Vegas Win Total Projection: 26.5

2014: 52 Wins, 4th in West

2015 Outlook

The Trailblazers will have a more than difficult time matching their win percentage and record from last season. The team has gone to a full rebuilding mode after unrestricted free-agents like LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, and Wesley Matthews have left, while Nicolas Batum and Steve Blake have been traded. They've done a good job in this short period of time getting young, high-value, high-motor players, but it certainly won't be enough to get them even close to last season. With the likes of the Thunder, an underrated Jazz team, and very young, deep Timberwolves team, the division won't be easy. This season will most certainly be a step-back, but they've done a good job in potentially getting a quick rebuild accomplished.

Fantasy Focus

Top Fantasy Options

Obviously at this point, the Trailblazers only returning starter is Damian Lillard. I think he will be their top points, assists man, as well as get 4-6 rebounds a game. Last season, Dame averaged 35.7 minutes per game in the regular season, 40.7 in the post season, I think we can expect somewhere in between, based on how well the team is playing throughout the season. For example, they may play Golden State and end up down by 30 at half, if that's the case, Lillard maybe gets 30 minutes played, where as a game against Minnesota that's within reaching distance, he may end up with 40-43. With Damian, he's the proven starter, a known quantity, and someone you can rely on. But when you are picking him, I'd be making sure it's not on a back-to-back against an above average team or a game against a team like the Spurs, Cavs, or Golden State. Besides that, you should expect to see Lillard's stats go up, that includes turnovers and shots per game. I don't expect his assists to go up but rather stay the same, because assists are a judgment on the team and the player, obviously the player is there in Lillard, but the team is a big question mark, certainly not to live up to last season's play.

Hyped Up

I would say Damian Lillard is this guy because of the team declining in talent and going young. Everyone expects he's going to get more minutes, shots, assists, essentially everything, but I think people underestimate the value of playing with a good team. When I look at it, he's only averaged 2.7 TO's per, but that was with virtually the same starting 5, and a playoff team. When the talent drops off, historically, turnovers haven't faired well for point-guards. Michael Carter-Williams and Russell Westbrook are both examples, Carter-Williams went from 4.2 to 3.2 turnovers per game, going from Philadelphia to Milwaukee, and Westbrook without Durant went from 3.7 to 4.4 on average per game. Those numbers don't jump off the board, but there were 19 games that Westbrook had over 6 turnovers, almost ¼ of the season. Compare those to Lillard's situation and expect 1-2 more per game on average, going from a good to a not-so-good Blazers team. I am basically throwing some more “wood on the fire" for Dame with the turnovers and field goal percentage, but as far as minutes played and just increased numbers overall, we should expect those to increase. I didn't want to put Damian in the “Hyped Up" category, but people across the northwest think he's going to become one of the top-5 players in the league, and I think that's a little overboard.

GPP Gems

With the Blazers, there are a lot of unknowns, I think the one thing that is known is Dame will be a starter and there is a growing belief that C.J. MCCollum is going to be next to him. I think C.J. will beyour biggest asset, besides Dame, in fantasy as far as the trailblazers go. C.J. Last regular season averaged just under 16 minutes per game, with 39% shooting, to go along with 6.8 ppg. However, McCollum in the postseason, given the starting role? A totally different story. C.J. averaged 33.2 minutes, 17 points per game, and 47% from the field. With the loss of Afflalo and Wesley Matthews, this is the guy who could be a great pick-up. He was an unsung hero in the postseason for his defense, with a steal per game, and occasionally getting a block or two. He'll see somewhere between 30-35 minutes a game, I think he averages 15-16 a game, and a couple of assists. As well, I think he becomes a decent defender and adds steals, blocks, and a couple more rebounds per game.

A couple other players to watch out for would be Noah Vonleh, Gerald Henderson, and Mason Plumlee. I see Vonleh as one of the most athletic, versatile players in this league. He will probably see 20-25 minutes a night tops and an all around stat guy. I could see him have low-teens in points and rebounds, as well as gathering a couple blocks, assists, shooting a good percentage.

Henderson, a guy who shoots the ball well averaging 43-44% from the field, could see an increased role without too many veterans and wing players on this team. He can play a 2 and possibly a 3, but I think we'll see him have 3-4 assists per game and increase his defensive stats. Minutes played, while being up in the air, I think we see him stick to around 28 minutes a night.

And Plumlee, a guy who had a great season when Lopez was out, can be an athletic all-around type of guy. He can move up and down the court well, which gives him more chances for defensive and offensive stats. I see him as someone who will increase his field goal percentage and minutes per game. Last season, averaging 21, I think he could see that go to 25-28.

Overall, the Blazers have a lot of young, athletic, guys, CJ McCollum is the guy who has the most potential to become a good fantasy player, while Noah Vonleh, Mason Plumlee, and Henderson, all have some great upside, but could also lose out to other players based on the youth and depth. My worry with the Trailblazers, fantasy wise, is when they play good teams or back-to-backs, that it gets out of hand and regular starters get less minutes played.

Team Statistics

The team was averaging 102.8 points per game, I don't see that number going up, but otherwise going down. Without a sure fire all-star in LaMarcus Aldridge and good shooters like Wesley Matthews, Arron Afflalo, we can expect those numbers to go down. Defensively, I see a drop-off, like everything with the Trailblazers this season, but not as much others may think. They've gotten more athletic and more depth, along with defensive additions like Henderson, Aminu, Vonleh, and Davis. It gives them a shot at being an on par defensive team. VegasInsider.com reckons the over/under in wins is 26.5 this season. I see them being around 27-29, maybe flirting with 30. They've lost a lot as I said previously, so its hard to find a bright spot, but if there is one for fantasy players it's the fact that most of these players are athletic, high-motor guys, who should all be low cost, high upside players in the fantasy space.


Resources: VegasInsider.com



Comments
JasonG4s
I am with you on McCollum being the likely breakout player this season.