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Dunkle's Daily CBB Dish 1-19-16

By: J J, Updated January 19, 2016

One of the hardest things to project in DFS CBB is injuries. I'm not talking about predicting the risk factor in a player getting hurt during a game cause that's just nonsense, but I'm referring to projecting player performance for players returning from injury, playing through an injury, or even which players seek to gain the most from another player being out. As good as your number projection system may be, the injury factor will always have subjective opinions, cause there is only so much information you will get. How you process that information, if correct; can give you an edge. Tonight, there is injury news all around the league, and how well you adjust for it will be the driving factor in you cashing. I'll provide you my top plays and any plays that relate to injury news.

High-Priced Plays

Ben Simmons - Forward, LSU. (FD Price $11,100, DK Price $11,200)

Let me start by saying this is not exactly the match-up you dream of if your Ben Simmons. On the road against arguably the top defense in the SEC is not exactly how you draw up fantasy gold. I like Simmons here though, because he is a match-up proof player, and will be far under-owned tonight vs. other nights. His upside is the same night in and night out and that 50+ fpps. Coach Jones is comfortable benching Simmons when they have a lead if he gets two early fouls, but tonight LSU will be playing from behind and need Simmons's talents all night to hang around. Simmons is my favorite play of the night not because I think he'll outscore Kris Dunn (he still may), but because many more people will play Dunn and leave Simmons in the player pool. There are many cheap options tonight where you can fit both in easily and I'll be playing both together.

Kris Dunn - Guard, Providence. (FD Price $10,100, DK Price N/A)

Welcome to chalk city, where the projected ownership exceed 60%. Playing Dunn tonight is not even a thought or question. Think of tonight as if you have to roster 3 guards and 5 forwards on Fanduel with a salary cap of $49,900. Player pricing is far too cheap with all the injury news lurking to not run out Dunn tonight. Providence gets a small bump in pace playing Butler, but Dunn being home tonight is key. You know Dunn's floor is the high 20s, and his ceiling is the high 40s, so him burning you is almost out of the question. I do love him here to touch 40 fps after a few mediocre games for his standard. Providence will need Dunn's best tonight for the win, and I expect him to have a great all around game to exceed 40 fps for value.

Mid-Priced Plays

Shonn Miller - Forward, Connecticut. (FD Price $6,800, DK Price N/A)

Miller was subject to foul trouble against Houston which limited him to only 21 minutes. This was his lowest playing time on the court since December 2nd, and he still played well. Miller has been playing very confident as of late and UConn should cruise past Tulane tonight. Miller has scored no less than 10 actual points since November, and his rebounding is consistent. He has block/steal upside along with potential for an assist or two which could be very possible tonight with many easy baskets expected. A very safe player that certainly has a good chance to exceed value tonight at this price against Tulane.

Thomas Bryant - Forward, Indiana. (FD Price $6,700, DK Price $6,400)

There are only 18 teams in NCAA D1 that average less rebounds per game than Illinois. Over half of these, I didn't even realize were D1 schools. Thomas Bryant is a true center which not many teams have and I think he can be in serious cleanup mode tonight on the glass. His price has been recently dropped, and he draws a fantastic home match-up. He has a nice opportunity to pile up blocks tonight as well, and has been doing a good job lately staying out of foul trouble. Easy buckets at the rim should be the norm for Bryant en route to a strong night for his price.

Markus Kennedy - Forward, SMU. (FD Price $6,500, DK Price $7,100)

Sometimes in DFS, you don't even love a player on a given night, but their price drops too low. Kennedy was this same price on Sunday, and it is too cheap. On a per minute basis, Kennedy is a top NCAA Forward. Though he rarely exceeds 27-28 minutes, his numbers from game to game are palatable. SMU draws a nice mach-up tonight and gains a bit in pace playing Houston. I like Kennedy the most tonight on SMU for the price.

James Robinson - Guard, Pittsburgh. (FD Price $6,200, DK Price $6,300)

I'm not really sure what happened on FanDuel here with Robinson. He was $7,400 on Saturday against BC, and now is down to $6,200. I get that Robinson doesn't score all that often, but he plays virtually the entire game and is an assist machine at home. I know he has made value at this price just once in his last six, but this price drop is very nice. I like Robinson to perform well tonight against NC State, and his price is just too cheap.

Low-Priced Plays

Robert Johnson - Guard, Indiana. (FD Price $5,100, DK Price $5,200)

Johnson is another player tonight who has been issued a price drop by the Fanduel gods. Johnson will typically provide you with nice peripherals and if his shot is falling can really be a good play for this price. Foul trouble on the road haunted him in his last game, but he'll have ample opportunities to score tonight, along with poking holes elsewhere in the box score. Indiana is projected to score as soon as Illinois gets off the bus, so points will be the norm for the Hoosiers tonight. Johnson is simply priced to low in this spot.

Jalen Adams - Guard, Connecticut. (FD Price $4,600, DK Price N/A)

Adams was moved into the starting lineup on Sunday and it's been confirmed that he will be starting again tonight. When given minutes, Adams has produced nicely and tonight will be a good chance to prove that again. As mentioned before, Tulane is outmatched here and UConn will have fantasy points to go around. Adams has the opportunity to pick up easy baskets and assists in transition along with swiping some passes as well. For nearly minimum price, this is a steal.

Anthony Perez-Cortesia - Forward, Mississippi. (FD Price $4500, DK Price $4,400)

Tomasz Gielo - Forward, Mississippi. (FD Price $4800, DK Price $4,700)

I've mentioned both players here, as both get a minutes bump tonight with Saiz being out for Mississippi. Mississippi is lacking at the forward position as it is, so barring foul trouble both players should see a good run. Instead of choosing one over the other, I'll be playing both guys. For their prices, there is little to think they will burn you and both should see north of 25 minutes. Vegas sees this as a close game even without Saiz, so guys not named Stefan Moody will need to step up. I see these two being able to pickup the slack tonight and reach value at their small price tags.

Comments
JasonG4s
JasonG4s
Do you prefer going Simmons and Dunn, or Dunn and balanced everywhere else? In tournaments.
uncl3dunkl3
uncl3dunkl3
Pricing is rather soft tonight, so I'd prefer rolling both out together with punts in tournaments. Simmons is def tourney worthy as Dunn mixed with balance will be what I expect to see most of tonight.