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The second week of NBA concludes tonight with a 9 game slate. Ten of the 18 teams are on the back end of a back-to-back. Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.
Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.
Vegas Notes
Top Picks
John Wall (PG), Wizards | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Hawks | 35 | 1.13 | 16.5 | 28.5 | 41.75 | 100.5 | 39.55 |
Salary: FD: $9,500 DK: $9,000
Point guard is loaded once again tonight but question marks surround some of the top plays. There are questions if Chris Paul will be able to give it a go tonight and there is a blowout factor associated with Stephen Curry. This leaves John Wall as the safest stud point guard for me on this slate. Wall has been great to start the season. He is averaging 19.2 points per game and 8.2 assists. He has scored at least 39 fantasy points in every game this season. Where Wall has really stood out this season is on the defensive end of the floor. He ranks 8th in blocks per game with 2.4 and 2nd in steals per game with 2.6. He is the only player in the NBA to rank top ten in both categories. When you add in the fact he is 3rd in the NBA in assists per game and 23rd in scoring, you are looking at a player with a very high floor and ceiling.
James Harden (SG), Rockets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@ Clippers | 38 | 1.30 | 18.6 | 33.3 | 37.7 | 105.25 | 49.40 |
Salary: FD: $9,800 DK: $10,000
James Harden has bounced back nicely from his slow start to the season. Two out of his past three games have been above 50 fantasy points. Harden is one of the true elite scores in the NBA and despite shooting 34% this season is averaging 27 points a game. The Rockets/Clippers game has the highest point total on the board tonight and should be a uptempo game. Harden has struggled against the Clippers but really turned it on in the playoffs against them last year. In that 7 game series Harden averaged 25.4 points per game and 8.1 assists. I am fully expecting similar numbers for Harden in this game.
Kawhi Leonard (SF), Spurs | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
Hornets | 33 | 1.10 | 15.6 | 27.5 | 35.94 | 101.75 | 36.30 |
Salary: FD: $8,200 DK: $7,900
Kawhi Leonard continues to impress in his fourth season. He has always been an elite defender and that has not changed this season. He has had at least 3 combined steal/blocks in all but one game this season. Where Leonard has made the biggest jump is on the offensive end of the floor. He is averaging 21.5 points per game this season which is 9.1 points higher than his career average. He has a 27.5 usage rate and has taken at least 16 shots in every game this season. He has become the Spurs number 1 option on both ends of the floor. Out of all the small forwards on this slate Leonard has the highest floor and is my top choice for cash games.
Anthony Davis (PF), Hornets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Mavericks | 36 | 1.36 | 18.9 | 26.3 | 40.15 | 102.25 | 48.96 |
Salary: FD: $10,600 DK: $10,600
The Brow showed last night why he is one of the top options no matter position every night. He had an absolute monster game scoring a career high 43 points while grabbing 10 boards. Davis can do everything on the floor and what really sets him apart from other star players is his defensive powers. He has at least 2 blocks in every game this season and had 4 steals last night. A game against the Mavericks and their middle of the pack defense against power forwards. Davis should be in line for another big game tonight. While a 70 point fantasy outing is probably asking for too much, a 50 point outing looks like Davis' floor tonight.
Brook Lopez (C), Nets | |||||||
Opponent | Minutes | Fantasy Points Per Minute | Defensive Efficiency Rating | Usage Rate | Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed | Vegas Team Total | Projection |
@Bucks | 31 | 1.08 | 22 | 24.0 | 46.61 | 94.25 | 33.48 |
Salary: FD: $7,900 DK: $6,900
With injuries to the top centers tonight looks like a great night to spend down a little at the position. Lopez has been phenomenal the past two games. He is coming off two straight double-doubles with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. He has taken over the Nets go to scorer role and has averaged 17 shots the past two games. He gets a date with the Bucks who give up 103.5 points per game and are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. They have the worst rebounding percentage and have the 4th largest rebound per game difdeferential at -5.8. All signs are pointing for another 20/10 game for Lopez in this one.
Value Plays
Ish Smith (PG - NO) FD: $4,500 DK: $4,400
If you want to get some of the studs in your lineup tonight, you are going to need to save some salary and Smith is the player to do it with. With Jrue Holiday looking like he will miss this game for rest, Smith should get the start and with it 32 plus minutes. In the three games that Smith has seen at least 29 minutes, he has scored at least 27 fantasy points. The Mavericks have been great to start the season in defending point guards ranking 10th in fantasy points allowed to the position but Smith should still have enough volume to easily hit value in this game.
Marcus Thornton (SG- HOU) FD: $4,100 DK: $4,800
Marcus Thornton continues to start for the injured Terrence Jones and is seeing heavy minutes. He is averaging 34.75 minutes a game and has not been shy while on the court. He has at least 14 shots in every game and has scored at least 16 points in all but one game. He is a scorer first and foremost but has done just enough the glass to give himself a decent floor While his price has risen especially on DraftKings where he is no longer a must play, he is still a top value play in the game with the highest point total of the night.
Dwight Powell (PF - DAL) FD: $4,500 DK: $4,500
Powell has been a revelation off the bench for the Mavs and has really excelled rebounding. He has 4 straight games with at least 8 rebounds. He is averaging close to a double-double on the season with 10.6 points and 8.2 rebounds. He should continue to get plenty of run with injuries and minute restrictions on the Mavs starters. In a game against the Pelicans and their league worse -8.6 rebound deferential Powell should have no problem racking up the boards and has a great chance for his third straight 30 point fantasy game.
Dewayne Dedmon (C - ORL) FD: $3,700 DK: $3,800
Dewayne Dedmon is getting the start with Nikola Vucevic injured and has to be in consideration at his price point. Dedmon is a defensive specialist who can get blocks in a hurry. In limited playing time this season he is averaging 2 blocks per game. He can add some points and rebounds averaging just over 5 in both categories. He has scored over 20 fantasy points the past two games but has also fouled out in both games. With a date against the 76ers who give up the 7th most fantasy points to centers Dedmon has a chance to capitalize on his starting role if he can stay in the game.
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