The Conference Round is finally upon us, and we get three top four offenses in terms of points per game this season, then Pittsburgh three B's. It is a defensive nightmare for all four teams, and I really wish we didn't have to choose for DFS purposes. With an over/under of 60 in Atlanta, my general focus will be on that game. New England and Pittsburgh have their offenses, but both defenses should limit some potential. We will take a look at the top DraftKings GPP and Stacking lineups this week.
Optimal GPP & Stack Lineup
Hard not to like a quarterback from the Packers-Falcons game, and Aaron Rodgers is coming into this one red hot. He is the preferred quarterback this week, and the highest projected. Atlanta allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season. In the GPP stack, it pairs Matt Ryan with Tevin Coleman and Julio Jones. Ryan should torch this banged up defense, and I like Coleman's addition. Atlanta has a 32.5 team total, and simply the best offense in the league. Get yourself an Atlanta stack if you are playing this week.
The first GPP lineup uses Devonta Freeman, while Coleman sits in the second. A lot of that has to do with the way value shapes up between the two. Coleman is an interesting pivot because touches are not all that different between the two. Coleman has also looked better in the passing game. This is a plus matchup for both in that regards, and an average one when strictly looking at rushing numbers against the Packers. Both are in play this week, especially with that monster total. Ty Montgomery was the other back used in both lineups, and is in a sneaky good spot. He saw seven targets in the passing game last week, and I would expect a similar number. Atlanta ranks 26th against backs in the passing game, with a 16.7% DVOA.
The same wide receiver core is used in both lineups, and it's easy to see why. The Atlanta/Green Bay passing attacks both are in the best spots, and the correlation should be unreal. With Jones first of all, Green Bay ranks 28th against opposing WR1s. He should be healthy enough to play this week, and we saw what Dez Bryant did to them last week. Jones is my top wideout this week. On the other side of that game, it is likely Jordy Nelson misses this week, meaning Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will be the featured guys again. Atlanta hasn't been that bad in fantasy production allowed to wideouts, but this offense will put up their points.
Getting into the bottom third of these lineups, Jared Cook is more viable on DraftKings this week with a better price, even though he's the most expensive on both. Atlanta allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, and Cook is coming off of a career game. His production should continue. The stack lineup punts with Jesse James, who was involved quite a bit against KC. I don't mind punting the position. Eli Rogers is another punt, yet one I am not thrilled about. I get the logic to open up salary for others, so that's really his purpose. I don't see defense being a high scoring position, and I doubt we get a defense over 7-8 fantasy points. If there is one, it's likely coming from Patriots-Steelers.