There is so much more to daily fantasy sports then just knowing the numbers. While numbers may be a universal language, there are actually many numbers that don't appear in a box score. There is a large difference between watching games and looking at box scores. For example: If your simply looking at box scores you notice a guy goes 2-12 from the field with 6 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds 2 steals and three turnovers, and then look at his price tag of $6000, you would immediately think he's not in play. If you were watching this game though, you saw multiple drives to the rim that almost fell through, missed foul calls, 5 assists that could've been if his teammates made jumpers, 2 blocks that he was called for fouls instead, etc. Now, this may have been a bit of an extreme example, but I want to express the extra edge DFS players have that watch games vs. players who hunt box scores. There are a lot of "ghost" numbers that are invisible in a box score that you can pickup from watching the game. If your creating a scoring rubric at home based solely on numbers, your doing it wrong, because the guys who are most successful watch and study games to increase their edge a bit over others. In DFS your projecting a player's opportunity for fantasy points, not actually fantasy points themselves. You may know a player will take between 12-16 shots based on your system, algorithm, or subjective thinking, but you cannot confirm that he'll make 50% of these shots. I'll provide you tonight with my favorite high, mid, and low priced palys that I beleive offer the best opportunity for their price tag.
Kris Dunn - Guard, Providence. (FD Price $10,500, DK Price $10,900)
I'm really going outside the box here, I know. I typically try to avoid listing obvious top plays like Dunn, Simmons, etc., as I feel most readers already knew to take these players going into a slate, but Providence is a road dog here and this may scare some off of him. His price is also not exactly something to jump up and down about either. Creighton plays very fast, and while Whitehead got caught in foul trouble hell against this team and burned me on Saturday, I would've played him in that spot 10 times out of 10. Dunn will enjoy the quicker than average pace and this could lead to extra steals and run outs. I don'd mind Bentil, but I do prefer Dunn over him even at a higher tag. Many different ways you can go at guard tonight, but Dunn should be in all your lineups, especially since pricing is a bit softer than normal tonight.
Anthony Gill - Forward, Virginia. (FD Price $7,500, DK Price $6,800)
Gill is far and away the most improved player on UVA this season. Brogdon is still arguably the best talent, but he was great last year, while Gill took a backseat to him. These two players now combined for a usage rate of about 44.0 when on the floor together with Brogdon having a slight edge. I prefer Gill here tonight because, forwards are not exactly the cats meow tonight on FD and DK and Gill is a very safe player. I know your looking at that last GTech game thinking 26 minutes and only 13.9 fps? Well Gill suffered from severe foul trouble and it really affected his overall game. I love the opportunity from him to bounce back at home tonight. He's his value at this number in 5 of his last 8, and coming off a true dud, I love him to have a strong home showing.
Shavon Shields - Forward, Nebraska. (FD Price $7,300, DK Price N/A)
I speak all the time about how to almost never climb the price ladder for a player, but I barely discuss scooping up players whose price heads south. Shields is a perfect example of this tonight. Andrew White has actually surpassed him in price, and some people may climb up and grab him at $7,800, but I'll actually be climbing down and playing Shields. Shields is too good to be price this low and draws the fantasy goldmine that is the Golden Gophers. I love Shields to get himself back on track and have many opportunities to fill it up tonight all over the box score.
Bryant McIntosh - Guard, Northwestern. (FD Price $6,400, DK Price $8,100)
Alex Poythress - Forward, Kentucky. (FD Price $6,300, DK Price $5,800)
Wes Clark - Guard, Missouri. FD Price $5,300, DK Price $5,100)
Jeff Roberson - Forward, Vanderbilt. FD Price $5,300, DK Price $4,800)
Glynn Watson, Jr. - Guard, Nebraska. FD Price $4,800, DK Price N/A)
Remy Abell - Guard, Xavier. FD Price $4,700, DK Price N/A)
The argument can be made that Abell is just a minutes eater, but the truth is at $4,700 he rarely kills you. He has gone at least 31 minutes in his last four games, and has scored less than 6 points only once in his last 7 games. Xavier will cruise tonight to a victory, and should certainly surpass their season average of 80 points. This will lead to fantasy points being spread throughout, and Abell getting over 30+ minutes could have him inline to make you happy at $4700.