What's going on DFCers. Starting this week, we will feature a new article analyzing the up to date rankings for how well NFL teams defend each skill position. Throughout the year the article will change evolving when more information for the 2016 season is available. For these earlier weeks during the season, we will compare the 2016 DvP stats to the 2015 season DvP rankings to notice differences as well as trends that seem to be consistent. The rankings will be listed from 32 (being the worst at the position) to 1 (being the best at defending the position). Based on this information, we will look at spots where we can use this information to take advantage of some under the radar plays to take advantage of for contests this week. Below are the current 2016 rankings through Week 2, the final 2015 rankings, and a comparison of the difference in their ranking between 2015 and 2016.

Changes from 2015 to 2016 of Note

San Francisco 49ers vs RB - One of the big surprises so far this season has been the 49ers. In Week 1 they were able to shut down Todd Gurley as well the rest of the Los Angeles Rams offense. In Week 2, the 49ers did give up some big plays in the passing game, they held Cam Newton and the rest of the Panthers RBs out of the end zone. This is a defense to keep an eye on to see how they hold up the next couple weeks, but I really think they could be an under the radar defense this week against a Seattle Seahawks offense who really struggle against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 and could be without one of their most explosive offensive weapons in Doug Baldwin.

Kansas City Chiefs vs RB - When the Kansas City Chiefs defense comes to mind, most think of them being one of the better units in the NFL. Thus far this season, it seems they have shown some vulnerability to running backs. In 2015, they were a top 5 unit in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs. Through two weeks in 2016, they are currently the 4th worst in defending the running back. In Week 1, they faced the San Diego Chargers in a game in which they trailed for most of the game which lead to the Chargers running the ball 32 times while giving up 155 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs also allowed a receiving touchdown to Danny Woodhead in this game. Game script played a big part in the inflated rushing numbers allowed to a Chargers offense that really struggled running the football in 2015. Week 2 had the Chiefs facing the Houston Texans who feature Lamar Miller and an offensive who attempted more running plays than any other offense in 2015. The Chiefs held the Houston Texans to 97 yards on 34 carries for an average of 2.9 yards per rush. I see the Chiefs defensive more likely to perform how they did in Week 2 compared to their effort in Week 1. With Matt Forte coming off a big game this past week for the New York Jets, this could be a spot to maybe fade the inflated ownership percentage that Forte will receive coming off of a big game this past Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills.

Philadelphia Eagles vs QB/RB/WR - The Philadelphia Eagles defensive unit was arguably one of the worst in the NFL in 2015 and a team that most DFS players would target every week. So far in 2016, they have looked like a team you want to avoid taking offensive players against. I do believe the Eagles defense has improved since last year, but many people may overlook the two teams they have played thus far this year, the Cleveland Browns and the Chicago Bears. In the early part of the NFL season, these are situations to identify. In this instance, the Eagles have faced a Browns team that featured two wide receivers making their NFL debut and a quarterback who had not started an NFL game since 2014 as well as a Bears offense that was playing their backup quarterback for a majority of their Week 2 matchup. I do think the change from a 3-4 defense in 2015 to a 4-3 defense in 2016 has really helped, especially in the running game, but I do think the level of competition faced has been below average and will really get a true test to see how good they really are facing the high power Pittsburgh Steelers offense this week.

Quarterbacks to Target

Marcus Mariota vs Oakland Raiders - The Oakland Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers as well as the 5th most to Tight Ends. The Raiders have faced powerful passing offenses in their first two weeks of the season (Saints/Falcons), but they still we in the bottom 10 of the league in points allowed to both quarterbacks and tight ends in 2015. This leads me to looking at firing up Mariota/Walker lineups once again.

Aaron Rodgers vs Detroit Lions - This is a situation I will monitor closely throughout the week to see how much buzz Rodgers and the Packers passing game receive in this matchup against the Detroit Lions. There are rumblings once again of how the Packers offense, especially the passing attack, has underperformed thus far this year. Recency bias is starting to set in and I am set on buying low on the Packers hoping to hit the week they play to their potential at a low ownership and that could be this week.

Quarterbacks to Avoid

Jameis Winston vs Los Angeles Rams - After a subpar performance in Week 1, the Rams defense played to their potential in Week 2 against Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams were able to hold the high powered Seahawk offense to 0 touchdowns and only 3 points. On the other end of the spectrum, Jameis Winston had 5 turnovers, including 4 interceptions, in a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Things do not get any easier for Winston this week, and we could see a repeat performance for him in Week 3

Sam Bradford vs Carolina Panthers - People are still buzzing about the Bradford to Diggs connection this past weekend, but it looks like they both should come back to Earth in a matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers may be overlooked by some DFS players after two average weeks, but with the injury to Adrian Peterson, it would not surprise me if the Panthers focus on shutting down Diggs and the Vikings passing game this week.

