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Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.
Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.
Vegas Notes
Top Picks
Rajon Rondo (PG), Kings | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Nets | 42 | 0.95 | 22 | 21.6 | 41.6 | 106 | 39.9 |
Salary: FD: $6,800 DK: $7,600
Russell Westbrook is the obvious play, because with Durant out, he turns into WestGOD. His price is over $11,000 on both sites, as it should be. He is a triple-double threat, but you know who else is, Rajon Rondo. He has two triple-doubles in the last three games, and while Westbrook is a lock for big minutes, Rondo has upside next to his name as well. He has been playing 40+ minutes a game, due to the injuries in the back court. That will be the case again tonight, and for $4,000 less, Rondo is a smart play. You allow yourself to have some change left for other positions, while Westbrook leaves you fairly limited. Brooklyn ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards, and rank 25th in defensive efficiency.
James Harden (SG), Rockets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Nuggets | 39 | 1.30 | 18.6 | 34.2 | 37.1 | 107 | 50.7 |
Salary: FD: $10,000 DK: $10,100
After a dud in his last game, I will continue to stick with James Harden. Even when he does not shoot well, Harden will still log big fantasy points. He shot 8-22 last game, but still had over 40 fantasy points. Not a great number for the price tag, but you are paying for the floor and upside. Denver ranks 23rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards, and Harden had a similar game against Denver earlier this season. His shot was not dropping, but he still managed over 40 fantasy points. You expect his shot to drop more than not, so we can see that upside creep into the 50's and 60's at times. A Rondo-Harden duo seems to be a better points-per-dollar play.
Danilo Gallinari (SF), Nuggets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Rockets | 34 | 0.87 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 37.3 | 102 | 29.6 |
Salary: FD: $6,500 DK: $6,100
The Nuggets have been fairly impressive so far this season, ranking right in the middle for offensive efficiency. I say this is impressive, because they have a rookie point guard running the show, and have a banged up front court. Gallinari has been solid this season, when he has above average matchups, which is the case tonight. Houston ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing SF. Gallinari torched Houston in their first outing, for 47 DK points. At these prices, he can slide into your SF spot, regardless of the superstars you are surrounding him with.
Paul Millsap (PF), Hawks | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Celtics | 34 | 1.07 | 20.2 | 21.9 | 41.3 | 103 | 36.4 |
Salary: FD: $8,500 DK: $8,000
Paul Millsap has been one of the most consistent power forwards this season, and I will go one step further, and say one of the most consistent basketball players. Millsap is averaging 17-9-4 this season, with 2.4 steals per game. He is shooting 47% from the field, and simply can not be stopped right now. Boston has a -3.2 rebound differential, which has not been their strong suit in the last few seasons. Millsap has had plenty of success against Boston, averaging 16-7-4, with 4 blocks+ steals in three games last season. Millsap just continuously delivers, and will continuously be in my cash game lineups. I am also recommending Serge Ibaka, especially with his price tag.
Karl Anthony-Towns (C), Timberwolves | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Pacers | 31 | 1.10 | 20 | 25.5 | 43.9 | 95 | 34.1 |
Salary: FD: $7,100 DK: $7,500
On the second night of a back-to-back, I am not worried about the young rookie. He draws a very favorable matchup, and the possible rookie of the year keeps trucking along with monster games. He has 3+ blocks in all but two games this season, and he is averaging 16/10 on the season. He gives you the upside of a top priced center, but we are still getting him for a discount. His matchup with Indy would be scary in the past, but they have lacked defending centers this season. They rank in the bottom half in rebound differential, and 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers.
Value Plays
Ish Smith (PG - NO) FD: $5,800 DK: $5,300
Jrue Holiday is back, but do not worry, Ish Smith will continue to see 30 minutes, possibly/likely more. He is coming off back-to-back 40 fantasy point games, while posting 30+ point games in the two prior. The Raptors are right around the middle in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards, and Smith has thrashed teams the last few games. His price is climbing, but still makes for a solid value play.
Marco Belinelli (SG - SAC) FD: $3,800 DK: $4,200
With names like Russell Westbrook, and James Harden going tonight, I am digging in the next tier down for value. Marco Belinelli is going to see around 30 minutes tonight, and while he relies on scoring, he did post 25, and 30 point DK games prior to the Detroit game. He is worth a punt play.
James Johnson (SF - TOR) FD: $3,800 DK: $3,700
James Johnson is another bare-minimum play that will log right around 30 minutes. DeMarre Carroll is questionable again, and likely will not play, while Terrence Ross is out for two weeks. This leaves Toronto very thin. Johnson is a solid defensive producer, and is a high energy player. He is not going to surpass 12 real points, but in addition to his other stats, he has a nice upside for the price.
J.J. Hickson (PF - DEN) FD: $4,400 DK: $4,500
There is a chance Dwight Howard sits tonight, which would free up the middle for Kenneth Faried, and J.J. Hickson. Houston has a negative 3.2 rebound differential, which is no shocker given they have not had Howard on the court much this season. Denver is banged up badly, leaving Hickson to rack up 30 minutes or so. He has a much better matchup tonight against Houston.
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