Tonight is another night this week that provides the opportunity for seniors to go out with a bang for their university in their final home game. There are also non seniors that will be playing in what will likely be their final home game, seeing as some will be declaring early for the draft. I want to be clear that while this narrative street lingo can be enticing to most, you still have to stay disciplined with your DFS principles. Take last night for example. Stefan Moody and Andrew Andrews who are both seniors absolutely went off in their final home game yesterday. Their prices in no way reflected being good for their match-ups, but these two guys still payed off their hefty tags. Did this mean if you faded these two that you made the wrong decision? Not one bit. Both of these guys scored a career high in points, and is a pregame honoring the main reason for this? Again I say, not one bit. They had to make their shots and both got fouled plenty of times as well making a combined 31 free throws between the two which is absurd. I'm writing about this because people may jump to conclusions tonight and for the rest of the week that you need to play top seniors on senior day regardless of price and reference Andrews and Moody as their examples why. I just want you to keep in mind that these two are the minority of these type of eye popping numbers on senior day, and no matter how good the narrative is, you still need to stick to your pricing fundamentals for selecting players. I have a few mentions in my article today for some seniors, but it is because their price reflects them being playable, not just because of this will be their last home game for their respective colleges.
Michael Carrera - Forward, South Carolina. (FD Price $9,000, DK Price $8,300)
Carrera has been a very popular play this year in CBB, and this is mostly because his price has been affordable most of the year. This has been especially true on Draftkings. Tonight is senior day for South Carolina, and his price isn't bad. I am not in love with this price, but at the same time, it is certainly not bad. This match-up is better than it looks for him as Georgia has been awful defensively on the road in SEC play. His price is a bit more affordable on Draftkings, so you may want to lean there to have some Carrera shares tonight. On Fanduel tonight, pricing is a bit tighter than normal. Carrera is coming off an awful game, and is typically a safe bet for upper 20s production with a ceiling in the 40s, so I have no issue running Carrera out tonight with the Senior night bonus.
Quenton DeCosey - Guard, Temple. (FD Price $8,200, DK Price $7,700)
Pound for pound, Temple has the best fantasy relevant match-up on paper tonight. This is because Temple runs very thin, and is paced up against lightning quick Memphis as far as tempo is concerned. DeCosey is their best play and I'm sorry I cannot buy into Obi Enechionia's recent hot shooting numbers. It's senior night in Temple as well tonight, and DeCosey will have ample opportunities to score in this game where Temple is a slight home favorite. On a side note, I think it's tough to trust any Memphis player tonight if you want to tackle a GPP. Temple's pace should really slow them down tonight.
Brandon Taylor - Forward, Penn State. (FD Price $7,800, DK Price $7,400)
I think it was safe to say Brandon Taylor would have an off game vs. Michgian State, but wow he tied for a season low in points, and had his lowest fantasy output of the season. Needless to say a bounce back game is highly likely here especially that it's against Northwestern. Taylor has gone over 30 fps in three of his previous games before his last and I expect him to get back on track tonight. I still beleive Taylor is under-priced here, and this match-up is certainly a plus for him. Garner is the only other player on this team you can trust, but his price is too high on Fanduel.
Melo Trimble/Rasheed Sulaimon - Guard, Maryland. (FD Price $7,700/$7,000, DK Price $7,800/$6,400)
I'm decided to give both guys here a mention for a few reasons. For one thing, this will probably be both player's last game as Sulaimon is a senior and Trimble will probably declare for the draft. This match-up will Illinois is certainly a plus, and their pricing is certainly not crazy. I prefer Trimble on Fanduel and Sulaimon on Draftkings, but have no issue with going the reverse direction if you need to. Maryland should be able to score at will tonight in various ways, Trimble looked good his last time out, and may be finally back to his old ways. Sulaimon is coming off two bad games per his standards, and I like him to bust out of this slump tonight.
Jake Layman - Forward, Maryland. (FD Price $6,200, DK Price 6,800)
Here is another Maryland senior, and I'm sure Maryland would love for him to end his career at home on a high note. His price is very cheap tonight on Fanduel, and I do expect many others to be on him as well. Carter and Stone's prices are accurate or maybe even a bit high, but Layman's has dropped due to average play recently. He provides a great floor for this price, and while is ceiling is somewhat limited, there are very few plays safer than Layman tonight for the price on Fanduel.
Jaylen Bond - Forward, Temple. (FD Price $6,000, DK Price $6,100)
I have mentioned this before, and I will again. Anytime Bond is home, and less than 7K, he will be in my lineups. The recent foul trouble and road games have pushed down Bond's price, but this is only a good thing. He is simply not a 6K player, yet he is priced like one here tonight. Memphis can be true fantasy gold at times due to how fast they play, and expect Bond to be at the rim picking up rebounds all game. This is another player who is receiving that senior day narrative bonus as well. This price is simply too cheap, and don't let his recent play fool you. He is a far better player than this price indicates he should be.
Tra Holder - Guard, Arizona State. (FD Price $6,400, DK Price $6,500)
Talk about guys taking a price dip. This is actually the lowest price I can remember Holder being on either site all season. I think this price has more to do with the negative performance he put up against Utah, and it's just too low. Holder is a typically priced in the low 7K range, and your getting a nice discount here. Stanford's defense doesn't scare me in the least, and Vegas even has Arizona State as a slight favorite tonight. Holder is coming back home after three straight road games and is a very safe play tonight at this price.