NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Atlanta Falcons - Implied Total: 27.25
There might be some who put stock in Atlanta's road splits this week, and fade away. We saw Atlanta has the potential outdoors, and we saw that last week against Washington. Matt Ryan is coming off eight touchdowns over his last three games. Ryan faces a Cleveland Browns defense allowing 23.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is the 12th most in football. Overall Cleveland is allowing 423 yards per game, and stacking Atlanta gives you a variety of options, and outside of Julio Jones they are not that expensive. Ryan is currently QB2 on the season, even with one less game than the others around him. The matchup for him this week is one to exploit, and ownership should be fairly spread out around the league.
Looking at the pass-catchers, Jones and Calvin Ridley are the options I would use the most this week. Jones finally found the end zone, and despite one touchdown on the season, he is WR10. Ridley is WR17 this season, and has done it by finding the end zone. The Browns are allowing the 6th most yards per game to opposing WR1s, and the 11th most to WR2s. The Browns are allowing 26 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, which is the 10th most in the league.
Tevin Coleman is coming off a monster week, and has a chance to keep things going. Cleveland is allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing backs, and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns. Cleveland ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. Coleman should see 15+ touches this week, which is more than enough to pay off his price tag against this defense.
Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson are both strong correlation plays with this stack. Atlanta notoriously struggles against pass-catching slots and has gotten eaten alive in the slot.
Note: There are a number of stacks to choose from this week. New Orleans, Both Los Angeles Teams, and Kansas City will be a few other popular ones. These need to explanation at this point in the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Implied Total: 27
Whoever has been under center for Tampa Bay has thrown a ridiculous amount, and with this defense allowing plenty, this will continue. The Bucs combined quarterback play leads the league in passing yards, despite playing one less game than most. When Ryan Fitzpatrick has drawn starts, he has mostly played well. He is coming off another 40 passing attempt game, and has thrown 17 touchdowns over 184 attempts. Washington ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass and are allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They rank 8th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs as well, and allow the 9th most targets per game to tight ends.
OJ Howard has been over 50 yards in every game outside of Chicago. He has four touchdowns in his last four games, and continues to be a solid play. While Tampa has a handful of options, the volume provides value for everyone. Washington ranks 18th in DVOA against WR1s, allowing 96.9 passing yards per game. Mike Evans has been somewhat boom or bust this season, and has 34 targets in the last three weeks, but only 14 catches. The efficiency isn't going to be there at times, as we saw his one catch Week 9 performance. Adam Humphries is more of a DK play with the PPR scoring, scoring over ten fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. He has been over 75 yards in three of those four, and has seen 27 targets.
Tennessee / New England Game Stack
This game does not stand out like of some of the others, and will go overlooked outside of maybe a piece or two. I rather go with Marcus Mariota when taking a look at the quarterbacks, and this mainly has to do with the price. There are too many other options I like around Tom Brady's price tag. New England is allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and rank 18th in DVOA against the pass. New England is better against the run, but Dion Lewis stands out as someone on the rise. New England is allowing the 3rd most passing attempts per game to opposing backs and 61.1 yards per game. They rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to backs, so it is a pretty neutral matchup for Lewis. New England ranks 22nd in DVOA against WR1s, and Corey Davis' volume stands out, even though the floor is in the single digits. Davis is the only Tennessee WR to have interest in right now.
Josh Gordon and Julien Edelman are the two WR options that stand out from this game. Gordon is coming off a big game where he had a 5-130-1 line on ten targets. Gordon isn't priced up around the industry, and should be a popular value play. The Titans are allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, and rank 31st in DVOA against WR1s and 23rd against WR2s. Edelman is dealing with a nagging injury, but is still in line to play this week and be at his normal snaps. New England still has a 26.5 implied total this week, and are touchdown favorites.
James White is in a tough matchup against the Titans, who are allowing just 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. White's volume is what will carry him over right now. He has seen 37 targets over the last four weeks, and 37 rushing attempts. He has five total touchdowns, and over 300 yards in that span. White is a solid option even in all formats.