My goal with these articles is not just to give you plays and send you on your way (insert old saying about teaching someone how to fish). My goals are that you learn a few things as well that are DFS related. I hope that by now you have learned that I am no point chaser. I do not go into a slate saying no matter the price Player A is I'll be paying for him. Now taking one helpful tip at a time may not lead you to winning today, but collectively these tips will provide you an edge over the long haul. This time of year, people love to ride hot streaks, assume a great match-up is the #1 way to determine a player's projection, and simply put will overpay for multiple players. These articles all preface around the same idea, and that is making sure you consider ALL factors when selecting a player. Some questions I frequently often ask myself are; How I do I project this player's ownership? How many times this year as this player made value at this price? The match-up and price are ideal, but does the player perform well enough consistently on the road to pay off his tag? While some of these question sound obvious, not everyone is researching slates with these in mind. DFS in it's most simplest form is about finding better value than the others in your contest. The best value hunters in DFS are the ones that you constantly see at the top of leader-boards and this is because they are disciplined. Don't cave into a player's hot streak if his price has exceeded what your comfortable paying or assume before even logging into Fanduel/Draftkings that your playing Players X,Y,Z without even considering price. I have listed my favorite plays below for the early slate, taking into consideration all factors mentioned above.
Devin Thomas - Forward, Wake Forest. (FD Price $8,400, DK Price $8,900)
Devin Thomas is not my favorite play of the slate, but I always list these in top down order by price. On Fanduel though, this price is incredible. His price is down from $8,900 which is what it was on Tuesday. He draws a great home match-up vs. FSU. Now typically guard is the position that burns FSU, but talented forwards have gone off against this team as well. This will be one of the highest scoring games on the slate, so the right exposure here is key. I expect Thomas to have his way down low in the front court all game. I also don't mind Miller-McIntyre at 5300, but he is real tough to trust in cash these days. His talent though is far bad than what we've been seeing recently, and a big game is coming from him.
Maurice Watson Jr. - Guard, Creighton. (FD Price $8,000, DK Price $7,800)
This is the lowest price Watson has been on Fanduel since I can remember. On Draftkings, he has been hovering around this area throughout the season, but for this match-up I do think it's a bit low. Watson's floor is 25 and he needs 32 for value here in a game that he should control throughout on offense. I expect enough shots and free throw attempts to get him past his season average along with his strong assist numbers. His peripherals make him such a safe play, but he does rarely go off, so you may want to tread lightly with Watson in GPPs. His upside tomorrow along with his price provide pound for pound, some of the best value on the slate.
Dwayne Bacon - Forward, Florida State. (FD Price $7,600, DK Price $7,600)
As mentioned above this will be quite the thrilling match-up. With Florida State being favored and Bacon's price certainly in a good target range, I'll have a lot of exposure. Talented wing men have really handed it to Wake Forest this year, and I expect no different tomorrow. Bacon can post almost anyone up even at his small 6'7 frame, and even take the ball up the court if he wants to run the offense. He is a unique player for his size and should have his way with Wake Forest in this one. Being on the road doesn't scare me too much here, as he has had some solid road outings this year. Beasley and Booker are tough to play in my eyes at their price, and everyone is really tough to trust on this team.
Shavon Shields - Forward, Nebraska. (FD Price $7,500/$7,500)
When Nebraska is a home favorite against anyone, and Shields is under 8K, he is almost a lock for me in cash. He has really had an up and down year, and I honestly though he would even perform better than this, as Petteway left last year. Shields typically plays very well in these types of games and Rutgers is arguably the worst Power 5 team in the country. The argument can also be made for almost any Nebraska starter here, but if I going one guy it will be Shields. He offer great peripherals and usage, and I see no reason for him not to be aggressive in this game. His recent games have been what has driven his price down, and we should all take advantage of it here.
Prince Ibeh/Connor Lammert. (FD Price $6,600/$5300, DK Price $6,200/$4900)
I've listed both guys here as they both could reach value, but if your someone who typically runs two or more lineups, you'll want exposure to at least one of these guys. Texas Tech really struggles in the front court defensively, and while I do not like Ibeh price jump on both sites, it is hard to ignore his recent production. Keep in mind though that his production has led to Lammert taking a back seat and his price dropping. Both of these guys are typically cash lineup options as I cannot see how either burns you at these prices tomorrow, yet I'm finding it hard to project them much higher than value. Ibeh would nee to have a serious block party and Lammert will need the 3 ball raining to be in GPP range. While certainly possible, I'll prefer to roll these guys in cash games.