Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Implied Total 30.5
The Steelers are usually a team I briefly mention, but they are in a smash spot this week against Atlanta. For one, Pittsburgh is at home where Ben Roethlisberger has had pretty severe splits over the past few seasons. Since 2015, he has averaged 28 fantasy points at home compared to 17.9 on the road. In game totals over 50, Big Ben has averaged 26.3 fantasy points per game in that same time span. The Falcons injury report is filled with key defensive players, and it shows. They have allowed 30.5 points per game on the season, and Pittsburgh's defense has not been much better allowing 29 per game. Both teams are also top ten in pace this season, Pittsburgh ranks 6th, while Atlanta ranks 10th. The Falcons have allowed three 30+ fantasy point games to opposing QBs this season, all three throwing over 300 yards and three touchdowns. The only quarterback to not hit this mark, was Nick Foles. Big Ben is a bit expensive these days, but worth it this week.
Antonio Brown is in a good spot this week, with Atlanta ranking 22nd in DVOA against WR1s, allowing 74 yards per game. Atlanta also ranks 27th against WR2s, allowing 58 yards per game. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been dominating this season, with a 31-416-1 line already on the year. Brown has the touchdowns, but not the yardage, with a 29-272-1 line so far. Smith-Schuster has seen 13 red zone targets this season, which is first among WRs, and second among all skill position players. Brown has 27% of the targets for Pittsburgh overall, with Smith-Schuster sitting right under him at 25%. With Atlanta allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season, this is a strong place to target wideouts.
Looking at targets within this team, James Conner is third on the list with 26, and has been in that 6-7 range most weeks. The Falcons are up to their usual, allowing the most receptions to opposing backs this season at 42. They have also allowed the fourth most yards. With 12 passing attempts per game going to backs against Atlanta for 78 yards per game, there is a good shot Conner can rack up some production in the passing game. While Le'Veon Bell is due back soon, it is time to hop back on the Conner train.
This is a game to target, even on the other side. Pittsburgh is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and rank 19th in DVOA against the pass. The Steelers rank 17th in DVOA against WR1s allowing 90.7 yards per game, and 20th in DVOA against WR2s. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are in play yet again this week, while Matt Ryan is as well.
Note: The Falcons as briefly mentioned above are going to be stackable this week, as well as the Los Angeles Chargers. With those two being popular teams within the stacking article already, you will find them here this week. The Chargers are stackable with Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, and Keenan Allen against a weak Oakland defense.
Green Bay Packers - Implied Total 26
The Green Bay injury report is going to dictate this stack quite a bit. Randall Cobb is already ruled out for this week, while Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams are still hopeful to play. Adams is returning to practice, while Allison needs to be cleared from concussion protocol first. The target share looks like this right now -- Adams (26%), Allison (17%), Cobb (16%), Graham (16%)
Cobb being out already opens up some more targets, and if Allison and/or Adams are out, this opens up a ton of value. Detroit ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 27th against the run. I am prepping for Adams to play this week, and Detroit ranks 28th in DVOA against WR1s, and 22nd against WR2s. This role will be either with Allison or Marquez Valdes-Scantling this week. MVS played more than half the snaps filling in last week, and is the guy in Green Bay to fill in for the injured wide receivers. He is dirt cheap across the industry, and will be a popular play regardless of stacking if everything goes in his favor. If Allison plays, he has been a solid value this season. He has been over 60 yards in each game.
Aaron Rodgers has averaged 28.5 fantasy points per game over his last six games against Detroit. Green Bay ranks inside the top ten for passing attempts this season, although I would expect Aaron Jones to get more involved as the season goes on. Rodgers is a nice pivot away from chalky quarterbacks like Ryan and Big Ben. Jones has already looked very good since returning, and is easily the best back the Packers have. He has 107 yards on 17 attempts this season with a touchdown. The workload should continue to grow. The Lions have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season, including three 100-yard rushers.
Detroit Lions - Implied Total 25
The passing game on the other side of this Packers-Lions game is one to look at. Matthew Stafford has been a strong fantasy play this season, and ranks inside the top ten in passing attempts. Stafford has averaged 25 fantasy points per game over his last eight against Green Bay, and these games have been on the higher scoring side. Stafford has seven touchdowns over the last three games, and a QB rating over 100. Stafford is also a solid bet for over 300 yards, which helps out on DK.
Green Bay ranks 18th in DVOA against WR1s and 19th against WR2s this season. The Packers have yet to really see a wide receiver core like Detroit, outside of the Minnesota game where they allowed over 200 yards and three touchdowns to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay have been two big fantasy producers this season. Tate has seen a whopping 27% of the targets, while Golladay is at 19%. Golladay and Tate both are in the top 30 in points per snap this season, and top 15 in receiving yards. I do like this stack a bit more on DK with the PPR scoring for Tate, and 300 yard bonus for Stafford. On FanDuel I would be more inclined to go elsewhere.
Cincinnati Bengals - Implied Total 27.25
The Bengals are going to be without John Ross and Giovani Bernard this week, which makes things very interesting for Joe Mixon. There is definitely a concern coming off some cleanup knee surgery just a few weeks ago, and all of a sudden he is back in a full workload. The good sign is that he was removed from the injury report and has been practicing this week. Through the first two games, Mixon had 38 attempts and six catches. He is a workhorse and enters this week as a touchdown favorite with Cincinnati owning a 27.25 team total. The Dolphins are allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, and some big games in the passing game as well.
The passing game is interesting here as well with Andy Dalton playing well fantasy wise, and A.J. Green healthy with Tyler Boyd earning a spot. These are the three most interesting options for me this week, even with Tyler Eifert leaving the tight end spot open. Green and Boyd both have seen 23% of the targets, and Green has been churning out touchdowns with six on the year. Boyd has caught 68% of his targets this season, and has seen seven red zone targets, which ranks second to Green on the team. This is still a reasonably priced stack this week. I will say Xavien Howard shadowing Green is concerning for me. Miami is first in DVOA against WR1s this season, largely due to Howard shadowing opposing WR1s. They rank 14th against WR2s, allowing 20 more yards per game to them. A Dalton-Mixon-Boyd stack this week is certainly a way to go.