After 2 weeks off, we are back with some DvP analysis. At this point in the season, we now have a fairly respectable sample size which helps make the DvP rankings for each team a little more accurate. Also included into the rankings is a SOS component to help account for certain defenses who have had a more favorable to start the year. This week there are 12 games in the main slate so our sample size of players is a little more than it has been over the past couple of slates.
Quarterback to Target
Jay Cutler (5,300) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers- In Week 10, Jay Cutler will be matching up against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 25th in points allowed to QBs so far this season. The recommendation of Cutler is a combination of his matchup while at the same time is one of the cheaper options at the position this week. With his salary, it could open up lineups to play the higher priced RBs and WRs that people will want to play this week. Another plus for Cutler is that he tends to lock in on Alshon Jeffrey, who is also in a fantastic matchup as well. The last factor into this play is that the Bears are on the road and it is likely that with their subpar defense they could be playing from behind which will see an increase in attempts for Cutler this week.
Quarterback to Avoid
Colin Kaepernick (5,800) vs Arizona Cardinals – In Week 9, DFS players finally got a glimpse of the upside that Kaepernick possesses. However, in Week 10, that upside seems to be limited in a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are currently the 4th best team against the position and seem to be getting better deeper into the season. The 49ers are in a matchup where they will have difficulty moving the ball and to top it all off have the lowest projected total of any team this week. Try to avoid the recency bias this week and leave him off of your rosters this week.
Running Back to Target
David Johnson (8,400) vs San Francisco 49ers- This may seem like an obvious suggestion but it really needs to be stressed that Johnson is probably the best play on the Week 10 slate this week. The 49ers are the worst at defending the RB position as show last week with both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower having great fantasy days. The Cardinals are playing at home, are favored by 13.5 points, and have the highest projected total of any team at 31 points. This all leads to the expectation that Johnson will see a massive workload that he should take advantage of. Of note, in his previous matchup vs the 49ers this year, he had a stat line of 27-157-2 on the ground which is one of the bigger days a running back has had so far this year.
Running Back to Avoid
Spencer Ware (6,700) vs Carolina Panthers- One of the bigger injury updates this week is that Ware has been cleared through the concussion protocol and will be back in action in Week 10. However, he returns to a very difficult matchup facing a Panthers defense that is 5th best in the league at defending RBs. There are a lot of factors going against Ware this week including playing on the road, facing a desperate Panthers team that needs to keep winning to stay in the playoff hunt, and the unknown of if Ware will get a full workload coming off of the injury. With those considerations as well as multiple RBs at his price point that are in better spots, it would be wise to avoid Ware in DFS this week.
Wide Receiver to Target
Mike Evans (9,000) vs Chicago Bears- The target monster know as Mike Evans will get a juicy matchup in Week 10 against a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most points to the WR position. What makes this even better is that the Bears also rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA against WR1s. Similar to the recommendation of Jay Cutler above, I see this game being close with both defenses struggling to stop the opposing offenses. As the focal point of an offense in a positive matchup and game flow, Evans should be a WR slotted in lineups this week.
Wide Receiver to Avoid
Jarvis Landry (7,200) vs San Diego Chargers- In the past couple weeks, the Dolphins have seemed to change the identity of their offense. With the emergence of Jay Ajayi, there has been an increase in the amount of rush attempts for the Dolphins. As a result, the number of targets for Landry has dropped a tad and this matchup against the Chargers will lead to this philosophy being even more prevalent. The Chargers are a top 5 team at defending WRs while ranking in the bottom 5 at defending the run. It should be expected that the Dolphins will try to pound the ball on the ground against the Chargers which limits the floor and upside for Landry this week, even on full PPR sites such as DraftKings.
Tight End to Target
Lance Kendricks (3,000) vs the New York Jets- There are certain teams casual DFS players tend to stay away from and one of the teams at the top of the list is the Los Angeles Rams. However, this is something take advantage of this week as Kendricks faces a New York Jets defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against the Tight End position. Kendricks involvement in the passing offense has increased over the past three weeks seeing his targets go from 8 to 9 to a season high 12 last week. In Week 9, he had a very productive fantasy day scoring 16 points but that easily could have been since he dropped an easy TD pass in the end zone which could have made him a top scorer at the position. At his cheap price and in this positive matchup, Kendricks is a guy who lead a team to a highly profitable day on Sunday.
Tight End to Avoid
Greg Olsen (5,900) vs Kansas City Chiefs- I will preface that Olsen is usually one of my favorite TEs to play each week since he is such a reliable target for Cam Newton and has one of the higher floors at the position. However, this week he will be facing a Kansas City defense that ranks in the top 10 at defending the position. In most of his passing routes, he will be matchup up against Eric Berry who is one of the best cover safeties in all of the NFL. At his price point, there are other TEs such as Jimmy Graham and Jordan Reed who look to be in a better situation to put up fantasy points this week. As a result, it looks to be a week where avoiding Olsen will be a profitable decision.
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