Running Backs to Target

Todd Gurley vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers - As stated with Aaron Rodgers above, the situation with people doubting Todd Gurley has gotten louder and louder. Based on DvP, he looks to be in a matchup to prove all of those people wrong. Tampa Bay is currently 7th worst defense against the running back position in 2016 after finishing in the bottom half of the rankings in 2015. Do not be surprised to see a bounce back week from Mr. Gurley.

DeMarco Murray vs Oakland Raiders - There seems to be a trend starting with the Oakland defense. They are currently ranked as the 10th worst defense against running backs which is consistent with their ranking from 2015. DeMarco Murray has been one of the better surprises through two weeks of the NFL season. Many were worried about his workload as well as his subpar performance in 2015. So far in 2016, he is averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and 6 receptions on average. Murray is looking like he could have another big game in Week 3.

Running Backs to Avoid

Latavius Murray vs Tennessee Titans - Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, no defense has been better than the Tennessee Titans in defending the running back position. This comes after being in the top 5 in defending running backs for all of the 2015 season. On top of that, Murray is coming off a week where he was only given 8 carries while other running backs on the roster such as DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were given 7 and 6 respectively. The matchup and the workload appear to not be in Murray's favor heading into Week 3.

Panthers Backfield vs Minnesota Vikings - With Jonathan Stewart expected to be out this week due to injury, the Panthers backfield situation has become a mess with touches expected to be given to Fozzy Whittaker, Cameron Artis-Payne, and Mike Tolbert. With none expected to take a majority of the carries, their upside is limited. On top of that, they will face a Vikings defense that is in the top 10 at defending running backs in 2016 as well as being 6th best for the 2015 season. Even at their discounted prices, the matchup seems to not favor the Panthers running game.

Wide Receivers to Target

New York Giants WRs vs Washington Redskins - In a game that features two below average running offenses, this game should lead to a lot of passing. This will play right into the hands of Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Victor Cruz. Many people were burned last week with their high ownership in a dream matchup against the Saints last week. Based on DvP, it looks as though we should fire them up again as they face a Redskins defense that is in the bottom 10 in defending the pass this season which is consistent with their ranking in 2015, even with the addition of Josh Norman. Pay attention this week to monitor which side of the field the Giants plan to line up their WRs, as it seems that Norman will continue to just play one side of the field.

Atlanta Falcons WRs vs New Orleans Saints - At this point in the season, the Saints have proven that their defense is once again one of the worst at defending wide receivers. In a game that should be a shootout, it looks to be a great spot to thrown in the likes of Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu into lineups. However, Julio Jones and his calf injury will need to be monitored this week to see if he will be limited in any way. Also, taking a flier on a guy like Justin Hardy is not out of the question either.

Wide Receivers to Avoid

Cincinnati Bengals WRs vs Denver Broncos - The Broncos are the 2nd best team defending wide receivers through the first two games of the 2016 season after finishing 2nd best for the 2015 season. If you need any more reason, watch highlights of their game against the Colts this past week.

New England Patriots WRs vs Houston Texans - The New England Wide Receivers will be fighting an uphill battle this week. First, they will be receiving passes from Jacoby Brissett, a rookie quarterback picked in the 3rd round of the 2016 NFL draft. He will be making his first NFL start in a Thursday night game that usually tends to favor the defenses. Second, they will face a Texans secondary that was 4th against wide receivers in 2015 and has continued that trend ranking 6th through two weeks of the 2016 season. There are way better options to go with than taking a flier on this wide receiver group.

Tight Ends to Target

Delanie Walker vs Oakland Raiders - See Marcus Mariota above

Antonio Gates vs Indianapolis Colts - Antonio Gates seems to be a player in a position to have a big week in Week 3. He is facing a Colts defense that is currently the 5th worst at defending the position in 2016 after finishing in the bottom half of the league in defending the tight end in 2015. After the season ending injury to Danny Woodhead, it seems to leave Antonio Gates as Phillip Rivers's most trusted target heading into Week 3. On top of that, Woodhead's targets most likely will feed into the direction of Gates which should lead him to having more opportunities against a bad Colts defense.

Tight Ends to Avoid

Jesse James vs Philadelphia Eagles - Most weeks, every pass catcher on the Steelers roster will be in play to insert into lineups. However, James will be going up against the Philadelphia Eagles who were ranked 5th best at defending the tight end in 2015 and have been the best thus far in 2016. James is a big body at 6'7 who will get some red zone looks, but he looks to be in a bad matchup against a defense that tends to yield few opportunities to the position.

Julius Thomas vs Baltimore Ravens - Julius Thomas continues to look better and become more involved in the Jacksonville Jaguars passing game. This week, fantasy production could be hard to come by as he will be matchup up against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens currently are currently ranked 7th at defending tight ends. People may be surprised that even with how bad their passing defense was in 2015, they still ranked as the 2nd best defense against tight ends. With the Ravens past struggles against the Wide Receiver position, this seems to be a good spot to avoid Thomas this week.




Comments
JasonG4s
Great breakdown Kevin, and welcome aboard!
gelmashni@yahoo.com
Ummm ... Antonio Gates is doubtful to play.