NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
This week is going to be tricky given there is weather issues in most games. Games in Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Green Bay, Chicago, and Baltimore all have high winds and/or rain. Now I am not putting a ton of stock into tournaments and will be playing the guys I like, but ownership might be shifted around now because of this. I am still attacking the slate using guys I like despite the wind, especially passing attacks that have guys that can get into space after the catch.
Derek Carr - $5,500 - GPP Projection: 20.7
Derek Carr is in one of these high wind games but I like him with the guys around him. Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs both can use their speed on shorter routes and Darren Waller is certainly a reliable weapon for the Raiders. Carr still projects as the second best value quarterback despite the winds and the Browns are allowing 21.2 DK points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Jimmy Garoppolo - $5,400 - GPP Projection: 17.8
If you are looking to escape the wind games, Jimmy Garoppolo is in Seattle and they have a 25.5 implied total. Seattle of course is a strong matchup for Jimmy G as they force opposing offenses to push the pace and have to throw a bit more. Seattle is allowing 368 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and a whopping 26.4 DK points per game.
Kareem Hunt - $6,900 - GPP Projection: 20.6
Kareem Hunt will carry some ownership with his name, but I love him this week in the shorter passing roles but also on the ground game with a full workload. Hunt projects for over 20 fantasy points in GPPs, and not much of a surprise in this matchup. The Raiders are allowing 25.3 DK points per game to opposing running backs this season and the Browns are slight home favorites.
Dalvin Cook - $7,500 - GPP Projection: 21.2
Dalvin Cook is a nice pivot away from the chalky running backs. He will be lower owned just due to the knock he took before the break and there are a lot of great matchups for running backs on the slate. This is one of them as the Packers continue to struggle against the run, and opposing backs have averaged 26.1 DK points per game. If Cook is healthy that workhorse role will be there.
Denzel Mims - $3,200 - GPP Projection: 10.5
If you are trying to fit in multiple high priced backs or trying to get exposure to the Chiefs offense that is very expensive, Denzel Mims is a punt play to look at. He saw solid targets last week against the Bills and is going to be a prime weapon moving forward. The injury stalled his rookie year but we are finally getting him out on the field. This will be a favorable game script and weather isn't a factor in Kansas City.
AJ Green - $4,500 - GPP Projection: 13.5
Scoring 15+ fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, AJ Green is once again a strong tournament value. He gets the Titans secondary that is allowing 28.8 DK points per game to opposing wide receivers, and 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game. Even with some weather, this game is still going to be high scoring and the over/under hasn't really moved.
Robert Woods - $6,300 - GPP Projection: 16.4
Robert Woods and the Rams passing attack isn't lumped in with the bad weather games. It is an average matchup for Robert Woods against an improved Miami secondary, but he is still a strong option and will be overlooked in the mid-range. The Rams have a three-touchdown implied total and Woods is a leading target share receiver for them.
Jonnu Smith - $4,100 - GPP Projection: 13.6
The last two dud games by Jonnu Smith have driven down his price tag. I like him in this spot with the Bengals defense allowing 68 receiving yards per game to tight ends and 0.86 touchdowns per game. Smith has a 17.5 fantasy point ceiling over the last eight games.
Trey Burton - $3,500 - GPP Projection: 9.9
With Mo Allie-Cox unlikely to suit up, Trey Burton is a nice bargain this week. He gets a Detroit defense that has struggled against tight ends dating back to last season, but of course this year they haven't played any tight end outside of last week and he put up double-digit fantasy points. Burton isn't a high target share guy but should see 5-6 touches in this one.
Saints - $3,400 - GPP Projection: 8.2
The Saints defense is at a discount in comparison to the Chiefs, who are in the best spot but have a high price tag to go with it. The Saints will face a Bears offense that continues to turn the ball over through the air and the Chicago defensive line will have its hands full with a good Saints pass rush. This should be a low scoring affair and while the Saints defense has been average this season, I like them in tournaments.