We are now two weeks away from the Super Bowl and down to the final four teams in the NFL. It turned out ot be a chalky finish in terms of the playoffs as no real upsets occurred outside of the Browns and Steelers in terms of seeding upset but maybe not necessarily talent on the field. We have a big battle of quarterbacks this week as Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady and Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes. Of course, this is assuming Mahomes plays which seems likely despite the ugly injury this past week against the Browns. Both home teams are favored by three this week and the totals are set for over 50. We have four of the top offenses in the league this week, two future hall of fame quarterbacks, and potentially more. This is going to be a fun one and no matter the results of this week any combination of these four teams for the Super Bowl is going to be entertaining.

Game Spread Total
TB @ GB GB -3.5 51
BUF @ KC KC -3.0 54


The headlines are going to read Rodgers vs Brady as they have only faced each other three times in their career. Brady has won two of the three games vs Rodgers, and Brady has won comfortably in those two games. Outside of this season, we go back to Brady on different teams and the Packers having no Davante Adams, so the historical data doesn't mean much, and isn't something I take into account heavily anyway. The Packers are slight favorites in this one and public money is coming in on them slightly but overall the public is fairly split. This isn't anything shocking and neither are people hitting the over in this one. Both offenses averaged over 30+ points this season and there are weapons in mismatches all over this game. Both teams hit the over ten times this season and were in double-digits for covering the spread. I think later in the week we should see the line move towards the Bucs by a half-point.

Green Bay's defense played very well last week, and while Cam Akers got numbers, they made him work and limited the Rams offense. Now they will have a tough task of slowing down an underrated Ronald Jones who has been ripping off big runs when he isn't in Arian's doghouse. Green Bay will have to face a trio of strong wide receivers but do have a solid secondary. As for the Bucs, they boast one of the top run defenses in the league over the last two seasons and while the secondary is improved they are young and face Rodgers and Adams. I like the over here due to the Bucs just being able to put up points regardless of matchup and Rodgers is going to pick apart this Bucs secondary that is likely a year away from being a top half pass defense. Green Bay is still the team I like the most and have been lights out at home. Throw out the early matchup for Green Bay, I like how this pass offense matches up for Tampa. Get this to three and the Packers should cover.


Kansas City looks to have dodged a major problem with Patrick Mahomes being out this week. He left after a nasty play and Chad Henne had to finish the game. Odds came out and the Chiefs were favored by three, which is cautious given where they have been all year but it does indicate Mahomes is going to be healthy and ready to go. However, the line might continue to grow as the week goes on. Kansas City has been a public team this year but they are 6-10-1 ATS compared to the Bills who are 12-6. Public money is coming in early on Buffalo, which is to be expected with the number at three. This is going to be a close game and I like Buffalo covering and the over is in play as well. Both offenses are going to match up with similar defenses and there are just too many weapons to keep these teams at bay. Now we saw the under hit by a wide margin earlier this season in what was an odd and sloppy game. I wouldn't expect two pass-happy offenses with weapons to have a defensive battle.

Now both run defenses are not ideal and rank in the bottom half of the league. However, Buffalo isn't quite capable of just running the ball with confidence as Zack Moss is out for the rest of the year and Devin Singletary is a pretty average back who works better in the passing game. Kansas City ran the ball 13 times with Darrel Williams last week and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is questionable again. CEH returning would actually be a big boost but we will have to see the injury report late in the week. The other is going to be Travis Kelce against the Bills defense that has struggled against tight ends this season. Kelce put up two touchdowns on the Bills earlier this season and they allowed nine total touchdowns to tight ends. Buffalo's defense is going to have to pick things up against Kelce.

NFL Conference Round FAQ

How Can I Bet On Football?

If you are a resident within one of these states: NY, NJ, PA, NH, PA, RI, WV, OR, IN, IA, NV, AR, DE, MS, NM, you can legally bet on the NFL. Sportsbooks are available, and some of them also offer mobile betting.

What Are Opening Lines?

Opening lines are the very first lines put out to the public by oddsmakers. They are put out early, and then adjustments will be made. Getting in on opening lines is where bettors can have an advantage before the lines change.

When Does The Conference Round Start?

The Conference Round will begin on Sunday, January 24th. There are two games this Sunday with the Packers welcoming the Buccaneers and the Bills are going to Kansas City.

What Is A Game Total?

A total set for a game is the set number. You can bet the over or under on for total points. If a game is set at 54.5, you can bet either over or under the total combined points between the two teams.

Why Do Lines Change?

Lines can change for various reasons. If there is an injury leading up to the game that has a major effect on the potential outcome, the line will adjust based on the news. Weather is another reason why it can change.

Who Is The Biggest Favorite Of The Conference Round?

There are just two games this week with the conference championship games. The Packers are -3.5 favorites compared to the Chiefs being -3.0 favorites.

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