NBA Winners from Downtown: 11-21-15

By: Zach Qualtieri, Updated November 21, 2015

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Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- The Miami Heat are huge 14 point home favorites tonight against the 76ers. On this slate it is easy to avoid players from this game in cash games. Both teams do however have pieces that are worth a look in GPPs.

- The Rockets/Knicks game has the highest point total of the night and is a game to target. Both teams have averaged at least 98 points a game this season and Houston has allowed over 107 points per game.

- There are two games that lines are not available for at the moment but both games should be high scoring as 3 of the 4 teams average over 100 points a game.

- Overall this is projected to be a low scoring night with only 3 teams having a point total over 100 points and 3 teams having a point total below 94.

Top Picks

Mike Conley (PG), Grizzlies
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Spurs	34	0.92	19.5	23.4%	40.01	91.25	31.28

Salary: FD: $6,700 DK: $6,300

Point guard does not have many top tier options tonight and I would much rather spend down for Conley on this slate. Conley is playing fantastic basketball over his past 3 games and has gone over 20 points in each of those games. He is averaging 7 assists per game and has added 7 steals in that time frame. He has not scored below 36 fantasy points in those games and gets a great match up against the Spurs. The Spurs rank 25th in defending the position and Conley should continue his hot streak. Dollar for dollar there is not a better point guard on the slate.

James Harden (SG), Rockets
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Knicks	38	1.30	18.6	32.8%	37.07	104.5	49.40

Salary: FD: $10,300 DK: $10,200

If I could only spend up for one high dollar option on tonight's slate Harden would be my choice. He has bounced back every time he has had a so-so game for him this season. In two of his past three games where he failed to score 50 fantasy points, Harden scored over 70 fantasy points the following game. The Rockets should also be without Dwight Howard tonight which will leave more responsibilities on Harden. In the past two games where Howard has sat, Harden has averaged 34 points, 6.5 rebound and 11.5 assists. In a game that has the highest point total of the night Harden is a must in all my lineups.

Paul George (SF), Pacers
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Bucks	36	1.02	18.9	30.1%	37.3	98.75	36.72

Salary: FD: $9,500 DK: $9,700

Paul George gets the nod slightly over LeBron James tonight. While both are great plays George is cheaper and has the better match up. George is hot and has now scored at least 26 points in 8 straight games. He has not scored below 40 fantasy points in that time frame and has 4 double-doubles in those 8 games. He is averaging close to 9 rebounds and 4.5 assists to go along with 12 steals in that time frame. Against a Bucks team that ranks 25th in allowing fantasy points to small forwards, I see no reason for George not to continue his hot streak.

Paul Millsap (PF), Hawks
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Cavaliers	36	1.07	20.2	22.4%	41.28	TBD	38.52

Salary: FD: $8,500 DK: $8,200

Millsap is your top choice at a thin power forward spot tonight. He is Mr. Consistent and has only scored below 30 fantasy points one time this season. Last season against Cleveland, Millsap averaged 18 points and 8 rebounds which is right in line with his 18.1/9.2 averages this season. The Cavs are also beat up in the front court and will be without Timofey Mozgov in this one. Millsap should easily hit 4X value in this game and is as safe as they come at the power forward spot.

Andre Drummond (C), Pistons
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
Wizards	37	1.19	20.2	23.1%	48.49	TBD	44.03

Salary: FD: $10,100 DK: $9,900

Drummond is a must in all my cash game lineups due to his elite rebounding. He has pulled in double-digit rebounds in every game this season and only has two games below 15. His rebounding rate is 26.7% which is 5% higher than the next closest player. He is scoring 19.3 points a game to go along with his unreal 18.3 rebound and is the only player in the NBA with a double-double in every game this season. He is a lock and load player for me right now as he is going to continue to get you 40 plus fantasy points on a nightly bases.

Value Plays

Dennis Schroder (PG - ATL) FD: $5,100 DK: $5,600

Jeff Teague is looking like he is going to sit out once again tonight. If he does that will leave Schroder with another start. In his past three games, two of which were starts Schroder is averaging 13.67 points and 8.33 assists. He has not gone below 28 fantasy points in that time frame and should continue that streak tonight.

C.J. Miles (SF - IND) FD: $4,800 DK: $4,700

Miles will get a big boost if George Hill sits once again tonight but is still in play with the way he has been shooting the ball of the past 4 games. In those 4 games Miles is shooting 50% and has made 11 3-pointers. He is averaging 16 points a game and 24.56 fantasy points. He needs to be scoring to produce but until he cools off, Miles will remain a top value.

Tristan Thompson (PF - CLE) FD: $5,300 DK: $4,800

Thompson is an elite rebounder off the bench for the Cavs. He is 7th in the NBA in rebounding rate at 20.9% and is averaging 9.3 a game. He should see more minutes with the injury to Timofey Mozgov and is coming off a double-double his last game. I like Thompson to get get another double-double tonight and 30 plus fantasy points.

Clint Capela (C - HOU) FD: $4,300 DK: $4,700

You know the drill by now. Dwight Howard sits Clint Capela starts. That should be the case tonight on the second night of a back to back for the Rockets. In Capela's four games starting this season he is averaging 9.8 points and 8.5 rebounds to go along with 2 blocks. He has not scored below 20 fantasy points in any of his starts and should easily hit that tonight. If your spending down at the center spot tonight Capela is your top option.

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