NBA Winners from Downtown 10-28-15

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

“DMC" only faced the Clippers in 2 of their 4 meetings last season, but he made an impact right away. He posted a monster 34/17/5 line in their first meeting, then followed that up with a 21/4/2 line in a blowout loss where he played just 25 minutes. Cousins had the 3rd-highest usage rate in the NBA last season at 34.1%, which was the highest of any center by a wide margin. He can fill up the stat sheet in a hurry, and despite the tough matchup, he remains an elite play tonight.

The 2014 runner-up for MVP, Harden absolutely dominated the Nuggets last season, and this season should be no different. Harden's 4 games against Denver resulted in the following lines: 24/10/10, 41/4/10, 28/4/7, (career-high) 50/10/4, giving him an average of 35/7/7 in 4 meetings. Harden was 6th in the NBA with a 31.6% usage rate last season, a number that jumped to 35.6% when Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas (both out tonight) were off the court. Everything lines up for a huge performance from the bearded superstar, and best of all, this game has the highest total on the night at 211.5.

With LaMarcus Aldridge gone to San Antonio, Lillard will be the man in Portland. That news is scary for opposing defenses, as Lillard has shown the ability to dominate the offensive end of the court at will. He had a 26.2% usage rate with Aldridge on the court in 2014-15, but with Portland now losing key players Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews as well, his usage jumps to an enormous 35%. He is the only seasoned offensive player in this offensive attack, and his price won't remain this low for very long. Expect him to be in the 10K+ range very soon. Portland is just a 2.5 point favorite in a game with a 205.5 point over/under tonight, which means this one should stay competitive until the final buzzer. The Pelicans had no answer for Stephen Curry last night, as he scored nearly 60 FP on both FD and DK. This is a prime spot for Lillard.

After one of the worst shooting performances of his life last night, “The Brow" is back at it tonight against Portland. In years past, this may have been a tough matchup, but as mentioned above, LaMarcus Aldridge is gone, and the Portland frontcourt stands little chance against one of the most dominant big men in the game today. I'm anticipating his ownership will be much lower than it should be tonight, as recency bias is already going to take effect after a disappointing opener against NBA Champion Golden State. This one has a high total and is expected to be close. Look for Davis to build on a frustrating night and revert to his MVP-caliber form from 2014-15, where he averaged 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.9 blocks per game.

Capela is going to be thrust into a bigger role tonight with Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas both out, and as we all know, facing this Denver frontcourt is an ideal matchup over the last few seasons. They ranked near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to both PF and C in 2014-15, and this year's team doesn't look to be significantly improved. The Rockets are incredibly thin down low with the injury to Motiejunas and suspension to Howard. Capela played in just 12 games in 2014-15, but his per-36 numbers were impressive (37.28 FD, 40.50 DK). He's a big presence down low at 6'10" and 240 pounds, and the Nuggets frontcourt is as soft as paper. He makes for a nice value play, especially on DK, where he comes in at minimum salary.

“HERO-tic" makes for a better play on FD at the SF position than he does on DK at an inflated price tag at PF, but he just continues to impress. In last night's win over Cleveland, he posted a 19/9 line while knocking down 3/4 from behind the arc. He only played 25 minutes, which is somewhat concerning, but at his fair price tag on FD, he makes for a great filler that you know will provide you with a solid floor and upside.

With Tony Wroten and Kendall Marshall still nursing injuries, Canaan is projected to draw the start tonight against the Celtics. He started 21 games last season, and proved to have value at a cheap price tag, averaging 16.6 points, 3.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per 36 minutes. He is never afraid to put up a lot of shots, as evidenced by his per-36 average of over 9 3-pointers attempted in 2014-15. At least for tonight, he should be locked in to big minutes, with T.J. McConnell being the only healthy PG sitting behind him on the depth chart.

Rumors are swirling that Copeland will draw the start tonight with Giannis Antetokuonmpo sitting out his 1-game suspension for a flagrant foul in the 2014-15 playoffs. If so, he will likely be locked into a solid role, with Jabari Parker also sitting out. He has shown upside as a shooter with his time in Indiana, averaging 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 50 appearances last season. He may not have much value moving forward, but for tonight, he makes for a great value play if he draws the start.