Well it's time for another dose of some DvP analysis. Hopefully, as we look through the DvP rankings for Week 5, we will be able to find that play that will hopefully lead us all to a successful week. For these earlier weeks during the season, we will compare the 2016 DvP stats to the 2015 season DvP rankings to notice differences as well as trends that seem to be consistent. The rankings will be listed from 32 (being the worst at the position) to 1 (being the best at defending the position). Based on this information, we will look at spots where we can use this information to take advantage of some under the radar plays to take advantage of for contests this week. Below are the current 2016 rankings through Week 3, the final 2015 rankings, and a comparison of the difference in their ranking between 2015 and 2016.

Teams on Bye: Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle

Quarterbacks to Target

Carson Wentz (6,400) vs Detroit Lions- The continuing story of Carson Wentz and the Eagles has to rank as the biggest surprise of the NFL season thus far. In Week 5, he gets a matchup facing the Lions who give up the 2nd most points to QBs of all NFL defenses. On top of that, Wentz will have a new target to throw to in Zach Ertz for the first time all year. In reality, the only thing holding Wentz back could be his own team's defense. If the Lions are able to score some points and keep it close, Wentz could be a QB who could score high and surprise some people this week.

Ben Roethlisberger (7,200) vs New York Jets- After throwing 5 touchdown passes in Week 4, Big Ben gets a matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are what many DFS players would consider a “funnel” defense, where they are top 10 in the NFL against the run but are a bottom 10 defense against the pass. In order for the Steelers to put up points, they will most likely come from throwing the football. With the numerous weapons at his disposal, it would not be surprising seeing Ben be the highest scoring QB of the week.

Quarterbacks to Avoid

Tyrod Taylor (5,200) vs Los Angeles Rams- The Buffalo Bills will clash this week with the Los Angeles Rams on the west coast and will be led by Tyrod Taylor. The Rams rank in the top 15 defending the QB and usually is not a spot I would immediately try to avoid, but with Tyrod missing his top WR in Sammy Watkins it just seems a little too much to overcome. Combine that with this looking like a slow-paced, low scoring game, the upside just seems to not exist for Taylor this week.

Ryan Tannehill (5,700) vs Tennessee Titans- In Week 5, Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins will host the Tennessee Titans, a team that ranks 5th in fantasy points allowed per game to Quarterbacks in 2016. The Titans have an underrated defense through 4 weeks. They have not allowed more than two offensive touchdowns yet this season, which seems to limit the upside for Tannehill in this matchup. He does have weapons in Landry and Parker, but this seems like a game where he will not be able to use them to their fullest potential.

Running Backs to Target

Jordan Howard (5,200) vs Indianapolis Colts- Making his first NFL start in Week 4, Jordan Howard was impressive running for 111 yards on 23 carries while also catching 3 passes for 21 yards. The main thing that stood out for me was how many touches Howard received. If he is able to get 20+ rushes this week with a couple targets against a Colts defense that ranks 4th worst in defending running backs, Howard could work his way up as the best point per dollar running back on the slate.

C.J. Anderson (6,900) vs Atlanta Falcons- One of the things I really like to look for is running backs on teams that are favored at home. On top of that, I like it even more if it's the running back that is on the same team as one of the best defenses in the NFL. This week, Anderson will have a home matchup against a Falcons team that is giving up almost 27 fantasy points per game to the position, good for 5th worst in the league. It also helps than Anderson is the primary back who will stay on the field from 1st to 3rd down. This is a game that I could see Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense turn the ball over, which would lead to more opportunities for Anderson to deliver for DFS teams this week.

Running Backs to Avoid

Ezekiel Elliott (6,800) vs Cincinnati Bengals- It's tough to argue against Elliott being one of the more elite fantasy running back this year. He has had at least 20 carries and 16 fantasy points all 4 weeks in the 2016 season. In his 4 matchups this year, he has only faced one defense that ranks in the top 10 at allowing fantasy points to Running Backs. That also happened to be this lowest scoring game this season and now that will change as he will face a Bengals defense that will be his toughest test to date. The Bengals are a top 10 team against RBs and are one of only two teams who have not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Elliott is priced around other RBs who are in better matchups so forcing him into lineups may not be the best idea in Week 5.

