NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
The last regular season of the year is always a mess. We have multiple teams resting players and injuries continue to pile up. There are also plenty of games with nothing really up for grabs. 2020 has been chaotic but Week 17 of the 2020 season is going to be on another level. However, with all this, there are certain edges you can have as the casual player is going to overlook certain news. Ownership should be all over the place but teams with everything to play for are going to hone a little extra ownership.
Deshaun Watson - $7,700 - GPP Projection: 28.5
Houston doesn't have anything to play for this week, but the offense has been one of the best for fantasy this season. Deshaun Watson has carried this franchise and he's doing it with a hodgepodge group around him. The names are still good enough for him to have a strong season and also facing teams like Tennessee have helped too. The Titans have allowed 20.8 DK points per game to quarterbacks this season and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. This game was a high-scoring affair and we will continue to see these Texans games be shootouts because their defense is so bad.
Kirk Cousins - $6,300 - GPP Projection: 23.3
Going a little cheaper, Kirk Cousins has been playing very well in the second half of the year. He has averaged 23.4 DK points per game in the last seven games. That is more than Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert in that stretch. The Vikings are in a great spot to end the year on a high note, as they face the Lions who have clearly given up on the season. Overall Detroit has allowed 22.8 DK points per game. Minnesota has a 29.75 implied total and are without Dalvin Cook.
Melvin Gordon - $5,700 - GPP Projection: 17.1
There are a few mid-range running backs to look at this week. Melvin Gordon is one of them, who is now a lock for near 20 touches against the Raiders. Phillip Lindsay hit the IR last week and 16 rushing attempts for 79 yards. Gordon has rushed for over 4.8 yards per carry in the last four games. Now add in the matchup against Vegas, who have allowed 23.1 DK points per game to running backs this season. On average they have allowed 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game. Gordon is a great points per dollar value.
Myles Gaskin - $6,500 - GPP Projection: 18.2
Myles Gaskin has averaged 17.6 DK points in his last seven healthy games. He gets a Bills defense that hasn't impressed against the run and we know Gaskin is going to have a lot of touches. When he has been healthy, the workload has been heavy. Gaskin had 19 touches in his return last week, posting over 160 yards all-purpose and two scores. Gaskin has averaged 99 all-purpose yards per game this season.
Justin Jefferson - $7,600 - GPP Projection: 21.1
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are both in play this week and are some of my favorite options. Jefferson needs to have a big day to have that rookie record for receiving yards in a season. But overall, Jefferson has just been on fire and the matchup can't be any better. He has averaged 20.6 PPR points in the last seven games and now faces a Detroit secondary that has allowed 1.2 receiving touchdowns to receivers and 204 yards per game.
Curtis Samuel - $5,300 - GPP Projection: 17.6
While the Saints have improved on their numbers against the pass, I like this game to have some shootout potential. Curtis Samuel is cheaper and has seen plenty of touches to be viable. He is very productive and has averaged 16.6 PPR points per game. Samuel has also had a decent floor of late, sitting at 10.4 in the last eight games and a 62% consistency rating.
Mike Williams - $5,000 - GPP Projection: 12.2
With Keenan Allen ruled out for this week, Mike Williams is a GPP option to consider. He faces the Chiefs who have been good against receivers this season but this is a game where Kansas City is resting most of their starters on both sides of the ball and the Chargers are favorites here. Williams saw double-digit targets last week with Allen banged up and I would expect high volume again.
Robert Tonyan - $5,000 - GPP Projection: 11.8
While Robert Tonyan is a little bit expensive, he certainly deserves it racking up all the touchdowns this season. He gets the Bears this week, who have pushed a lot of production to tight ends with their secondary and overall just struggled against them the last two seasons. I like the upside this week, especially with the Packers gunning for the one seed and Aaron Rodgers looking to cap off an MVP season.