NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Implied Total 27.25
Well this is not going to fool anyone, and this is going to be one hell of a chalky game this week. It is too good to pass up, and the overall game stack is one that I want in cash and tournaments. You will really have to hit on some contrarian pieces to differ from the rest of the lineups this week, but this game needs your exposure. Atlanta currently ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 31st in DVOA against the run. They are 23rd in DVOA against both WR1s and WR2s, and 32nd against all other wideouts. They do rank 5th against tight ends, which is tricky this week because I have a gut feeling one of the tight ends puts up a decent line. We know Atlanta also struggles against backs in the passing game, allowing 10.6 passing attempts and 77 yards per game. The problem is that we have Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones basically nonexistent in this offense right now. I am much more fixated on the passing game with Jameis Winston. We saw Winston a little bit in the Bears game, but he is now back starting for Tampa Bay. We have seen Atlanta shreded through the air, allowing three 30+ fantasy point games in five weeks. They were able to stop Nick Foles, but Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Andy Dalton all surpassed 30 fantasy points. Ben Roethlisberger had 26 fantasy points, which is still up there. The volume has been there for most quarterbacks as well, with Newton, Brees, and Dalton all surpassing 40 passing attempts. Atlanta failing to score last week limited Big Ben in volume, but he still had 250 yards and three touchdowns. Winston is a steal across the industry.
With the amount of value this week, you can play guys like Julio Jones and Mike Evans in the same lineup. Looking at opposing WR1s over the last few weeks, Michael Thomas posted a 10-129-0 line, while A.J. Green posted 4-78-1, and Antonio Brown 6-101-2. Huge numbers for WR1s, but also WR2s. Tyler Boyd hit over 100 yards, while names like D.J. Moore, John Ross, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Devin Funchess have all closed out big games. This gives me confidence for DeSean Jackson as well, who has had 100 yards in three of his first four games. Evans has scored in three of the four games, and has also surpassed 100 yards in two of the four. His targets sit at 41 through four weeks, while Jackson is at 22. Jackson will need those big plays to hit, with longs of 48, 17, 75, and 58 to really surpass value.
Note: Some other popular stacks will be Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. All have been written about often this season, so they will sit in the note section for the meantime. Atlanta is the best of the three, and Ryan, Coleman, Jones, Sanu, and Ridley are all attractive options in what should be a shootout. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have the usual candidates with both backs like James Conner and Joe Mixon. You also have the wideouts like Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Denver Broncos - Implied Total 22.25
Denver is interesting this week because the defense has not been playing up to par, nor has the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed eight touchdowns to wide receivers over the last three weeks. With the Rams consistently putting up 30+ points, and their total is sitting near the same, it puts a focus on the opposing offenses to keep up. The Rams are allowing 25.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in the last three weeks. While Case Keenum has been not been a very good real life quarterback, he has flashed some upside this season for fantasy. Keenum is 9th in passing attempts this season, and is middle of the road in aDOT, which is down for quite a bit of quarterbacks this season. The more attractive part of this stack is definitely the wideouts. They offer up some value on all three sites, and are in sneaky good spots.
Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are two of my favorite contrarian wideouts this week. Both are top 25 in overall targets among wide receivers, with Sanders sitting at 46, and Thomas at 40. Sanders has a better completion rate at 74% to Thomas' 65%. I am buying into the recent struggles of the Rams secondary, and expect Denver to put some points up. While they may not keep this game close, the passing production should easily be enough for them to put up plenty of fantasy points. This passing game is funneled to these wideouts, and occasionally Courtland Sutton. The Broncos are a large field tournament stack, and also allow you to get some other exposure to higher priced and maybe chalkier options.
Minnesota Vikings - Implied Total 26.75
Minnesota has a sneaky high total this week, and those teams mentioned above and within the notes are going to garnish a lot of the ownership. Minnesota's rushing attack is an easy stay away for me, which puts the focus on Kirk Cousins and the passing game. Cousins has posted some monster games this season, but has also had some games where the yardage was there, and the touchdowns lacked. The Arizona pass defense is not that bad, ranking 12th in DVOA against the pass and are holding opposing quarterbacks to under 20 fantasy points per game. When you look into it more, they held Russell Wilson and Mitch Trubisky to under 12 fantasy points, while allowing Goff, Smith, and Beathard to over 20 fantasy points. Beathard lit them up for 349 yards, and three total touchdowns. Cousins is second in completions this season, and is sixth overall in fantasy points among quarterbacks.
The Vikings have two premier wide receivers, and Cousins has definitely elevated their game. Adam Thielen has been unreal to start the season, with over 100 yards in each game and three touchdowns. His 47 receptions adds to his DK potential, but even on FD he is a strong play. Thielen leads the league in targets (67) and has completed 72% of them. You do not have to go down too far to find Stefon Diggs with 55 targets, which is seventh among WRs. The big question here is going to be who sees Patrick Peterson? That will likely be Diggs, as Thielen runs over 60% of his routes from the slot, and Peterson does not travel to the slot. With that being said Diggs is a deeper tournament play because of him seeing Peterson at times. Kyle Rudolph is an interesting play on a weak tight end week. Antoine Bethea has allowed 0.51 fantasy points per route run, and 1.95 yards per route covered. That is bottom five among safeties. The Cardinals rank 23rd in DVOA against tight ends this season.