We have another typical Thursday night slate with 9-10 games on each site. Nights like tonight, most will look at projected totals and think they need heavy exposure to Duke, SMU/Memphis, and Indiana, but I don't necessarily agree here. Always remember that when building DFS lineups, your not targeting games your targeting players. Sometimes player pricing does make sense to target certain players in those high scoring games, but this is not always the case. You'll see below that I do have players I like in some of these games, but I'm not building my entire lineup around these teams. I'm always looking for value regardless of the projected total/tempo, and never immediately think I need exposure to multiple guys in game X,Y,Z. Always let player pricing be the driving factor in your lineup construction process. Certainly use Vegas totals as a start, but never really purely on this. Below are all my top plays for tonight's slate.
High-Priced Plays
Brandon Ingram - Forward/Guard, Duke. (FD Price $9,000, DK Price $9,300)
Remember that time Brandon Ingram's floor was high 20's/low 30s? Wow, was that myth debunked in his last game. Guards have been a thorn for FSU all year, and Ingram is not just any guard. While'FD has him listed as a forward, he plays much more like a guard, and no one on FSU is long enough to cover him by any means. In Ingram's last game, we actually had the exact same amount of turnovers (10), as he did for the previous 5 games combined. A very high strong bounce back potential here, and Ingram couldn't ask for a much better match-up on his home floor. His price has also seen a recent decline and this is always a plus as well.
Rosco Allen - Forward, Stanford. (FD Price $8,300, DK Price $7,700)
The line for this game opened with Stanford being a 2 point home underdog and has since moved to pick. This stats that heavy money has come in on Stanford and I could certainly see why. Stanford that looked awful in their last road game, and you have to expect them to come out with more fight in this one. Stanford needs this win more than USC, and I expect them to play like it tonight. When Stanford has success, it is usually Allen being the big reason why. USC is one of the better PAC12 teams, but is not very good defensively, and Stanford should be able to score on them. The tempo boost Stanford will get from playing USC also helps towards the extra projected possessions for Stanford. Allen's usage is very high in this offense, and he has a very high floor, which makes him one of the safer high priced plays tonight.
Tyrone Wallace - Guard, California. (FD Price $7,800, DK Price $8,000)
With all the decent guard options tonight, I expect many to look past Wallace, but I certainly will not be. His floor is always in the mid/high 20s, and he has a big game coming. His usage for California is great, and he is one of the most talented point guards in the PAC12. His price has also taken a step down, and this is just too cheap for him at home in a fast paced game with UCLA. The 20 minutes in his previous game were a subject of foul trouble, and barring that happening again, he should hover around 30 minutes tonight. Another fairly safe player, that offers far more upside than he's showed recently.
Mid-Priced Plays
Desi Rodriguez - Forward, Seton Hall. (FD Price $6,800, DK Price $6,500)
Seton Hall has won 6 of their last 7 games, and have played very well doing so. Lately, one of the guys who has really stepped up their game has been Desi Rodriguez. He has been shooting lights out and they will need him tonight to play well again. I don't like Whitehead all that much, as I expect Dunn to cover him and Delgado will struggle down low with Bentil. This leaves mostly likely Bullock to cover Rodriguez and I don;'t mind this match-up one bit for Rodriguez. Seton Hall is projected to score tonight, and I like Rodriguez chances to stay hot. His prices hasn't been adjusted high enough yet to stay away from, and he could provide strong value tonight at this price.
Michael Humphrey - Forward, Stanford. (FD Price $5,800, DK Price $5,900)
Mr. Humphrey may just be the high player owned tonight on the slate. He is back to getting his full plethora of minutes, and when he's played big minutes, he's proved to be a very good fantasy player. He's still a bit under-priced based on his projected minutes and usage in a game that should have a nice tempo. USC can certainly be pushed back down low, and Humphrey could be inline for a strong night. He has great upside to go along with a safe floor, and you can certainly expect many of your opponents tonight to roster him. Fading him tonight would not be advised.
Amida Brimah - Forward, Connecticut. (FD Price $5,400, DK Price $5,200)
I know people will try to figure out the best value plays from USF, but I'd rather not. UConn sports one of the nations top defenses, and targeting anyone vs. UConn this year is not exactly a get rich plan. Some USF guys are priced nicely, but this is just an awful spot for them here. On UConn's side of the ball Brimah is still priced too low. The concern was that he just wasn't getting minutes, but now he seems to be back on track. USF really has problems protecting the glass, and Brimah's length inside is one of the best in all of CBB. Expect his per usual high block upside along with many put pack opportunities around the rim. Barring foul trouble, Brimah should be able to get you value at his low tag.
Low-Priced Plays
Josh Reaves - Guard, Penn State. (FD Price $5,100, DK Price $4,400)
Avery Woodson - Guard, Memphis. (FD Price $4,800, DK Price $4,700)
Payton Banks - Forward, Penn State. (FD Price $4,700, DK Price $4,700)
Banks hasn't played well recently at all, but this price is far too low to ignore based on the match-up. He is nearly guaranteed 30 minutes, and performs far better at home. As mentioned above Penn State is a home favorite here, and they run fairly slim in regards to depth. This puts low priced guys like Banks in play, and he is a better player than what his stats say. I like him tonight, to get back on track and to reach you value at almost minimum price.
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