NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
New York Giants - Implied Total: 27
Sure, I feel like a giant sack of crap for even thinking about adding Eli Manning to a stack this week. Attacking Tampa Bay has worked almost every week, as Washington was a let down for those who tried to get cute stacking Alex Smith. The Bucs have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. While yes they face quarterbacks of the elite level in the division twice, they have allowed big games to Mitch Trubisky, Andy Dalton, and Baker Mayfield. Manning comes in within the top ten in terms of Cafe Value, and applying the yards and fantasy points allowed models, he jumps to top five in projections for the week. You can certainly stack without him, but adding in Manning will make it a bit more contrarian.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th against WR1s this season, allowing 8.8 attempts and 85 yards per game. WR2s have also had good luck, with 70 yards per game, as they rank 31st against them. Tampa has also struggled against tight ends, who have torched them for 77 yards per game, and have seen 6.9 targets per game. Running backs in the passing game have fared well with matchups against Tampa. They are averaging 7.1 targets per game, and 51 yards per game. Only the Saints have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as the Bucs have allowed the second most, despite playing one fewer game than a few of the others within the top ten. Sign me up for some Odell Beckham Jr this week. Sterling Shepard would be a little lower of a floor move, but is interesting if you are building multiple versions. Evan Engram is one that stands out the most here. Tight end is a little thin this week, and Engram is interesting with the Bucs allowing the second most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Over the last five weeks, Tampa has allowed the 7th most fantasy points. As mentioned above they have struggled against them in the passing game, but have done well against them on the ground at times. The cracks are starting to show, and they have allowed 440 rushing yards and seven touchdowns over the last five weeks. Saquon Barkley is a premium play regardless of stacking purposes.
Stacking Notes: New Orleans is going to be a stack to consider once again. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas are the main options facing an Eagles defense that is struggling and also dealing with injuries. If you are playing slates with the Monday night game involved, you know what to do with those two teams. Otherwise we should see a pretty spread out week.
Philadelphia Eagles - Implied Total: 24
Not much has changed over the last five weeks for New Orleans, as they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, and the second most to quarterbacks. This is even mixed in with the absolute dud by the Bengals offense. Carson Wentz is averaging 24.4 fantasy points per game over his last three, and has a 21 fantasy point floor over his last eight games. Averaging 38.4 attempts per game, and 0.33 fantasy points per snap, he grades out as one of the better targets in this matchup. Wentz also has a handful of stacking partners to go with.
New Orleans ranks 31st against opposing WR1s this season, allowing 83 yards per game. It has been WR2s that have really torched them, with 101 yards per game, as they rank 32nd. This sets up a nice one-two punch with Golden Tate and Alshon Jeffery, who are both reasonably priced around the industry this week. Tate was limited in his first game, and we enter week number three with the team. I am willing to gamble on him having a larger role and more snaps in this matchup. Jeffery has seen 8.6 targets per game this season, and 1.9 fantasy points per target. Jeffery may not pack the same punch as he once did, but he is still a quality play with a strong ceiling.
The Saints one area of strength against the pass this season has been against tight ends. They are allowing just 42.4 yards per game, and have allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game. The Saints have not faced a strong tight end this season, and Zach Ertz is someone I don't mind using given the matchup. It has a lot to do with his volume, averaging 11 targets per game, and 2.09 fantasy points per target. He has seen 42 targets the last four weeks, catching 34 of them for 352 yards and four scores.
Dallas Cowboys - Implied Total: 22.5
The Cowboys offense is going to start with Ezekiel Elliot who gets a tasty matchup against the Falcons this week. They have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing backs this season, and of course a big chunk of that is coming through the air. Elliot has turned in more usage in the passing game, with 48 targets this season, catching 35 of them for over 250 yards and two scores. Atlanta is also allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, and over 115 yards per game. Elliot averages 24 touches per game, and 1.16 fantasy points per touch.
Amari Cooper has been heavily involved since arriving in Dallas, and is the only pass-catching option I have interest in this week, and likely moving forward. Atlanta ranks 30th against WR1s, allowing 76 yards per game. Cooper has seen 18 targets in his two games with Dallas, catching 11 passes for 133 yards and a score. Atlanta is allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs this season, and Cooper's volume and price puts him on the spot.
If I said Dak Prescott has scored more fantasy points over the last five weeks than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees would you believe me? Well, he has, and in once less game than Brady too. Prescott has looked a lot better, and you may have already seen the strong schedule the rest of the way. That will kick off this week, with Atlanta allowing the third most fantasy points per game to QBs. The Falcons have also allowed the 4th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Prescott is at a value price this week, and worth a share in this matchup.