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Winners from Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.
Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.
Vegas Notes
- Rockets-Thunder is sitting with a 223 total tonight, and it is the top priority for all formats. OKC has a team total of 116.
- Each game is over 200, and each team is in play tonight, especially given the value on the board.
Top Picks
Goran Dragic (PG), Heat | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Pelicans | 34 | 0.89 | 26.8 | 21.1 | 50.6 | 109 | 30.2 |
Salary: FD: $7,000 DK: $6,500
Without Chris Bosh this season, Goran Dragic has a 23.9% usgae rate, which is a tick up compared his usual usage. Dragic is averaging 17-5-8 over the last ten games, shooting 50% from the field. I love Dragic on DK a little more than FD tonight given the price, and also the softer pricing on FD. Miami is sitting with a big 109 total to target, and I expect Dragic to be a big part of it. New Orleans ranks dead last in efficiency against opposing point guards, and have allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game. Dragic has been above 30 fantasy points in eight of the last ten, and above 40 in five of those.
James Harden (SG), Rockets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Thunder | 38 | 1.33 | 18.7 | 32.6 | 40.7 | 107 | 50.5 |
Salary: FD: $10,400 DK: $10,500
You can chalk up the narrative play here, but also chalk up James Harden for a solid matchup. Oklahoma City ranks 14th in efficiency against shooting guards, and rank 15th in fantasy points allowed per game. It is an average matchup on paper, but Harden is not your average shooting guard. He is averaging 29-6-9 over the last ten games, and has averaged 35-6-5 in two games against the Thunder this season. Shooting guard is a spot you can pay up for Harden, with no other player at the position having the same floor/ceiling.
Kevin Durant (SF), Thunder | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Rockets | 36 | 1.37 | 22.9 | 30.2 | 45.3 | 116 | 49.3 |
Salary: FD: $10,700 DK: $10,400
Kevin Durant is probable tonight, so no worries there for me. He is averaging 28-8-6 over the last ten games, shooting 52% from the field. He is another player to pay up for at such a weak position, and he is my favorite OKC player to get exposure to in this game. Houston has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, and rank 29th defensively. Durant has averaged 31-8-1 against Houston this season, and I expect much of the same.
Thaddeus Young (PF), Nets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Hornets | 32 | 1.01 | 24.6 | 21.9 | 46.7 | 102 | 32.3 |
Salary: FD: $7,800 DK: $7,100
Thaddeus Young is the easy call at power forward tonight, and this is a spot that can make a difference if you manage to squeeze him in. He is averaging 17-10-2 over the last ten games, and has been extremely efficient from the field. He also has 2.5 blocks + steals per game to go with that solid line, and will enjoy a tasty matchup. Charlotte has allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards, and they rank 21st in efficiency against opposing power forwards. Young has been cruising without Joe Johnson as well, so his floor and ceiling has seen a pretty sizable boost.
Enes Kanter (C), Thunder | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Rockets | 23 | 1.15 | 29.1 | 23.5 | 49.4 | 116 | 26.4 |
Salary: FD: $5,400 DK: $5,200
Enes Kanter has been a GPP the past week or so, but on a four game slate with some needed value, he will enter my cash game lineups. A 116 total is easy to target here due to OKC only having a few scorers. Houston ranks 19th in efficiency against opposing centers, and have allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game. It has been the most per game in the last ten games. Kanter scores and rebounds, and that's about it. Houston fails to stop both, ranking 23rd in rebounding, and being horrible on defense. Kanter has averaged 14 and 11 in two games against the Rockets this season.
Value Plays
Ray McCallum (PG - MEM) FD: $3,700 DK: $3,200
Ray McCallum is the bare-minimum play to help you pay up for the studs tonight. His minutes should be around 25-28 minutes, as Memphis signed Jordan Farmar to help relieve on the bench. The matchup is solid against the Lakers, who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. At this price, McCallum will easily surpass value.
Michael Beasley (SF - HOU) FD: $4,800 DK: $4,900
It's March basketball, and somehow Michael Beasley has become an actual thing. He is averaging 17 and 7 in the last six games, shooting 58% from the field. He will be relied upon to bring some scoring off the bench again tonight, given this game is projected to be a shootout.
Josh Richardson (SG - MIA) FD: $4,400 DK: $4,300
Josh Richardson is averaging 16-3-1 over the last five games, playing right around 29 minutes a game. He is shooting nearly 70% from the field, and is also tacking on 2.2 blocks + steals per game. He draws a very favorable matchup against New Orleans.
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