NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
With DraftKings breaking up the six games this weekend into two monster slates, I will cover a bit from both sets of games. These are three-game slate and while there are six-game contests, building lineups for smaller slates can be a bit tricky. We certainly want exposure to the bigger names but that comes at a high cost. We also want to have some differences, which means taking shots on players with lower floors. Don't be afraid to take some risks and/or leave some money on the table this week.
Josh Allen - $7,500 - GPP Projection: 30.1
You might be thinking everything is about low ownership in GPPs but when you have a quarterback that can have such a massive edge on the field, those who fade will be at the disadvantage. For me, that is Josh Allen and he has the highest value at his GPP projections, which is absurdly high but his ceiling in the last eight games is 37.2. Over the final five weeks of the season, the Colts allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The secondary has been a bit overrated than what their numbers show and Buffalo has plenty of weapons to match up with what the Colts will throw at them.
Ben Roethlisberger - $6,100 - GPP Projection: 21.9
I like this matchup for the Steelers passing game and a 200+ yard day and 3 TDs is well in the range of outcomes for Ben Roethlisberger. It is also a solid stack given the trio of wide receivers he has to throw to. The Browns allowed 30 passing touchdowns this season and the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. We should see a big day for the passing game as this Browns defense just allowed 315 passing yards and two scores to Mason Rudolph.
J.K. Dobbins - $6,600 - GPP Projection: 15.9
As bad as the Titans are against the pass, they are also not good against the run. Over the course of the season, they allowed the 6th most fantasy points to running backs. Dobbins finally took over as a predominant back over the final stretch of games which is a plus for his role moving forward. He has been tremendous as this Baltimore offense continues to rush for monster numbers. At $6,600 is a decent discount from some of the more expensive backs.
Nyheim Hines - $4,700 - GPP Projection: 14.2
This is where we are going to make the first major pivot. Jonathan Taylor has been a workhorse over the last few weeks and has dominated. Nyheim Hines has shown the upside before and has had some up and down weeks in terms of touches. Overall he has averaged just 9.5 this season but has had some double-digit touch games over the last few weeks which is a plus. Buffalo's defense isn't great against the pass but they also allowed the 11th most receiving yards to running backs. Hines has some PPR potential as always.
Chase Claypool - $5,200 - GPP Projection: 14.2
Cleveland has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and we will go with the lower-owned Steelers option out of the three and someone who has shown immense upside. Claypool had a 4-74-0 line earlier this season and a 5-101-1 line just last week, of course, this did come with Diontae Johnson being a little less targeted. For the price tag, Claypool is a decent bargain and the upside for 20+ points is there.
John Brown - $4,700 - GPP Projection: 13,3
The price tag is too hard to ignore here with John Brown, who battled injuries in the second half of the season but got a welcome-back game in Week 17 as we get into the playoff stretch. As mentioned above the Colts defense struggled down the stretch, and wide receivers had a field day with an 86-1085-7 line in the final five games of the season. Brown is a great value fit for this weekend.
Darnell Mooney - $3,900 - GPP Projection: 10.6
Darnell Mooney did pop up on the injury report midweek which is a slight concern but a backup plan of Anthony Miller and likely more targets for the tight ends will occur if Mooney is out. However, I am planning on him playing and with the Bears being ten-point dogs against the Saints, the pass attempts should be higher than usual. Mooney is better suited for the PPR scoring and the Saints allowed 35.8 PPR points per game to wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin - $6,300 - GPP Projection: 17.2
If Washington has any shot, the playmakers are going to need to step up and have a big game. Tampa quietly allowed the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and Terry McLaurin is really the only Washington receiver with any fantasy value. Other than that it is Logan Thomas and the running backs. We should see a lot forced to McLaurin this week, especially if they are trailing and that should be the case.
Jonnu Smith - $3,200 - GPP Projection: 10.9
While there are a few tight ends on the slate including Mark Andrews across the board, $3,200 is a free square for me. Jonnu Smith projects over ten points and has the best value as expected. Baltimore allowed 12.2 PPR points per game to tight ends this season and Smith found the end zone against them earlier this season.
Rob Gronkowski - $4,000 - GPP Projection: 10.9
The tight end position has seemingly been priced down for the playoffs, which is more than okay given the position was been a wasteland this year. Gronk projects for the third-highest PPR points on both slates and draws a favorable matchup with Washington being middle of the road against TEs.