NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Elite Cash Game Play
Tom Brady, (QB) New England Patriots | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$9,000 | $8,100 | 1.2 | 1.600 | 7.800 | 1.00 | 66.3 | 31.3 |
I would not want to be the Colts this week against Angry Brady. Let us remember the Colts are the team who brought the whole Deflategate Scandal into our lives. Brady has been taking things out on the NFL all season, as he leads the league in passing yards per game with 347 and passing touchdowns per game at 2.75. Brady will be looking to pad those numbers against a Colts team that really has no answers for him. The Colts allow 287 passing yards per game and only have 6 sacks on the season. The only drawback to Brady this week is Vegas has the Pats as 7.5 point favorites, and that could lead to them running out the clock in the fourth quarter.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 20-30%
GPP: 10-20%
DraftKings
Cash: 20-30%
GPP: 10-20%
Aaron Rodgers (QB), Green Bay Packers | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$9,300 | $7,700 | 1.6 | 1.600 | 7.800 | 1.40 | 62.4 | 30 |
Rodgers has not played great the last couple of weeks, but he should be in for a bounce back game against the Chargers. Vegas has the Packers with the second highest team total on the board at 30. The Chargers have only allowed 218.8 yards a game through the air but are allowing 7.8 yards per attempt. They also are allowing 26.8 points per game. Rodgers, despite his struggles, is still first in the NFL in passing touchdowns with 13 and second in quarterback rating at 117.4. Just like Brady, he does have the drawback of being a huge 10 point favorite and might not be asked to throw the ball that much but still makes for a safe play this week.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 10-20%
GPP: 5-15%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-20%
GPP: 5-10%
Value Cash Game Play
Andy Dalton (QB),Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$7,600 | $5,700 | 1.8 | 2.000 | 6.300 | 2.00 | 64.2 | 23.8 |
How times have changed. The Red Rifle use to be a player who fantasy owners could not count on, but not this year as Dalton has played fantastic. Dalton is averaging just over two touchdown passes a game and 304 yards passing. He only has two interceptions on the year and has led the Bengals to an undefeated record. He gets a fantastic matchup this week against the Bills. The Bills have given up the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year and are allowing 274 yards passing per game. Buffalo has the third best run defense in the league and if the Bengals want to continue to stay undefeated they are going to have to rely on Dalton. I love Dalton on all sites, but especially on DraftKings where is only $700 more than site minimum.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 5-15%
GPP: 20-25%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-20%
GPP: 20-25%
Blake Bortles (QB), Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$7,300 | $5,200 | 1.2 | 1.800 | 7.200 | 0.40 | 64.4 | 20.8 |
Bortles has looked great the past two weeks throwing for 601 yards and five touchdowns and gets a fantastic matchup this week against the Texans. The Texans have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They allow 27 points per game and have allowed nine touchdown passes. What is most surprising about the Texans this season is, despite the fact they have J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney (who is most likely to miss this game), they have only sacked the quarterback six times. There are some injury question marks with Bortles, but if he plays he should easily eclipse his season average of 19.8 fantasy points per game.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 15-20%
GPP: 10-15%
DraftKings
Cash: 15-20%
GPP: 10-20%
Elite GPP Plays
Andrew Luck (QB), Indianapolis Colts | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$8,600 | $7,600 | 4 | 1.500 | 7.300 | 1.75 | 63.6 | 23.8 |
Luck should be back this week, and if the Colts want to have any chance at a victory, they are going to need their young leader to show up. Luck has been terrible this season with seven interceptions to only five touchdowns but did show life in his last quarter against the Titans. The Patriots are a middle of the road team against the pass allowing 230 yards passing a game and 1.5 touchdowns. With the Colts being a heavy underdog in this game, Luck will have plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points in this game.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 5-15%
GPP: 15-20%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-15%
GPP: 15-20%
Eli Manning(QB), New York Giants | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$7,800 | $6,800 | 2.2 | 1.600 | 6.900 | 2.60 | 65.6 | 23.3 |
I think it has come time to call Peyton Eli's older brother and not Eli Peyton's younger brother. Eli has been phenomenal this season. He has thrown 10 touchdowns to only two interceptions and 283 yards a game. He gets a terrific matchup against the division rival Eagles this week. The Eagles rank 26th in passing yards allowed per game with 280. They really struggle to stop the opposing teams top wide out and Eli has one of the best in Beckham Jr. This game is shaping up to be a Monday night showdown and I am fully expecting Eli to have another prime time game.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 5-10%
GPP: 10-20%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-20%
GPP: 10-20%
Value GPP Plays
Brian Hoyer (QB), Houston Texans | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$6,700 | $5,100 | 2.2 | 1.400 | 7.600 | 0.60 | 77.2 | 22.8 |
Hoyer finally gets the starting job back from Ryan Mallett this week in a great matchup against the Jags. Hoyer has looked great this season in his three games. He is averaging 260 yards passing per game and has thrown for five touchdowns. All three games he has appeared in have been in limited playing time which makes his numbers stand out even more. The Jaguars are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. They allow 260 yards passing a game, have only forced three total turnovers and are ranked next to last in points allowed per game at 29.0. Hoyer has a healthy Arian Foster to help take the pressure off of him. He also has DeAndre Hopkins on the outside who is on pace to break the single season target record and will be close to the reception mark. I love Hoyer this week, especially on DraftKings where he is only $100 more than site minimum for quarterbacks.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 0-5%
GPP: 5-10%
DraftKings
Cash: 5-10%
GPP: 10-15%
EJ Manuel (QB), Buffalo Bills | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Off. Plays Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$5,500 | $5,000 | 3 | 1.400 | 7.500 | 1.60 | 60.2 | 21.3 |
Manuel is an unknown commodity who has accumulated zero passing attempts so far this season. All signs are pointing to him getting a spot start for Tyrod Taylor and based on price he is worth a look. He is dirt cheap on all sites and will allow you to play studs at almost every position. The matchup is not the greatest but it is not the worst either. The Bengals allow 263 yards per game through the air and 20.2 points per game. The Bengals should be ahead in this game which will force the Bills to pass. Manuel is worth a bullet or two in a GPP for his price and what should be a low ownership level.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 0-5%
GPP: 0-5%
DraftKings
Cash: 0-5%
GPP: 0-5%
Login or Register to join the conversation.