The season is winding down, and every game going forward for each team is their most important game of the year. Win or lose, it still makes the next game that much more important for seeding in their conference tournament and even in the big dance. Both sites are offering a 10 or more game main slate, with options upon options to choose from. Tonight, there are some real juicy fantasy games, as a few bad teams are matched up against each-other. As usual, there is also looming injury news and playing the right guys using this news is key. I've noticed by going through the slate, that a few guys have had some good games that have driven their price up to beyond the norm, and as always we do not point chase. Don't ever let recent performances from a guy you've watched play all year allow you to go against a disciplined style of DFS. Always keep a price in mind for a player that would be the most you'd be willing to pay for them, and never go against this. Continuing to roster an average player during a hefty price climb is a sure fire way to be let down. Below are my top plays for the slate whose prices I'm very comfortable paying for.
High-Priced Plays
Ben Simmons - Forward, LSU. (FD Price $11,200, DK Price $11,400)
It's no surprise that I'm right back on the Simmons bandwagon tonight. I was off only for a few slates, but this had to to with other tight pricing, and his academic issues forcing him out of the starting lineup. Well, his time was served, and now he's poised for a strong game tonight. Two teams that will be playing at an extremely fast pace means only extra possessions for the future #1 pick. No Horsnby tonight, will create extra options for him and other teamates which I'll mention below as well, but I expect Simmons's high usage rate to be even higher tonight than usual. Arkansas is not a good defensive team by any means, and I love LSU to bounceback off their two recent losses tonight against Arkansas who is getting too much credit from Vegas tonight.
Nate Mason - Guard, Minnesota. (FD Price $8,700, DK Price N/A)
There is an unwritten rule in CBB, and it relates to playing studs against Rutgers. Nate Mason is one of Minnesota's studs and he has been playing his best ball of the season recently. This price is certainly not where I'd like it to be, but he could seriously drop 40 fps tonight against Rutgers if he wants to. His usage in this offense recently has been unreal, and Rutgers doesn't stop anyone. They constantly allow their opponents open jump shots, easy paths to the rim, and expect Mason to load up the box score with points and assists. Very rarely this season have I felt so comfortable running out Minnesota guys, but fading the entire Gopher team tonight would not be advised.
Zach Smith - Forward, Texas Tech. (FD Price $7,700, DK Price $7,000)
Zach Smith has been a model citizen for consistency, since Odiase went down to injury. Tonight he draws a TCU team who gets pummeled by talented big men, and tonight should be no different. On Fanduel, I am not in love with this price, but on Draftkings don't even think twice about it. Smith has mid 30 upside with a floor in the low 20s. He is not someone that can burn you tonight, and for a big man, he plays a ton of minutes. More of a cash game play in my eyes, as his ceiling is certainly not that great, but his high floor proves him to be a decent option in GPPs as well.
Mid-Priced Plays
Jordan Murphy - Forward, Minnesota. (FD Price $6,900, DK Price N/A)
Jordan Murphy makes the second article in a row for me here. I said when he played Maryland, that I love his game and foul trouble is the only thing that holds him back. He made the Maryland front court look silly and I expect no different tonight against Rutgers this front court. The only person that will stop Murphy tonight is himself. I mentioned above that you play your studs vs. Rutgers, and I personally consider Murphy a stud. At home, he is far more under control with his fouling issue, and if he sees 30 minutes of court time, he should easily exceed value tonight.
Eli Carter - Guard, Boston College. (FD Price $6,800, DK Price $7,500)
Eli Carter is really not a player I like at all. He shoots way to many difficult shots, and doesn't nearly get his teammates involved as much as he should be. I understand that his team doesn't help him all that much, but his 36% field goal percentage really bothers me. As much as I don't like him as a player though, this is a very good spot for him tonight. At home, he does shoot much better, and the volume will be there as always tonight from him. Virginia Tech is a bad team as well, and after BC's recent awful performance, I think they bounce back as a team here. Vegas has this spread at six, and for this to stay close Carter will have to perform well, and I'm confident he will.
Tim Quarterman - Forward/Guard, LSU. (FD Price $6,000, DK Price $6,500)
The injury to Hornsby will leave many wanting to play Patterson, and I cannot blame them for this. I will have more Quarterman shares than Patterson though because his floor is much higher due to him primarily plays the point. Patterson has become more of a minutes eater this year, after his decent campaign last year and he is so reliant on hitting threes for value. Quarterman though, provides great peripherals and should play as many minutes as he can handle tonight. With Hornsby in the lineup, Quarterman's floor was in the high teens, and with the usage bump he should be able to exceed value with the projected pace of this game.
Low-Priced Plays
Marcus Lee - Forward, Kentucky. (FD Price $5,200, DK Price $5,600)
Injuries to the Kentucky's front court are mounting and Lee is the only safe guy left. Expect Lee to be the highest owned player on the slate tonight, as he is the only player left that Calipari can trust in his front court. Norris has helped Alabama out defensively on the inside, but he doesn't scare me off of Lee in this spot due to projected usage for him down low. Kentucky should win easily tonight regardless of who is in the front court. I will also give mention to Humphries and Skal below as if Willis and Poythress are out, Kentucky will be extremely thin there. Regardless of those two's injury desingation, you can play Lee with a lot of confidence tonight.
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