This is the final week of college basketball and the start of the most important month of the CBB season. Enjoy this month while it lasts, cause it will go by quickly. Tonight, we have a decent sized slate on both sites, but honestly I'm going to be avoiding most of these games. While some match-ups are nice in many of these games, it will be tough to trust certain players based on their pricing. I also am certainly keeping up with the senior day narratives. While these don't give precise hard numbers, coaches always want their seniors (especially their top ones) to go out with a bang. There are a quite a few teams with seniors tonight with this narrative bonus associated to them. Other than that, this will be another article that details paying down for players in plus match-ups, while refusing to pay up for players who've recently experienced a price hike. Below are the guys I like for tonight's slate.
Ben Simmons - Forward, LSU. (FD Price $11,700, DK Price $11,600)
Previous readers would have known Simmons would be here without even opening the link. If there is a slate with soft pricing, I will pay up to 12K for Simmons at home and 11.5K on the road regardless of the match-up. He has proven all year, he is match-up proof with a floor in the low 30s. I do think tonight he will be high owned than his traditional 20% though due to the very much so plus match-up here. LSU has a lot left to prove if they want to be tournament bound even after their home win over Florida. Tonight is another shot to showcase that against the worst team in the SEC. I don't have to go on and on about the slot reel of points Simmons is, and tonight's pricing overall is too soft on Fanduel to avoid. On Drafkings, I'm fine with the fade, as there are many mid-priced high ceiling guys that you can stack instead.
Brandon Ingram - Guard, Duke. (FD Price $8,500, DK Price $9,100)
I wrote up Ingram in my last article when his price was even higher on Fanduel in a tougher match-up. As long as his price sits below 9K and he's home, I feel he is always in play. His numbers have not been good at all recently, but that doesn't scare me in the least tonight. Wake Forest is one of the fantasy gold kind of teams to target, and your getting Ingram at a discount here. I expect to see decent Allen ownership as well, but Ingram has a big game coming, and is priced cheaper on both sites. Ingram was a peripheral machine in their last match-up and I expect a similar scenario here tonight as well.
Damion Lee - Guard, Louisville. (FD Price $7,300, DK Price $7,500)
He is the first senior day narrative play in this article and it won't be the last. Lee is coming off two poor road showings, and all this did is make his price more appetizing for the game against Georgia Tech. Lee has been far better at home this year than on the road and I'm sure he wants to put on a good show for the crowd tonight. He virtually never sits, and this game is expected to be within 12-13 points, so he should see plenty of run even if the game gets out of hand. On the road Georgia Tech has been very suspect defensively giving up the three ball and having issues down low. Expect Lee to go back to his usual productive peripheral self en route to value at this tag.
Marshall Plumlee - Forward, Duke. (FD Price $6,700, DK Price 6,700)
As crazy as it might sound, Marshall Plumlee and I scored the exact same amount of points against Pittsburgh on Sunday. This poor game has dropped Plumlee's price to a very target worthy $6700 on both sites. Even with no Devin Thomas, Wake still has some long big men, so expect Plumlee to get as much run as he can handle tonight if the game says somewhat close. The spread is about 17, so Vegas expects a big win for Duke, but this is not too big where you should be avoiding this game. Plumlee should have ample spots to pick up lose rebounds and easy layups in what will be a very fast paced game. His price is very nice on both sites tonight.
Ryan Spangler - Forward, Oklahoma. (FD Price $6,600, DK Price $7,300)
We have senior day play number two in the article. Spangler is always in play when he's home and his price is in the sub 6K range on Fanduel. Add the benefits of senior day and this provides a very nice value play tonight. On Draftkings, I'm not in love with this price, but you've seen his recent 45+ point upside, so you can't completely sleep on him in GPPs. Oklahoma needs Spangler to be his best night in and night out with OU's limited options off of the bench. Consider the fact that Spangler is coming off an awful showing in the road loss to Texas and this makes for a prime bounce back spot for him. He is not a sub 6K player and you have to take advatnage of these price drops when you can.
Tim Quarterman - Forward/Guard, LSU. (FD Price $6,200, DK Price $6,400)
Quarterman is still simply priced too low again here. This match-up for LSU should provide them many easy baskets tonight. With no Hornsby, Quarterman is almost never sitting, and also provides decent usage. He doesn't need to score all that much tonight either, as he is good at racking up peripherals. LSU is projected to top 80 points tonight, and they run fairly thin. With Patterson involved, Quarterman splits PG duties, but still is able to rack up assists in games like this. Quarterman's price here along with the match-up is tough to pass up.
Trey Lewis - Guard, Louisville. (FD Price $5,200, DK Price $5,400)
Alex Poythress - Forward, Kentucky. (FD Price $5,000, DK Price $5,400)
Derryck Thornton - Guard, Duke. (FD Price $4,500, DK Price $4,600)
Thornton hasn't looked good at all recently, but now is price has dropped to the minimum on Fanduel. There are other options around this range tonight you could go like Patterson, Jones, Isabell, and even Benny Parker who is also minimum price, but I'll be going with Thornton. In the fast pace match expected, Thornton has the opportunity to gather many assists tonight, seeing as he is the primary ball handler when on the floor. He hasn't reached value in a while, but he is finally down to minimum price, and certainly in playable range. I expect the crowd to go to Matt Jones or Kennard for cheap production on Duke tonight, but Thornton is priced cheaper with good upside for this tag.
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