Examining NFL DraftKings Cafe Value: Week 3

Welcome to Examining DraftKings Cafe Value. Each week we'll take time to review and assess what the optimizer is throwing at us, and make educated assessments based on the data we've been provided. The goal is to provide an in-depth look at potential value on the slate, alleviate struggles to find value-based plays.

Quarterback

While this isn't a perfect group of quarterbacks, if you're looking for value, this makes sense. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be without one of his best weapons this weekend in Brandon Marshall, but that won't stop him from doing well against this Chiefs defense. Matt Forte has looked tremendous to start the season, and while their game-plan will likely be a huge dose of him in the running game, he'll be involved in the passing game as well. Fitzpatrick has Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa to get the ball to as well. Based on the first two games of the season, the Jets secondary has been below part, especially compared to previous seasons, and actually seems exploitable for the Chiefs. If that's the case, then this should be a higher scoring game than the implied totals indicate.

Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles are both in interesting spots, and are cheap. While they aren't my first choices for value quarterbacks, I think it's extremely important to listen to what Cafe Value has to say here. Perhaps there's more upside in this game overall, than what is generally perceived. Flacco has formed the imprint of who he's going to target in the passing game this year, and while Dennis Pitta and MIke Wallace aren't the perfect options we hope for, they'll certainly be relevant as long as the Ravens struggle to run the ball. A Bortles/Allen Robinson stack is certainly in play this week, and while Bortles has struggled to start the year in a real football sense, his offense is still very fantasy-friendly.

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams has 68 touches in the first two weeks of the season, and should be in your cash game lineups, without a doubt. He's the top option by far, regardless of matchup, and isn't even that expensive. Other sites make it a bit tougher, but overall, this is lock and load with Williams as this is the last week before Le'Veon Bell's return to the lineup. With Doug Martin out for the next few weeks, we're really going to get a good look and idea of what Charles Sims has in store for us. He brings upside in the passing game and ability in the open field to make big plays. The Rams secondary has been weak, but their front seven is certainly not something to mess with. With his potential target-share in the passing game, Sims has a higher floor than generally thought. With all the cheap options on the board, Justin Forsett isn't someone I'm interested in. While he does pop up here, the Ravens run game simply isn't something I'm investing in at that time.

Wide Receiver

There's no denying Cole Beasley is a value at his price. The concern is actually diving down there might not make sense with roster construction this week, especially with all the other injury-based values are opening up. Beasley should have an easy time hitting value, and should have a reasonably high floor, but his upside in tournaments simply isn't there. Steve Smith Sr. is an interesting contrarian pivot off of Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta, I'm not sure how much exposure to him I'll have though. I want to see an actual big week before I start to buy into him being totally back from that major injury. Pretty much the same goes for Russell Wilson and his ankle. While I like Tyler Lockett and the potential he's shown, Wilson and the Seahawks simply haven't been right to start 2016, and with that considered, it's tough to jump onto Lockett with all the other values on the board.

Tight End

Zach Miller is an intruiging call that I honestly hadn't thought of to this point. With Brian Hoyer installed as the starting quarterback of the bears, it's actually viable the offense gets a bit more stability and consistent. Miller showed the ability to get open and be reliable at the end of 2015, and with a backup quarterback in at the end of last week's game, he got open underneath a few times. He's a nice and cheap price, certainly worth of tournament consideration. Clive Walford brings upside to the table, but with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree dominating the targets early on in the season, simply having a good matchup might not be enough to warrant a play from Walford. He had a nice week last week, but has really tough competition at his price point, especially Dennis Pitta. Same goes for Kyle Rudolph, and he's not even in a good spot this week. I do like his price, but with Pitta right there, it's tough to bank on Rudolph's touchdown appeal.

Defense

The Bengals are an interesting contrarian move in a game that should be a bloodbath. While my logic initially pointed towards the Broncos secondary against Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian could be a nice quarterback now that teams have a few weeks of his play on film. They're a really solid tournament defense. The Chiefs aren't a defense I'm targeting, nor are the Colts. However, I think these are fair talking points for maybe slowing our roll on the Jets and Chargers offenses. While they've done well the first few weeks, the Chargers have already lost their two main weapons in the passing game, and Brandon Marshall might miss this week with an injury. Overall it's tough to envision these teams staying quite as consistently good without their top weapons. While neither of these defenses are trustworthy, it's certainly something to note.