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Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.
Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.
Vegas Notes
- We have 6 games on tonight's slate with Suns-Thunder (210.5, -15) having both the highest total and biggest spread.
- Clippers-Pelicans (208, -2.5) looks like the best target for offense with a close line and high total.
- Trailblazers-Jazz (193.5, -1.5) has the lowest total on the board, with the big question marks being Damian Lillard and Derrick Favors.
Top Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns (C), Wolves | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
at DET | 35 | 1.16 | 28.3 | 24.5 | 46.1 | 96.25 | 40.60 |
Salary: FD: $7,600 DK: $6,800
The Big KAT has really turned it on recently, with 40+ FP in 4 of his last 6 games. Tonight he'll face off against Andre Drummond and the Pistons for the second time this season. In their first matchup, Towns posted 40 DK points in just 27 minutes. I'm not thrilled with his price on FD, but on DK, he makes for an underpriced play with upside in all formats. DeAndre Jordan is a top option on FD dollar for dollar, but on DK, I'm looking at the savings with Towns.
Chris Paul (PG), Clippers | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
at NO | 36 | 1.22 | 22.8 | 25.8 | 55.4 | 102.75 | 42.70 |
Salary: FD: $9,000 DK: $9,100
Paul was a top cash game option last night, and he didn't disappoint, going for 44.8 DK points on what was overall a fairly low scoring night. Tonight he faces a New Orleans team that has been abysmal against opposing PG this season. As long as Blake Griffin is out, Paul will remain an elite option most nights, and matchups don't get any better than this one (save for maybe the Lakers). CP3 has now reached at least 39 DK points in each of his last 10 games. He is as safe as it gets tonight.
Draymond Green (PF), Warriors | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
at HOU | 36 | 1.16 | 30.7 | 20.1 | 51.5 | 117.25 | 41.76 |
Salary: FD: $9,200 DK: $9,300
It looks like Stephen Curry is likely to sit out once again, and now Draymond draws a prime matchup against a Rockets team that has really struggled against PF this season, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed. Dray struggled last night, shooting just 4-15 from the field, but still managed to post 31.75 DK points. I expect him to perform much better tonight and come at much lower ownership than he had last night. Dray still possesses monster upside, and his usage rate of 28.1% last night was 8% higher than his season number. I expect the offense to run through him tonight, and he'll be the key if the Warriors are going to win this one with the MVP sidelined.
Kevin Durant (SF), Thunder | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
vs PHO | 35 | 1.32 | 21.1 | 28.6 | 42.7 | 112.75 | 46.20 |
Salary: FD: $10,100 DK: $10,100
While this one certainly has the potential for a blowout, the Thunder are a team that I'm not as hesitant on in these types of spots. Durant and Westbrook have managed to meet or exceed value in blowouts due to their high usage rates and concentrated value. There are very few options at SF that have a high floor, and Durant should easily find a way to post 40+ FP even in a blowout. If the Suns keep this one close, he also has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. In their first matchup, Durant scored 59.25 DK points in just 31 minutes. He's a safe option with upside.
Tyreke Evans (PG/SG), Pelicans | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
vs LAC | 36 | 1.07 | 20.5 | 23.7 | 49.6 | 105.25 | 38.52 |
Salary: FD (PG): $7,400 DK (SG): $7,700
As mentioned above, this game has the best combination of close spread and high total, and Evans has been a solid option since his return from injury. He has at least 33 FP in 7 of his last 10 games, including 50+ in 3 of those contests. Reke can contribute across the board, which gives him a nice high floor. I prefer him on DK where he is SG eligible tonight, but I will also likely swap to CJ McCollum if Damian Lillard sits once again. In the event that Lillard plays, Evans is the best midrange option on the slate.
Value Plays
JJ Redick (SG - LAC) FD: $4,600 DK: $5,200
Redick is very scoring dependent, but he has also taken on a bigger offensive role with Blake Griffin on the shelf. Last night was a perfect example, as he scored 26 real points and just 29.25 DK points. However, the Pelicans are in a constant battle for worst defense in the NBA, and Redick will find open shots all night long. Fire him up on FD as an elite value.
Jrue Holiday (PG - NOP) FD: $5,300 DK: $5,500
Holiday has been solid off the bench for the Pelicans, and has reached the 29 point mark in 6 of his last 10 games. His floor is lower than we would like for cash games, but he will see most of his time against the Clippers' second unit. Holiday is locked into 25+ minutes, and has a solid 1.03 FPPM this season.
Gorgui Dieng (C - MIN) FD: $5,000 DK: $4,800
Dieng has been a revelation for the Wolves, and has at least 20 DK points in 8 of his last 9 games. There aren't a ton of values that stand out down low, but I'll be looking to Dieng due to his ability to stuff the stat sheet and rack up points in all categories.
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