Quarterback Analysis: NFL Divisional Round

Cash Game Plays

Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona comes in with the biggest team total on the weekend (28.5) playing against a team they manhandled just a few weeks ago. Carson Palmer did not have to do much in that game, and he hardly saw the field due to his defense scoring touchdowns. He finished the day with 265 passing yards and two scores. In my opinion, Palmer has the most weapons to work with of any quarterback in the playoffs, and he plays behind a line that gave up the fourth lowest amount of sacks this season. Palmer threw for an average of 292 yards per game, ranking fifth in the NFL. He also finished second, behind Tom Brady, in total passing touchdowns. Palmer will receive some MVP votes, and deservingly so.

Football Outsiders ranks Green Bay as the sixth best pass defense, as they did rank in the top 10 in passing yards allowed and total points allowed. This Arizona offense is scary good, however, scoring 30+ points in nine games this season. As the most expensive option on FanDuel, I don't mind looking elsewhere, but as the sixth priced quarterback on DraftKings? That's disrespectful. Tough matchup on paper, but there should be no issues against this Green Bay defense in the desert this weekend. I will gladly take Palmer and load up on some other Cardinals as well.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Julian Edelman is back in action, and this bodes well for Tom Brady's fantasy production. The arsenal of Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, and Edelman all on the field is something Brady has not had for quite some time. Brady led the league in touchdowns and ranked third in passing yards. With a mediocre running game in New England, expect Brady to turn it up playoff style. Brady has shredded passing defenses ranked in the top 15 this season. In six games against them, he has thrown 15 touchdown passes (2.5 per game). He has also averaged six more fantasy points at home this season.

It's another tough matchup on paper, as most of the QBs have this week. Defenses truly win championships, so no cupcake matchup for any offenses. Kansas City ranks as the fifth best passing defense, per FO, and have held passing attacks to just 224 yards per game. I can't imagine a game where Brady-Belichick team gets completely shutdown. If we were truly playing cash game QBs based on matchup, we would all have Peyton Manning and feel good about it.

GPP Plays

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Carolina has a 23.25 team total, just .25 behind New England. Seattle's defense is not one I would usually attack in tournaments, but Cam Newton's 45 total touchdowns has me thinking differently. Another tough matchup, but Newton has big time upside, even against this Seattle defense. Newton went into Seattle and put up 21 fantasy points, despite throwing two interceptions. Not monster numbers, but a four touchdown day is not out of the question, and Vegas doesn't think so either. Newton sees 23% of the red zone carries for Carolina resulting in 10 rushing touchdowns.

Seattle has a top-five defense and allowed the least amount of points per game this season. I still believe they are a beatable defense, as we saw above average offenses put up their usual 24+ points on them. Carolina being one of them. Seattle has also been beaten by good tight ends this season, and pairing up Newton and Greg Olsen is a nice ceiling for the weekend.

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning has the best matchup, and he is cheaper than Alex Smith on FanDuel and is $600 more than him on DraftKings. I am going to have some Manning shots this weekend, especially given the fact Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders do not break the bank alongside him. After ranting about epic 2015 track records and bad matchups with the first three guys here, we are going in an opposite direction. Football Outsiders ranks Pittsburgh 15th in pass defense and 28th in passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh possesses a very average secondary, as their run defense is the strength on that side of the ball. Denver has the second highest team total on the slate (28). Paying down for a guy like Manning on this slate is not a bad idea.