NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are down to the final two games before the Super Bowl and Sunday brings a two-game slate on FanDuel. The weather could be a slight factor in the Green Bay game as there is snow in the forecast and it will be a cold game. Not that Tom Brady can't handle a cold game anymore but it is certainly tougher playing conditions for a team from the NFC South. As for the Chiefs-Bills game, the big news will be to watch the status of Patrick Mahomes, but early lines indicate they expect him to play. It will be a cold won, but nothing these two can't manage and winds should be pretty minimal. Both totals are set over 50 and there are plenty of weapons on all four teams to build a solid lineup this week.
Josh Allen - $6,900 - GPP Projection: 25.5
Now all four quarterbacks are viable this week but Josh Allen continues to be my favorite. Out of the four quarterbacks, he has the highest ceiling over the last eight games and is projected for the third most on the slate but only .7 behind Aaron Rodgers who is second. Kansas City actually allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and I am not expecting either game to be like the meetings from the regular season. Allen has been lights out of late and points should be flying in this one.
Ronald Jones - $4,600 - GPP Projection: 13.6
Running back is pretty pedestrian on this slate in terms of overall workloads and Aaron Jones faces a Buccaneers run defense that allowed 12.9 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Now while Leonard Fournette has been in the mix of late and Ronald Jones took a backseat last week, I still like Jones' upside in this spot. He faces a Green Bay run defense that I still like to target and Jones has shown breakout potential on any of his runs.
Devin Singletary - $4,500 - GPP Projection: 11.7
Now the Bills hardly ran the ball last week, but Devin Singletary still had ten touches. He works into the receiving game every now and then and the Chiefs allowed the 4th most receptions to running backs this season and 25.7 PPR points per game to running backs. Getting the cheap running backs right can be a huge edge, and Singletary is worth a look if he can find himself in the 10-15 fantasy point range.
Davante Adams - $8,000 - GPP Projection: 26.7
Realistically you can get two of the top wide receivers into your lineups this week and even Travis Kelce, or you can fade Kelce and get all three of the top WRs in. That of course comes with going cheap at running back which isn't tough to do this week. Adams draws a pretty favorable matchup and his upside is pretty much in line with Hill and Diggs. The Bucs secondary is improving but has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers and 1.13 touchdowns per game to receivers. Adams led the league in red zone targets at 32 and has 34% of the Packers red zone targets.
John Brown - $4,300 - GPP Projection: 11.6
Now nailing the cheaper wide receivers is going to be the difference-maker in GPPs and there are so many deep receiving cores left in the playoffs. The Bills are one of them and John Brown came back to life a bit against the Ravens, which was a tough matchup. Kansas City has limited fantasy production to the position this season but I still like the secondary options in this game. When Brown has been healthy this season he has been a productive number two option.
Mecole Hardman - $4,000 - GPP Projection: 8.2
A dart throw with home run potential continues to be Mecole Hardman. He will see around five targets this week but has the speed and playcalling designed for him to have big chunk plays. The Bills secondary is a good one but facing a Chiefs offense is a different task. Hardman will certainly be off the grid when it comes to trying to defend Kelce and Hill, which we will get to in a moment. At $4,000, Hardman is a WR3 option for some salary relief.
Travis Kelce - $8,000 - GPP Projection: 22.4
Fading Travis Kelce scares me a bit this week as the Bills allowed the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends, which Kelce contributed to this season by scoring two touchdowns against the Bills. Kelce is far and above the best tight end on the slate and the margin of fantasy points is going to be wide between him and the next scoring option. Pricing is a bit soft on this slate so you can easily fit in Kelce. In terms of upside, Kelce is the easiest lock for me.
Robert Tonyan - $3,600 - GPP Projection: 12.6
Now I like a two-TE type lineup this week and Robert Tonyan is intriguing. Tampa Bay allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends this season and nine total touchdowns. Tonyan is second in red zone targets on the Packers. He has touchdown upside and the second-highest ceiling over the last eight games, only second to Kelce. Tonyan projects for the second-highest on the slate and the Bucs TE situation continues to be a frustrating one to target. Kelce and Tonyan are the two options I like the most this week.