NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Indianapolis Colts - Implied Total 30
While Andrew Luck's volume has gone down over the last few weeks against bad opponents, and he faces another one this week, the multiple touchdowns continue. Luck has completed over 70% of his passes over the last four weeks, and has thrown 13 touchdowns. His last game below 20 fantasy points was Week 3 against Philadelphia. Looking through Miami's recent stretch, they have allowed nine touchdowns over the last four weeks, and over 200 yards in each game, outside of against Aaron Rodgers, where he had 199 passing yards. This is a week where we don't have Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes and are also dealing with five games not being on the main slate due to Thanksgiving and the primetime games. The Colts have a monster implied total, and 80% of Indy's touchdowns have come through the air. Over the last three games it is 64%, which is about league average.
The Colts make it fairly simple when trying to select a WR to pair with Luck. T.Y. Hilton is coming off a monster week, and will get the Dolphins, who rank 22nd against WR1s. In games over a 50 over/under, Hilton has averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game, compared to 13.5. He also sees a major jump in touchdown production. It is tough to consider any other wideout, even with the chance of a random touchdown to Chester Rogers or something. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron are tricky to figure out, as Ebron is coming off a week where he saw zero targets. Ebron has upside, but literally a zero for a floor. Doyle's upside is pretty capped for GPPs, and is more of a DK play with the PPR scoring. I would likely avoid both, and stick with Hilton.
Marlon Mack is inside the top ten in fantasy points per game over the last five games among running backs. This is a great spot for Mack, as Miami is allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game over the course of the season, and the 6th most over the last five weeks. Mack has seen, 19, 25, 12, and 16 rushing attempts in the last four games, and at least two targets in the passing game. Mack is a standalone value this week, but also needs to be considered in the stack as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Implied Total 29.25
The quarterback change in Tampa is continuing, as Jameis Winston will start this week, yet is not guaranteed to finish either. Regardless of quarterback this season, they are averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. They are also averaging the second most passing attempts per game between the two. San Francisco has been middle of the road in fantasy points allowed this season, allowing 22.2 fantasy points per game. Because we are seeing crazy high pass production, 22.2 fantasy points per game looks modest. Winston still has potential this week, but I am limiting myself to tournaments here. Because of the high passing production, Tampa Bay wide receivers are scoring the most fantasy points per game this season at 37.7 fantasy points per game. The 49ers are allowing the 12th most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. Mike Evans ranks 7th in fantasy points among wide receivers over the last five weeks. He has also seen the most targets among fantasy points in that same span. Adam Humphries is 12th in fantasy points over the last five weeks, while DeSean Jackson is 26th. The passing game should be wild this week, and it is a fairly cheap stack to consider in what Vegas expects to be one of the higher scoring games on the slate.
Seattle Seahawks - Implied Total 21.75
Well this stack took a bit of a turn when Doug Baldwin popped up as a DNP on Wednesday, but all signs are pointing to him just being rested. Baldwin is getting closer to 100%, which he hasn't been all year. Baldwin scored his first touchdown of the season last week, and saw 10 targets, going for a 7-52-1 line. Carolina's pass defense has looked incredibly suspect over the last few weeks, and Seattle heads on the road which is a bit scary, but this is also a contrarian value stack so it is going to come with some risk. Russell Wilson may come in as a surprise that he has been the fourth 9th highest scoring QB in the last five weeks, despite playing one less game than a few others. Wilson has thrown 10 touchdowns in the last four games, rushing for 165 yards. The Panthers are allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to QBs in that span, and the 7th most on the season. Tyler Lockett is one of my favorite values this week, going up against a Panthers defense that ranks 26th against WR2s. Carolina is a better run defense, although they were just torched by Kerryon Johnson before he left the game last week. Lockett is averaging 2.77 fantasy points per target over the last eight weeks, and 11.5 yards per target.