Total

Projection

Rockets

341.2221.224.644.410741.4

Salary: FD: $8,600 DK: $8,500

Even though the line has the Spurs possibly running away with this one, Houston did beat San Antonio on Christmas day, and will keep this one closer than the line projects. That means good things for Leonard, who always seems to be playing in meaningless games. That is not the case tonight, and a 107 total is something I want to jump all over. With Kevin Durant, Paul George, and Lebron James all having subpar outings of late, by their standards, Leonard gives you a similar floor, and does carry a high upside. He is averaging 19-3-6, with 3.4 blocks+steals per game in the last five games. He is shooting 57% from three, and over 50% from the field in that span. Houston has allowed the 6th most steals per game to opposing SF, and the 4th most fantasy points per game. Go ahead and eat tonight Leonard.

Draymond Green (PF), Warriors

Opponent

Minutes

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Defensive Efficiency Rating

Usage Rate

Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed

Vegas Team Total

Projection

Nuggets351.1726.219.849.211340.9

Salary: FD: $9,400 DK: $9,600

If Stephen Curry sits, I love Draymond Green even more than I already do, but he is also a safe play if Curry does play. He is coming off of a 10-16-11 game, where he had two blocks, and two steals. Green brings everything to the table, and even in blowouts, he always seems to see 35 minutes of play. The Nuggets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards, allowing nearly 4 blocks+steals per game. Get yourself some exposure to the Warriors tonight, and I recommend with Green.

Karl Anthony-Towns (C), Wolves

Opponent

Minutes

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Defensive Efficiency Rating

Usage Rate

Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed

Vegas Team Total

Projection

Bucks

331.1626.224.546.510238.2

Salary: FD: $7,900 DK: $7,000

The minutes are back to being steady for Karl Anthony-Towns, which was why he was missed from the cash game articles for a while. Minnesota has a nice 102 total, and there are plenty of worthy players from this game in general. Towns is averaging 18-2-10 in the last five games, shooting 55%. Milwaukee ranks 25th in rebound differential, and have allowed 52 DK points on average in the last ten games to opposing centers. I love his DraftKings price, but even at $7,900 he can be placed in cash game lineups. Towns has scored 20+ real points in five of the last seven games. The two games he didn't, he played the Spurs, so he gets a pass from me.

Value Plays

J.J. Redick (SG - LAC) FD: $5,000 DK: $5,500

J.J. Redick is very scoring reliant, but is averaging 20 points in the last five games. He is shooting 55% from the field, and 56% from three. He has 26, 26, 7, and 25 real points in the last four games, so there is a small risk, given that low floor he can bring if the shot is off. In a matchup against Philly, I am not too worried.

Jeff Green (SF - MEM) FD: $5,000 DK: $5,700

Matt Barnes is suspended one more game, meaning Jeff Green is in play yet again. A tough matchup on paper for Green, but Utah has been average in fantasy points allowed per game. He is averaging 14-3-6 in the last five games, shooting 57% from the field. I am not on him on DraftKings with that price tag,

Nerlens Noel (PF - PHI) FD: $6,300 DK: $6,500

I am not sure I can stop playing Nerlens Noel at this price, with his recent production. There are big names at power forward tonight, but they are either injured, or have been unreliable. Noel has been delivering a safe floor since entering the starting rotation. He is averaging 14 and 18, with 4.7 blocks+steals per game. His defensive numbers add to his floor/ceiling. The Clippers rank 28th in rebound differential, and have allowed the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers.

Zaza Pachulia (C - DAL) FD: $6,500 DK: $5,600

Zaza Pachulia is in a great spot for a value center tonight. New Orleans has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and rank 27th in rebound differential. He is coming off of another double-double night versus Hassan Whiteside, which makes it impressive. He has a double-double in three of the last four games, averaging about 30 fantasy points in the last six.



Comments
zachsgotmoxy
Love Walker especially if Lin is out once again.