Week 3 is officially in the books. As an avid sports fan, I always get excited each week when I begin researching and hoping to find the under the radar play for the upcoming week. Hopefully, as we look through the DvP rankings for Week 4, we will be able to find that play that will hopefully lead us all to a successful week. For these earlier weeks during the season, we will compare the 2016 DvP stats to the 2015 season DvP rankings to notice differences as well as trends that seem to be consistent. The rankings will be listed from 32 (being the worst at the position) to 1 (being the best at defending the position). Based on this information, we will look at spots where we can use this information to take advantage of some under the radar plays to take advantage of for contests this week. Below are the current 2016 rankings through Week 3, the final 2015 rankings, and a comparison of the difference in their ranking between 2015 and 2016. - DraftKings Pricing

Teams on Bye: Green Bay, Philadelphia

Changes from 2015 to 2016 of Note

Baltimore Ravens vs WR- I believe it is now time to start taking this Baltimore Ravens team, especially their defense, seriously. Last week against the Jaguars, the Ravens allowed only 141 yards to WRs, with no WR having more than 57 yards. This continues their impressive performances against passing games so far this season, and this week they will see a similar team in the Oakland Raiders. It will be interesting to see if this Baltimore Ravens Pass D will be able to hold up against Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and the rest of the Oakland Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs WR- In 2015, it was a common practice for teams to attack the Steelers secondary in DFS lineups. With Pittsburgh fielding one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, most of their games would feature opposing teams having to play from behind, having to keep games very high scoring. This year it should be more of the same, but it is interesting to see through three weeks that the Steelers defense is ranked 7th against defending Wide Receivers. If you just look at the stat sheet from last people, people will see that Carson Wentz threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns and assume that the Steelers had a tough time defending the pass. However, over half of those passing yards went to running back Darren Sproles. The top WR for the Eagles last week in terms of yards for Dorial Green-Beckham, who had only 33 yards. With a limited sample size, it is tough to make any decisive conclusions, but it will be a situation I monitor to see if the Steelers cornerbacks have improved enough to not make opposing WRs as playable in DFS as they were last year.

Quarterbacks to Target

Cam Newton (7,800) vs Atlanta Falcons- The Atlanta Falcons are currently ranked as the 2nd worst defense defending QBs, and they are going up against one of the best in the NFL this week in Cam Newton. Cam Newton is the most expensive QB this week on DK, but I think it is warranted. This game against the Falcons could be higher scoring than most people think. The Atlanta offense has been impressive in the first couple of weeks, while the Panthers defense has been a little more vulnerable than in recent years. This could lead to the Panthers having to score more points than expected, and as we all know the Panthers offense revolves around the reigning NFL MVP.

Kirk Cousins (6,500) vs Cleveland Browns- After a big win against the New York Giants in Week 3, it seems that Kirk Cousins has, for the time being, stopped the doubters. Following up that win, he will get a cupcake matchup against the Browns, who currently give up the 7th most fantasy points to the Quarterback position. One big stat that has been floating around is Kirk Cousins efficiency in the Red Zone this year. Cousins currently is last in the league with an 18.4 QBR in the Red Zone and I see some positive correlation coming his way this week. He is one of the league leaders in pass attempts inside the 20-yard line, and with a Browns defense who really struggles against the pass, we could see more conversions in the Red Zone for Cousins and the Redskins.

Quarterbacks to Avoid

Jameis Winston (5,400) vs Denver Broncos- Once again, Winston appears on our list of QBs to avoid. He will be facing a Denver Broncos defense who is top 10 in the league in points allowed to QBs and who arguably have the best secondary in all of football. Even though it is expected for Tampa Bay to be playing from behind, there are way more QBs in better spots than trying to be cute and taking Winston against this very impressive Broncos defense.

Ben Roethlisberger (7,100) vs Kansas City Chiefs- Big Ben is coming off of one of his worst games in recent memory, and things will not get easier for him as he will be going against a Chiefs defense which ranks 2nd in points allowed to Quarterbacks. In Week 3, the Kansas City defense picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick 6 times. Besides just the opponent, Roethlisberger's price puts him around Quarterbacks who are in better matchups and have more upside than the Steelers signal caller. Even with weapons such as Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell at his disposal, avoiding Ben this week is a move that could work out in your favor.

Running Backs to Target

Isaiah Crowell (4,400) vs Washington Redskins- Suggested a Browns player is something I do on rare occasion, but this week the matchup just seems too good for Crowell. The Redskins are the 2nd worst in FFPG allowed to the position and seem to just give up yards and points to opposing runners at will. On top of that it looks as the Browns will once again have Ryan Kessler under center, which should increase the workload for Crowell. In a great matchup with a rookie QB making his second start, Crowell should be relied on the carry the offensive load for the Browns this week.

Melvin Gordon (6,300) vs New Orleans Saints- I know a lot of people were watching the Presidential Debate this past Monday. While that was going on, many people missed out on the display that Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman put on against the Saints defense. The two Running Backs combined for 194 yards rushing, 102 yards receiving, and 4 combined touchdowns. Luckily for Gordon, he does not have to share as many snaps, and all that production is his for the taking. It could not be a better matchup for him this week, and I for one will have him in a significant number of lineups this week.

