Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Atlanta Falcons - Implied Total 26.75
Atlanta has nothing to play for this week, but still have one of the higher team totals. They are on the road where we have seen a big difference within their offense, and not in a good way. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season, but I don't mind taking some shots with Atlanta because they are going to be overshadowed by other teams. The Bucs have allowed 25.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, and Matt Ryan has averaged 25 fantasy points per game over the last five games against Tampa. That has paired up well with Julio Jones who has averaged 26.9 fantasy points per game in the last five games against Tampa. Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley are interesting plays here as well. The Bucs have allowed the seventh most fantasy points per game. Jones is a bit banged up, and a contrarian route would be to use Sanu and Ridley over Jones in a three-man stack. Jones should also see lower ownership because of the injury tag.
Tevin Coleman is a tournament back to consider as Ito Smith is out and Brian Hill will be the backup to Coleman. The Bucs have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season. Coleman sees about 14 touches per game, averaging 9.9 yards per touch, and over 1.10 fantasy points per touch. Given the price he is worth a look.
Note: Week 17 is always going to be a bit wonky with usage and teams taking weeks off because they are resting for playoffs. Kansas City and Pittsburgh will be the stacks people target, and the usual names are in play there as they have been all season long. I will be taking a more contrarian look at this week in terms of stacks.
Green Bay Packers - Implied Total 26.25
The Packers have shown the ability to produce offensively the last few weeks, and you have to think Mike McCarthy's departure has a lot to do with it. Over the last five games against Detroit, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 29.8 fantasy points per game. He has thrown 15 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards in that span. Davante Adams has averaged nine receptions and 54 receiving yards in the five games against Detroit, and also has five touchdowns. Adams is another big wideout with a questionable tag this week, that could play part in ownership. If he sits, this opens up a lot of value. Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both had strong weeks against the Jets. St. Brown will likely sit out this week though, as he has a concussion. MVS will get run, and Randall Cobb will as well. Jake Kumerov is a name to keep an eye on if Adams is out too.
Jamaal Williams has been a heavy workhorse, and had another monster week in the absence of Aaron Jones. The Lions rank 15th in allowing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Williams is a tremendous option this week, and is inside our top ten for Cafe Value. He is also projected as the fourth highest scoring back.
Buffalo Bills - Implied Total 22.75
Lets get weird here with the Buffalo Bills, who are also a value stack to use with pieces of other expensive options. This can round out a contrarian lineup without sacrificing some of the stud. The Dolphins are allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Over the season, the Dolphins are also bottom ten in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Josh Allen has had a strong floor, and the rushing potential is there again. His price has come up a bit, but deservingly so. He also has two stacking partners as Robert Foster and Zay Jones are cheap WRs to consider. Over the last five weeks, Miami is allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Foster has posted 52, 108, and 104 receiving yard games in his last three outings, and is averaging 22 yards per reception. Foster is a deep threat but is getting volume that makes him a safe play. Jones has been a bit more boom or bust, as he has two games in his last for below 30 receiving yards. His other two have a 5-67-1 line and a 4-67-2 line. The targets have been there with 33 targets over the last four weeks. Allen had over 100 rushing yards against this Dolphins team a few weeks ago, with 231 passing yards and twpo touchdowns.