Le'Veon Bell (7,500) vs New York Jets- This is not something that I will write up often, but this is a week where it may not be a week to play Le'Veon Bell in DFS lineups. As stated above in the write up on Ben Roethlisberger, the Jets this season have been a formidable defense against the run, ranking in the top 10 at defending Running Backs. Bell is the most talented running back in the league and can produce fantasy points in so many ways, but this week may could lead to some struggles running the football. Bell is the most expensive running back in the main slate on DK, and in an unfavorable matchup this week, it could be time to take a stand and consider limiting his exposure in our lineups this week.

Wide Receivers to Target

Odell Beckham Jr (8,500) vs Green Bay Packers- There has not been a more polarizing figure in the NFL than OBJ over the first four weeks of the season. He has been the definition of drama, but this could all change in a matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have been the 3rd worst defense against Wide Receivers and it looks like their best corner, Sam Shields, will be missing again this week. OBJ's price has dropped and he comes at a discount this week. The stars seemed to have aligned for him to make a statement this week. Combining the DvP ranking and the expectation that the Giants should be playing from behind, Beckham should see a bump in targets that should lead to boatloads of production from him in Week 5.

Jordan Matthews (6,800) vs Detroit Lions- A trend has been continuing for the Detroit Lions defense…they are by far a team to attack through the air. Detroit currently ranks as the 6th worst team defending WRs and Matthews is the clear number one target for Carson Wentz in the Eagles offense. He is a risk as he has seen 14 targets in Week 1 but also only had 3 targets in Week 3 which makes him a prototypical GPP play. Detroit is above average against the run and with the mess the Eagles have with their depth at the running back position, it should lead to a high amount of chances for Matthews to produce this week.

Wide Receivers to Avoid

Julio Jones (9,600) vs Denver Broncos- Do not fall into the trap…. I repeat do not fall into the recency bias trap. Julio Jones had a historic game in Week 4, becoming on the 6th WR in NFL history to have over 300 receiving yards in game. All that will change this week in a matchup against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have been the best defense at defending the WR position this year and it really is not even close. On top of that, the Falcons will be playing on road which hurts Jones's prospects even more. There will be players this week who try to get cute and think Jones will be a great contrarian play, but with his high price and minimal upside, it would be best to try and not chase points in this matchup.

DeAndre Hopkins (7,700) vs Minnesota Vikings The Vikings defense is not something to take lightly. They have indisputably been the best defense in the NFL and are even better when they get to play at home. An interesting development has started to occur with the Texans, resulting in Will Fuller cutting into the production of DeAndre Hopkins. In 2015, one of the biggest factors in Hopkins production was the result of limited playmakers in the Texans offense. With the addition of Lamar Miller and Will Fuller, the Texans do not have to rely on Hopkins as much as they had to previously, which really show in Week 4 with Hopkins only being targeted 6 times. In this spot, it would be best to leave Hopkins off of DFS lineups.

Tight End to Target

Delanie Walker (4,700) vs Miami Dolphins- One of my favorite things to do is look for players who have seemed to slip between the cracks for a couple weeks and DFS players seem to forget about them. This week, it seems that Walker could fall into this situation. This week, Walker gets a matchup against a Dolphins defense who rank in the bottom 10 at defending Tight Ends. It is well documented that when healthy Walker is the favorite target for Marcus Mariota. At his price point, it looks like that Walker may go overlooked as people will either look to pay up or go cheap at the position. In a prime matchup for Walker, it is possible to get him at a low ownership in a high upside situation.

Tight End to Avoid

Kyle Rudolph (3,600) vs Houston Texans- Kyle Rudolph has been getting a lot of buzz from many DFS experts over the past couple weeks, which has put him on the radar for many DFS players. He has caught a touchdown in three straight games and seems to be on an upward trend, but he will face a Texans defense who have allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to the position. This game has the look of a defensive struggle with both teams having difficulty moving the football. There are many tight ends at a similar price point who are in better matchups and have a higher ceiling in Week 5. Due to this, a pivot to another TE could be a beneficial move for DFS lineups this week.



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