NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
The goal of cash games is to set yourself up with a high floor, and minimize taking a high amount of risk. In NFL we look towards volume with touches and targets, strong offenses, and obviously we still want to factor in defenses. Factoring in price and lineup construction is also very key towards cash games. While NFL has gotten chalky and you will need to make a few pivots, it is a way to be consistently profitable.
Kirk Cousins - FD: $7,600 / DK: $6,100 - Has Kirk Cousins been the safest option this season? Nope. But the playoffs and a four game slate means we have to get rid of some recency bias, and look at the matchups. The Vikings-Saints game predicts to be the highest scoring, not that the other games are giving them a run for their money. The Saints allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and generally quarterbacks have had above average volume due to them chasing the games or playing in shootouts. With the Vikings back and healthy, Cousins should be able to come through, as well as save you a few bucks to spend elsewhere.
Miles Sanders - FD: $7,000 / DK: $6,200 - Miles Sanders left last week's game, which was disappointing given the stretch he was having. I love him this week against the Seahawks, who really struggled down the stretch against the run. They allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five weeks. While Jordan Howard will work back into the committee, Sanders should see the ball plenty given their offense is lacking athletic playmakers. Most backs are in tough spots this week and while bigger names do have higher upside, Sanders offers you some savings especially if there isn't much production difference.
Devin Singletary - FD: $6,200 / DK: $6,000 - Devin Singletary saw 67 attempts and 16 targets over the final four games of the season, averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game. He has failed to find the end zone in that span outside of a receiving touchdown, and this has been his biggest fantasy flaw. Houston was horrendous against the run down the stretch, and Buffalo is the popular upset pick this week. Houston has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks, and the 8th most over the course of the season.
Michael Thomas - FD: $8,900 / DK: $9,300 - I'm starting my lineups where and then trying to figure things out. Michael Thomas has the highest floor of anyone on the slate, and has been a force all year long. This isn't a bad matchup against a Minnesota secondary that has struggled at times. Overall they have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Thomas has the highest target share of any receiver, and just continues to flat out dominate.
Adam Thielen - FD: $6,200 / DK: $6,200 - Some risk here given we haven't seen Adam Thielen at a 100% yet, and he quietly worked back in. Now on DraftKings, I don't mind paying a few hundred more for Stefon Diggs, however Thielen is quite a value on FanDuel. The Saints allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Given the nature of this game should be a bit high scoring, Thielen stands a good chance to go off as long as he is truly healthy.
Dallas Goedert - FD: $6,700 / DK: $5,200 - Now we will need to watch Zach Ertz news, but a lacerated kidney isn't a good sign. Dallas Goedert has seen 22 targets in the last two weeks, and would be a key guy with Ertz out. Now if Ertz plays, DK he is a fine play, but the price tag is high on FanDuel. There are not a lot of good tight ends on the slate, and paying up for one of the Eagles ones makes the most sense. The matchup also helps, with the Seahawks allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
New England Patriots - FD: $4,600 / DK: $3,400 - The Titans have the lowest total on the slate, and defenses are not priced up on either site. I have no issue plugging in the Patriots, and look for them to take out AJ Brown and Derrick Henry. Of course it is easier said than done, but the Patriots were one of the top fantasy defenses this season, and will be looking to bounce back after a bad Week 17 loss.