NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Minnesota Vikings - Implied Total 21.5
I found it a bit odd that Minnesota has one of the lower implied totals on the week. Minnesota is averaging 28 points per game on the road this season. New England is allowing 65.7 plays per game this season, and 64.7 per game over the last three. They are also bottom ten in yards allowed, allowing 377 per game. New England is doing the bend don't break thing again, allowing 22.6 points per game. However playing New York, Miami, and Buffalo is going to help those numbers out quite a bit. The Pats are allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season (24.7), which sets up Kirk Cousins with a very nice matchup at his price across the industry. Cousins has thrown for the 5th most passing yards to date this season, and 22 touchdowns. He is averaging 24 fantasy points per gam and sits as QB8 on the season. Cousins has one of the best stacking duos in the game as well.
You have both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen sitting inside the top 15 for WRs in PPR scoring. Thielen is seeing 29% of the targets, with Diggs right behind at 25.9%. Thielen, Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph are all over double digit red zone targets this season, but Thielen leads the way with 16. While the fantasy points allowed to WRs looks pedestrian in this matchup, New England has been torched by teams with above average wide receivers.
The running game isn't going to get a lot of love for me this week in Minnesota. I am more on the passing game. It is hard to use Dalvin Cook over some of the other backs on the slate, even though he looks fully healthy and being used optimally.
Note: With a full slate back this week, and Kansas City with Los Angeles back off bye, things are pretty straight forward there. The Chiefs and Rams both are viable in stacks this week as they are each and every week. It has also gotten repetitive talking about stacking against Tampa Bay, so feel free to go with Carolina. We can talk some stacks that are not featured every week.
Houston Texans - Implied Total 27
Cleveland is allowing 71.8 plays per game to opposing offenses this season, and over 400 yards of offense. This is all to go along with allowing 25.7 points per game. Houston is looking to keep their win streak going this week, and Vegas is heavy in favor that they will. The Browns are allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season at 24 fantasy points per game. DeShaun Watson should see modest ownership in GPPs which I will be happy about with his upside. Watson is currently QB 9 on the season, averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game. The last five games against Cleveland, QBs have scored 29.8, 21.5, 32.6, 25.8, and Cincinnati QBs combined for 29.8 with Dalton going down with an injury.
WR1s against Cleveland are averaging 79 yards per game and 10.2 targets per game. DeAndre Hopkins steps in as a pay up option at WR. He is seeing 33% of the targets in Houston, and 35% of the targets inside the red zone. He has seven touchdowns coming from inside the 20 this season, and is one of my favorite WR options regardless of stacking on the slate. Trying to find another pass-catcher with GPP type upside in Houston is tough. I am going to resort to Lamar Miller who is coming off a monster game against Tennessee. Running backs have torched the Browns this season for over 20 fantasy points per game, and over the last five weeks they are allowing 26 fantasy points per game. Miller has tallied 18.2 touches per game over his last five.
Atlanta Falcons - Implied Total 24.75
This is going to be a test for the Baltimore Ravens defense this week, and the same can be said for Atlanta's offense. At home this season they are averaging 30 points per game to go with 424 yards per game. Baltimore is on the opposite end of the spectrum, holding teams to 18 points per game and under 300 yards of offense per contest. The Falcons have slipped up on numerous occasions this season, which has led them to being on the outside looking in for the playoff picture. The Falcons at home are usually not a low owned stack, but this week they should be. It is hard to see with the Rams, Panthers, and Chiefs on the slate. Matt Ryan is averaging 27.4 fantasy points per game this season, and is on pace for over 5,000 yards and 35 touchdowns. Julio Jones is on pace for nearly 1,900 receiving yards. This is the duo to start with, but even the secondary receivers are in play here with Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu.
If you want to differ at tight end this week, Austin Hooper is in a sneaky good spot. He has seen 24 targets over the last three weeks, catching 19 of them. He isn't a big yardage guy, but on PPR sites he can rack up some points, especially if the touchdown comes. Tight ends against Baltimore are averaging 7.8 targets per game and 65 yards per game. Over the last five weeks the Ravens are allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing TE.
This stack also comes with potential to round out the Ravens in a game stack as the Falcons still sport one of the poorer defenses in the league.