In Week 10, the DvP rankings did not line up with some of the highest scoring players which can happen from time to time. At this point in the season, we now have a fairly respectable sample size which helps make the DvP rankings for each team a little more accurate. Also included into the rankings is a SOS component to help account for certain defenses who have had a more favorable to start the year. This week there are 12 games in the main slate so our sample size of players is a little more than it has been over the past couple of slates.

Quarterback to Target

Marcus Mariota (6,700) vs Indianapolis Colts- What else is there to say about Marcus Mariota? He has thrown for multiple TDs over his past six games and is one of the most efficient QBs in the Redzone. This week he gets a matchup against the Colts who rank as the 4th worst defense at defending the QB position. It is tough to find a better matchup in a game that is projected to be the highest scoring of the week and also has a small line of three points. He is on a hot streak on paper looks like Mariota should be able to keep it going. A bonus is that is very mobile and can get additional points running the football as well. Keep the ball rolling and have no fear in playing Mariota in lineups this week.

Quarterback to Avoid

Carson Palmer (5,600) vs Minnesota Vikings – In Week 11, Palmer and the Cardinals get a matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks second best in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Palmer has been getting plenty of opportunities due to the Cardinals being one of the more pass happy teams in the league (63% of plays). However, he has not been able to do much with them. On top of that, he will face the number 4 ranked DVOA defense against the pass. The Cardinals also have a projected total of 20.5 which really limits the upside for Palmer this week.

Running Back to Target

Le'Veon Bell (8,800) vs Cleveland Browns- I will start analysis with a recommendation. Bell needs to be in everybody's cash game lineups this week. Bell will be facing an abysmal Browns defense that ranks as the 6th worst at defending RBs. The Steelers are projected to score the 2nd most points this week (28.5) which increase the upside for Bell this week. Bell has a unique skill set where he can score fantasy points catching passes just as easily as running the football which is beneficial on full PPR sites such as DraftKings. One of the biggest reasons to play Bell this week is the well documented struggles of Ben Roethlisberger on the road. In order to get to the 28.5 implied total, it is more likely that those points will come from Bell than through the Steelers passing game.

Running Back to Avoid

Jay Ajayi (6,800) vs Los Angeles Rams- Jay Ajayi has been one of the bigger DFS surprises over the past couple weeks, but a matchup against a top 3 defense against running backs should limit his production this week. The matchup between the Dolphins and Rams has the lowest game total on the entire slate. The Dolphins are also playing on the road and getting points in this game. The big news of this game is that Jared Goff will get his first NFL start. I foresee that the Rams will try to run the ball a lot to take the pressure off of Goff and limit the possessions for the Dolphins in this game. The negative game flow and matchup make fading Ajayi a decision to consider this week.

Wide Receiver to Target

Odell Beckham Jr. (8,500) vs Chicago Bears- Week 11 will see Beckham and the Giants face a Bears defense that ranks 31st defending wide receivers in 2016. Most people do not know that the Bears have actually been a funnel defense this year. The Bears are currently the 8th best at defending the run which should lead the Giants attacking them through the air. As a result, there is a good chance Beckham will see double digit targets in one of the better matchups for a WR this week. Feel free to play Beckham in all lineups this week.

Wide Receiver to Avoid

Jordy Nelson (7,800) vs Washington Redskins- Nelson and the Packers will face a Redskins defense that rank 6th best in the league at defending the WR position. Nelson has been extremely productive over the past couple weeks, but he should be shadowed this week by Josh Norman who is one of the top cover corners in the league. In addition, James Starks is now back and will be more involved in the offense which should decrease the pass attempts for the Packers this week. At his price point, there are WR with higher upside and in better matchups. As a result, it should be the time to avoid Nelson in DFS this week.

Tight End to Target

Zach Miller (3,800) vs New York Giants- One of the biggest stories heading into Week 11 is the suspension of Alshon Jeffrey. Jeffrey is the top target that Jay Cutler relies on which means there will be targets up for grabs in the Bears passing game. There is a good chance that someone who could take advantage of this is Miller who is facing a Giants defense who ranks in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed per game to TEs. Miller should be a reliable option for Cutler in this game and at his price could provide some salary relief to pay up at other positions.

Tight End to Avoid

Jimmy Graham (5,600) vs Philadelphia Eagles- Graham and the Seahawks will be playing at home against the Eagles in Week 11. The Eagles defense currently ranks in the top 10 defending the TE position which should cause some issues for Graham this week. It is encouraging to see that Russell Wilson is looking more and more like himself which lead to more production for Graham, but at his high price point it makes it difficult to pay up for him. There are also other TEs at his price point that should outproduce him this week making a fade of Graham viable this week.



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