Running Backs to Avoid

Christine Michael (6,000) vs New York Jets- In Week 3, Michael finally had the break out game people had been waiting to see for years. He was able to rush for 106 yards and 2 TDs against a 49ers defense who had looked somewhat solid through the first two weeks of the year. If you closely at the stats, both touchdowns and the 79 yards occurred on the Seahawks first two drives during the first quarter. Michael was shut down for the last three quarters of the game, even with the Seahawks having the lead. He now goes up against the New York Jets who are a top 5 defense against running backs. I expect to see more of 2nd-4th quarter Michael this week than the one who showed in the first quarter in Week 3.

Jordan Howard (3,700) vs Detroit Lions- With the injury to Jeremy Langford, there has been a lot of buzz in the DFS community surrounding Jordan Howard. This week, he should be the workhouse back for the Bears seeing a high amount of touches against a defense who many seem as below average in the Detroit Lions. When looking at the number, it actually shows that the Lions have been a top 10 defense against running backs this year. With the amount of talk surrounding Howard this week, it can be expected that his ownership will be inflated even though the matchup on paper isn't the best. I can understand with his price that he does not need to knock it out of the park to hit value, but I do not see him having the upside in the matchup to get enough points to lead a lineup to a GPP win.

Wide Receivers to Target

Washington Redskins WRs vs Cleveland Browns- If Kirk Cousins is a suggested QB to target this week, it must mean the WRs are players to target as well. The Browns have allowed the 4th most points to opposing WRs, and its looks like a great matchup for DeSean Jackson (6,200) and Jamison Crowder (4,200) this week. The Redskins running game featuring Matt Jones is below average, and for them to move the ball, it is going to be through the air. Jackson is the big play threat who can have a 60-yard TD catch at any moment, while Crowder runs the underneath routes and brings great value on full PPR sites such as DK. I can see both having a high amount of targets this week in a matchup that both receivers can take advantage off.

San Diego Chargers WRs vs New Orleans Saints- Last week, every was all over Travis Benjamin (5,900) and Tyrell Williams (4,400) against the Colts, and both were unable to score a TD for DFS owners. It is possible that a lot of people could have some sour tastes in their mouth leading up to Week 4 and overlook them in a matchup against a Saints defense that allows the 2nd most points to opposing WRs this year. In a game that is expected to be high scoring, there will be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points to be scored. If it comes through the air for the Chargers, it should be coming from these two players.

Wide Receivers to Avoid

New York Jets WRs vs Seattle Seahawks- Brandon Marshall (7,000) and Eric Decker (6,300) form one of the best 1-2 WR tandems in the NFL, but that will not matter in a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. The Seahawks are a top 10 defense against the pass, and after the performance Ryan Fitzpatrick put up in Week 3, it is difficult to trust him being able to deliver to ball to both Marshall and Decker. This is a situation I play to avoid as these WRs are only as good as the QB throwing them the ball, and until Fitzpatrick shows he is back to his form in 2015, it is tough to plug these guys into lineups

Tennessee Titans WRs vs Houston Texans- To put this simply, Marcus Mariota has not looked great through three weeks, and a lot of that has to do with the Wide Receivers he has to throw to. The combo of Tajae Sharpe (5,000), Andre Johnson (3,200), and Rishard Matthews (3,100) just do not seem talented enough to get open and make big plays. They will be going against a Houston Texans defense this week who ranks 4th in FPPG allowed to WRs. The matchup is not good. The players are not good. Stay away.

Tight Ends to Target

Zach Miller (2,700) vs Detroit Lions- While watching the Sunday Night Football game in which the Bears took on the Dallas Cowboys, it really seemed like Miller and Brian Hoyer were on the same page. In crucial passing downs, Hoyer was looking in Miller's direction and on occasions were able to hook up on some big plays, including two touchdowns. This connection could be big this week against a Detroit Lions defense who gives up the most points to the tight end position. As stated above with Jordan Howard, the Lions have been somewhat formidable against the run, which should in turn lead to more opportunities for Miller to put up fantasy points.

Greg Olsen (6,000) vs Atlanta Falcons- Olsen this week has a fantastic matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons give up the 2nd most points to TEs, which was seen by the big game Coby Fleener put up against them on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Olsen is one of Cam Newton's favorite targets and it seems to be a tough week to not play him in DFS. It would not surprise me if Olsen is clearly the highest scoring tight end in Week 4.

Tight Ends to Avoid

Rob Gronkowski (6,500) vs Buffalo Bills- After missing the first two weeks and seeing limited snaps in Week 3, it is expected that Rob Gronkowski should be back in full for Week 4. The excitement to roster Gronk may excite some people, but this is a spot to avoid playing him in lineups. On top of all the questions of who will be playing QB for the Patriots this week, the Bills have been the 2nd best defense against TEs. This just all adds up to a wait and see approach with Gronk and look to target him in later weeks with Tom Brady and a better matchup.

Hunter Henry (2,700) vs New Orleans Saints- Although I do like most of the San Diego Chargers this week in a matchup against the Saints, this is a spot where I plan to limit my exposure. Henry had a decent Week 3, hauling in 5 catches for 76 yards. However, the one place the Saints defense has been able to limit production is at the tight end position as the currently rank in the top 10 in points allowed. At Henry's low price, he could see a decent amount of ownership in a game where points will be scored, but avoiding him completely could give players an advantage over other DFSers who insert him into lineups.



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