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Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
This week opens up much better for stacking than last week, as Indy travels to Kansas City, and New Orleans welcomes Philly. Weather plays a bit of a factor in the New England game, with the Chargers visiting. I am a bit hesitant about stacking here with the weather, but also the Chargers defense is one that can tame what has been an underwhelming offense compared to prior seasons. I am more inclined to use pieces from this game within stacks to try and differ from the rest. But, back to the high scoring games.
Kansas City has the highest total on the board this weekend, and this offense will go up against a Colts defense that is going to look good on paper, but has not seen an offense like this all year long. Stacking Kansas City has been profitable this year, and I wouldn't expect it to stop in the postseason. Patrick Mahomes is averaging the most fantasy points per game among any quarterbacks. As far as his stacking options go, Travis Kelce is my favorite option. Indy is allowing 76 receiving yards per game this season, and are bottom ten in fantasy points allowed. Tyreek Hill has insane upside, but is also someone who can disappoint for the price tag. Hill's speed can give the Colts troubles, and they struggle against short passing routes, as well as below average against targets over 20 yards. Damien Williams is in a good spot for the passing game, as the Colts rank 25th against opposing pass-catching backs.
On the Colts side, there are some doubts about them heading into KC and putting up points. It is a tough place to play, weather will be cold, but this is a team that I still want to target. Dontrelle Inman and T.Y. Hilton have been the productive wideouts, and WR1s against KC have seen an average of 10.8 targets per game. The Chiefs in general against WRs are allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game. Eric Ebron is in a good spot as well, as KC allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing TE. I have a bit of an issue going back to the running game, as Marlon Mack is coming off a career game against Houston. The game flow setup perfect for him, and if KC jumps out to a lead, it might be tough for him to get heavily involved. However, if this game can stay close, Mack will stay in the game plan, and the Chiefs rank dead last against the run.
Moving over to the other high scoring game of the week, New Orleans gets a home matchup against the Eagles, and their battered secondary is one to exploit. Trubisky hit 300 yards against this secondary. The Eagles have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, and this game has great correlation when you add in the cheaper PHI wide receivers to an expensive NO stack. Michael Thomas is my favorite pay up WR this week, as Philly allowed the most yards per game to opposing WR1s. They allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs on the year. Alvin Kamara is also going to be relied upon this week, and if you have the cash, add him into a NO stack.
The Eagles are a cheap stack, and New Orleans secondary might be getting too much credit here given the Vegas total is rather low for Philly. Nick Foles is still cheap, and has been showing some upside games filling in yet again. Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Golden Tate all offer up some great value, and I want exposure. An Eagles stack with Thomas is a good way to go this week, and it still leaves you cash to get some exposure to other games. Jeffery is my favorite, as New Orleans ranks 30th against WR1s this season. Tate saw eight targets this week.
Dallas and Los Angeles is a very interesting game, and ownership shouldn't be as high as the games mentioned above. As for Dallas, the matchup isn't all that bad, although I worry about them trying to lengthen drives and keep the Rams offense off the field. However, the Dallas stack has been incredibly straight forward as for who to target. Amari Cooper is in a good spot as the Rams rank 28th against WR1s, allowing the third highest yards per game to them. The Rams have been middle of the road against the run, and Elliot's usage in the passing game has made him a safe play and one who doesn't rely on game script. Dak Prescott is one I have a tough time using, but for the stack he is worth a look, and if his rushing upside can show up, then he can surpass value at his price.
Los Angeles didn't have Todd Gurley the last two weeks of the season, and C.J. Anderson filled in nicely. Gurley is expected to return at full strength, which adds a high upside option into play here. I do think the passing game is a contrarian way to attack this week with Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods. Ownership should be away from these names, which makes them good tournament options on a small four game slate.