NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
From a fantasy standpoint, we couldn't have gotten a much better matchup between two teams. DraftKings is offering up some monster showdown contests for the Super Bowl, and if you are unaware of what a showdown contest is, there are some rules. It is a lineup that consists of six FLEX spots, and the top FLEX spot earns 1.5x fantasy points. When choosing that captain spot, you will see higher prices in the player pool, and in the rest of the FLEX spots, the prices are lowered. Kickers and defenses are also included. Value is crucial in showdown slates because you can't just jam every top player in. The value options are also riskier than what a full Sunday slate would look like, where we can hone in on players who are seeing a tick up in chances but haven't had the price adjustment yet. There are also no injuries leading to must play values.
We have a pretty strong duo of quarterbacks for this game, wouldn't you say? Patrick Mahomes was second in DraftKings scoring this season, and Tom Brady was 7th. Both are going to be popular captain plays this week, which makes sense. However, I think you can look at Kelce/Hill in that spot as well. Mahomes has been crushing this postseason, completing over 70% of his passes and has five total touchdowns. He shredded Tampa in the Week 12 matchup, going for 35.2 DK points. Brady was able to get some garbage points and finished with 26.7. Brady has a $2K discount in non-captain pricing and a $3K discount in captain pricing.
Matchups don't matter a ton for Mahomes, given his fantasy production is consistent no matter who he plays. Tampa has improved as a pass defense and has a tremendous pass rush that we saw used against Aaron Rodgers. However, Mahomes has strong numbers against the blitz, where Brady has struggled at times this season. KC's defensive line looked tremendous against Buffalo and really decimated their offense. Of course, Mahomes ranks higher than Brady this week in projections, but I like the discount for Brady in multiple lineups. If I am building one, it is Mahomes.
This is a pretty pedestrian game for running backs, given some of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones's numbers this season. CEH has seen fewer touches down the stretch and has been banged up as well. Instead, we have seen Darrel Williams come alive, who had 13 touches last week and has been very efficient in the postseason. Le'Veon Bell has been nonexistent, and I would look towards Williams as a cheap back. CEH is a nice pivot play, given the price is lowered. The issue continues to be the Bucs run defense has been excellent the last two years and an easy fade in most circumstances for opposing backs.
Jones was a late scratch against Washington, and Fournette had 19 attempts and four targets. In fact, he has had 4, 6, and 7 targets over the last three games. Fournette also has 12, 17, and 19 rushing attempts. Kansas City struggled against the run this season and also allowed 93 receptions to running backs. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get 5+ targets out of the backfield this week. Jones was the sneaky pivot last week that flopped, but you can't rule him out as a cheap option to try and differ from the field, especially after he's left a bad taste in the public's mouth since the playoffs arrived.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
There are two clear-cut options here within the tier one group of wide receivers and tight ends. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are those two. They dominate targets and production and are not supporting a 7-8 pass-catching group like the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranked bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends this season. Building multiple lineups, both are going to be getting some captain spots. Kelce has seen in every game since Week 12 against Tampa, where he had 82 yards and gave way to Tyreek Hill's massive explosion. You also have to go back to this game to find the first game he did not score a touchdown in. Hill had the 60.9 DK point game against Tampa but is a target hog and has 182 yards against the Browns and Bills combined. With Sammy Watkins likely returning, that creates a log jam for the Chiefs third option. Mecole Hardman has been playing well and should see some run regardless of Watkins returning. Both are tournament options but have low floors.
Tampa has plenty of options in the passing game, which makes it tough for fantasy. Mike Evans has popped off a few times, but both him and Godwin have far lower ceilings than Kelce and Hill. Antonio Brown is also due back, and Evans is the guy who has emerged a bit out of this group but doesn't have the massive target share like the others. Evans essentially will need a two-touchdown performance, and the end zone is a must for these guys. Brown is intriguing against this Chiefs secondary. The limited production all year long to wide receivers, but he is a pivot away from Godwin/Evans. The Chiefs did allow the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends this season, but Cameron Brate has been the better fantasy play since the playoffs started. Brate has 16 targets over the three games, and Gronkowski has just seven.
Kickers & Defense
With an over/under of 56 set and two teams who don't make a ton of mistakes, defenses aren't appealing in this spot. You'd have to hope the Chiefs have some special teams magic to mask the points they covered. Now with that total, there should be some field goal opportunities for both sides. Harrison Butker has been a sound fantasy kicker for the last few seasons, while Ryan Succop has had his moments. However, both teams allowed less than 28 field goal attempts this season and less than 7 points per game. Butker would be the better choice of the two, given the Chiefs are favored, and Tampa could opt to go for it a time or two over kicking field goals.