We are now through six weeks for the NFL season. At this point in the season, we now have a fairly respectable sample size which helps make the DvP rankings for each team a little more accurate. Also included into the rankings is a SOS component to help account for certain defenses who have had a more favorable to start the year. This week there are 12 games in the main slate due to 2 teams on bye and the London game on Sunday Morning.
Quarterbacks to Target
Philip Rivers (6,500) vs Atlanta Falcons- Rivers will be going into the matchups of all matchups this week where he will face the Atlanta Falcons who currently rank as the worst defense at defending the Quarterback position. This game currently has the highest projected total and is expected to have the Chargers playing from behind. It seems to look based on game flow that the Chargers will be playing catch up which leads to Rivers having to throw the football. This should turn into positive fantasy production for Rivers and lead to more opportunities which should turn into a successful fantasy day for Philip Rivers.
Blake Bortles (6,200) vs Oakland Raiders- This week Bortles will be facing a Raiders defense that ranks as the 6th worst defense in defending QBs for the 2016 season. This will be an interesting spot for Bortles as he has massive underperformed for the first 6 weeks which should lead to a lower ownership for Bortles in a favorable matchup. This game features two teams who struggle to run the football which in turn will lead to more stoppages of the clock and more plays to be run for each team. With the potential to have an increase in pass attempts against a bottom 10 defense in defending the pass, it could lead to Bortles putting up enough fantasy points to lead teams to the top of GPPs this week.
Quarterback to Avoid
Drew Brees (7,400) vs Kansas City Chiefs- After coming off a very impressive Week 6 at home against the Carolina Panthers, Brees will head to the Midwest and face a Kansas City Chiefs team who are a top ten team at defending the quarterback position in 2016. More than just the DvP rank, there are a couple of other factors that are going into the recommendation of avoiding Brees in Week 7. 1) There are years' worth of data showing that Brees is not the same QB on the road as he is playing at home. 2) It is widely known that Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest stadiums to play in for road teams in all of national football. 3) The Chiefs are a team that really likes to establish the run. This plays right into their hand as the Saints are a bottom 3 defense at defending the run. This should lead to more of a ball control strategy by the Chiefs to keep the clock running and limit the amount of possessions Brees and the Saints will have during the game. This week it seems that there are too many negative factors that will affect Brees to hit value based on his price this week.
Running Backs to Target
Devonta Freeman (5,900) vs San Diego Chargers- Freeman this week will be going up against a Chargers defense who have allowed the second most points per game to running backs this season. A big note for Freeman is comparison of touches between him and Tevin Coleman over the past four weeks. Freeman has had 62 rushing attempts and 18 passing targets. Coleman has had 31 rushing attempts and 15 passing targets, including single digit rushing attempts the past three weeks. I am started to see a small trend that Freeman is starting to get a little more majority of the market share which should pay off in a very beneficial matchup against the Chargers this week.
DeMarco Murray (7,200) vs Indianapolis Colts- DeMarco Murray will get a matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts who rank as the worst defense against the running back position. Murray is coming off of a Week 6 where he let a massive amount of DFS players down in scoring 12.5 points, his lowest total all season thus far. I believe Murray will get back on his 20+ point track against a Colts team who looks lost at trying to stop the running game.
Running Back to Avoid
Matt Forte (5,000) vs Baltimore Ravens- The analysis on Forte is pretty simple. He will be facing a Ravens defense that ranks as the second best unit at defending the running backs. He is also part of an offense that is just a mess. It is also alarming that his rushing attempts have decreased each week since Week 2 including a season low nine in Week 6. Bilal Powell has started to cut into Forte's touches and in a bad matchup it seems the best course of action is to avoid Forte in DFS this week.
Wide Receivers to Target
A.J. Green (8,600) vs Cleveland Browns- A.J. Green in Week 7 will be going up against a Browns secondary which ranks in the bottom 10 at defending WRs this season. Green is currently 4th in the NFL in targets and should continue to hog the target share on this Bengals. Andy Dalton should not have any resistance in being able to feed Green all the targets he wants and easily could be the top scoring WR on the slate this week.
Tyrell Williams (4,400) vs Atlanta Falcons- As stated above with Philip Rivers, Williams will be in a great matchup with the Falcons in Week 7. In addition to the matchup there is only other big thing to note that may fly under the radar. In Week 6, Williams was on the field for 73% of the offensive snaps for the Chargers while Travis Benjamin was on the field for 38%. It is starting to look like with Antonio Gates coming back that the Chargers offense is lining up in more 2 TE sets than any other offense formation. This should lead to more snaps for Williams and potentially more targets as a result.
Wide Receiver to Avoid
Antonio Brown (9,300) vs New England Patriots- Well, the nightmare scenario for the Steelers, especially Antonio Brown, has occurred once again. Ben Roethlisberger is injured and is looking to be out from anywhere for 2-6 weeks which means Landry Jones will be taking over the QB duties in Week 7. Lucky for us, we do have a small sample size for the Jones to Brown connection as this situation occurred last year. In the games Ben missed last year, Brown did not catch a TD pass which is a major cause for concern. On a positive note, Brown did have a six catch game where he had 124 receiving yards. However, none of those games came against the New England Patriots who are notorious at focusing on the best offensive weapon on the opposing offense. There can be an argument that this player could be Bell this week, but it would not surprise me if the Pats focus on shutting down Brown.
Tight End to Target
Dennis Pitta (4,000) vs New York Jets- Pitta in Week 7 will face off against a Jets defense that ranks as the 5th worst defense at defending the Tight End position. Last week Pitta saw 10 targets which was a season high and is a huge advantage at a position where that volume is rare. It is pretty clear that this was a direct result of Steve Smith having to miss a game due to an ankle injury. If Smith plays, I believe that Pitta is still a play but his ceiling should be lowered. In a week that seems to have a small amount of playable TEs, Pitta is one who should be considered for lineups.
Tight End to Avoid
Kyle Rudolph (3,500) vs Philadelphia Eagles- We know Rudolph is one of Bradford's favorite targets in the red zone this year, but that could be a struggle against an Eagles defense who has been one of the best in the NFL this year. On top of that, they rank as the second best defense at defending the TE. This game just reeks of a defensive struggle with both teams having a tough time trying to move the ball. This shows as Vegas has the total for this game at 40 which is the lowest on the slate and one of the lowest we have seen this season. Rudolph is very touchdown dependent and in a game where not many points are going to be scored, the odds look slim for Rudolph being someone who can win you a GPP this week.
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