We are currently in the middle of conference tournaments and this is the last chance for bubble teams to prove their worth to the committee. A handful of teams are already set to be dancing in March, but there are certainly many bubble teams, and these are the teams with the most on the line. Typically every year in CBB, it is at this point which the stars in the league really flex their muscle. It's one thing to be passive during a weeknight game in the middle of the season, but knowing one loss could be season ending certainly adds pressure to each team. It's these situations where the studs perform, and we see this every year. We have even seen early on in these conference tournaments studs begin to show up in a big way for their respective teams, and don't expect this trend to stop. I will certainly be riding studs going forward, but still maintaining price discipline when selecting them. There are a lot of studs on this slate, but but choosing the ones in the right price points will be key. Below are my favorite plays for tonight's slate.
High-Priced Plays
Jacob Poeltl - Forward, Utah. (FD Price $10,200, DK Price $9,600)
The best part about selecting players in conference tournaments is that each of these teams have played each other at least once already. All Poeltl did against USC was throw up a 60 burger. While I certainly do not expect him to get this or near it tonight, expecting 4x would seem very viable. USC plays very quickly, and the tempo boost plays very large to the favor of Utah. Other guys on Utah or either over-priced on Fanduel or tough to trust with the exception of Loveridge. I mentioned above how stars perform this time of year, and while Poeltl's price is not ideal, this is a huge opportunity for him tonight to shine large.
Maurice Watson Jr. - Guard, Creighton. (FD Price $7,700, DK Price $7,500)
I expect Watson to go under the radar tonight, but his price has climbed all the way down into the 7K range on Fanduel. His DK price is also very low as well for his floor. He has a few games with foul trouble and a groin injury, but he should be back to full health and normally never a foul risk. His periperals are some of the best you'll find at the point guard position and he is priced too low in what should be a close game. In games like this, Creighton relies heavily on Watson to provide open looks for his teamates along with finding easy paths to the rim. Expect a good showing from him tonight, as he's been Creighton's best player by far all year and they'll need him tonight to win.
Jameel McKay - Forward, Iowa State. (FD Price $7,400, DK Price $7,500)
The total for this game is virtually as high as you'll see for when two conference teams play. It is currently sitting at 161 and for good reason. Iowa State and Oklahoma both play very fast and both are very efficient. You'll want some exposure into this game because of this. McKay is an interesting play tonight, primarily because of his price. On paper, this doesn't appear to be a great match-up for him, but the extra possessions in this game make up for it. I expect Oklahoma to give Lattin more run than he has had recently but his struggle with the lengthy McKay. This price is just so nice for a player like McKay with his block upside and double-double potential every night. McKay has also had two productive games vs. Oklahoma this year and barring foul trouble should come through again.
Mid-Priced Plays
Sebastian Saiz - Forward, Ole Miss. (FD Price $7,200, DK Price $7,400)
Saiz price has been on the rise and deservedly so. He has been playing well recently, and my fear with watching him play was that he wasn't quite back to form yet after his eye injury. He proved me wrong with his last performance against Tennessee and now is priced accurately instead of being under-priced. I honestly do not believe your chasing here as again he has been under-priced recently compared to his overall upside. Alabama has been a slot reel of points to big forwards this year, and Saiz could be in for another big game. He is always a foul trouble risk though, so just keep this in mind, but he certainly makes for a colid play against the weak interier of the Crimsn Tide.
Ryan Spangler - Forward, Oklahoma. (FD Price $6,900, DK Price $7,600)
I mentioned before about exposure in this game and on Oklahoma's side I like Spangler. He is back under 7K on Fanduel, and while he is not home, he is not on the road either. Spangler is a player I dislike playing on the road due to lack of consistency, but his floor in this type of fast paced game is high based on his price. I'm not a fan of his DK price, but he's certainly worth a GPP shot as we have seen what he's capable of doing on any given night. Spangler almost never leaves the floor and this being the most important game for Oklahoma to date, expect the same usual minutes tonight. For a big man, Spangler has good peripherals and the tempo boost of this game will certainly play to his favor.
Angel Rodriguez - Guard, Miami. (FD Price $6,800, DK Price $7,000)
Miami is in one of the best DFS match-ups of the night against Virginia Tech. The issue here is that Newton is expected back and the the minutes shake up for Miami players could be difficult to predict. Jekiri is sitting at 6300 on Fanduel which is great, but his recent inconsistent play has me worried even at that price. Rodriguez though, offers the best peripherals on Miami and should have ample opportunity to pad his assists and get a few easy baskets. Virginia Tech has been a team worth targeting all year, and this spot is no different. I know that Tech handled Miami in their last game, but I'm finidng it hard to beleive a repeat of this tonight. Rodriguez is coming off of a bad game per his usual standard, and expect him to bounce back nicely here.
Low-Priced Plays
Charles Mann - Guard, Georgia. (FD Price $5,200, DK Price $5,800)
Mann has had a rough go around in conference play this season. Foul trouble has been an ongoing problem for him, and his upside has been limited. Tonight though, Georgia draws Mississippi State and Mann's price is the lowest it's been all year. He is also coming off of his best overall game since early February and torched Mississippi State earlier in the year. Mann's price has just dropped way too low and on a night without many cheap options, he is borderline must play in my eyes on Fanduel. His floor at this price is 3x, and he has a ceiling above 5x. Play Mann with confidence tonight.
Derek Ogbeide - Forward, Georgia. (FD Price $4,600, DK Price $4,300)
Daxter Miles Jr. - Guard, West Virginia. (FD Price $4,500, DK Price $4,700)
A night like tonight filled with high priced players had me feeling obligated to drop a minimum priced guy in this article. Miles has seen his price decline recently due to lack of production, but this is expected to happen with how deep WVU is at the guard position. Miles though, was moved back into the starting lineup a few games ago, and does not deserve to be minimum price. Miles is a lock for 20+ minutes in a game that should see WVU get near 80 points. Don't let his bad game against TCU fool you, as he picked up two fouls in under 3 minutes and got the auto-bench. He looked much better against TCU earlier in the year, and I do expect him to come close to or exceed value at this price tonight.
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