NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it, and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1 in that order stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two man stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate, or questions/comments about the article.
Baltimore Ravens - Implied Total 26.25
Baltimore is in a sneaky good spot this week, especially if the Saints can keep that offense going on the road and also outdoors. The Saints are on opposite ends of the spectrum for their pass defense and run defense. They rank 1st in DVOA against the run, and 30th against the pass. The Saints have allowed 28.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is the 5th most. They are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. The Saints rank 32nd in DVOA against WR1s and WR2s. WR2s are averaging 105 yards per game, while WR1s are averaging 86 yards per game. Michael Crabtree and John Brown stand out in this spot to stack with Joe Flacco. Crabtree has seen six red zone targets, while Brown has seen five. Both lead the team the targets, as Crabtree sits with 55 and Brown is at 49. Flacco ranks 11th in aDOT this season, and is second in attempts. John Brown is first in aDOT (22.3) on the year, and while the efficiency isn't all that great, his upside is so high because of the style of plays Brown dials up. Both Brown and Crabtree are within top 30 of fantasy production this season.
I don't have much interest in the running backs here, with the Saints allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backs. This is a fairly good value stack to put some higher end options around. The Crabtree and Brown combo are very interesting this week. Brown will lineup against Ken Crawley, who has allowed 0.53 fantasy points per route run and an 82% catch rate. Marshon Lattimore had a strong rookie season, but has allowed 0.41 fantasy points per route, and 2.18 yards per route covered. Both are below average in PFF rankings among corners.
Notes: Going with some stacks off the wall this week, that won't find their way in a lot. So looking at the teams missing out, wrote about the Bucs last week, but they are back in play this week. Winston, Evans, Jackson, Godwin, TEs, are all in play there and make for a game stack with Cleveland. You also have some contrarian stacks with Chicago and Indianapolis.
Cleveland Browns - Implied Total 23.5
On the other side of this Bucs-Browns game, Cleveland is in a really good spot. The Bucs defense continues allow huge production, and the Browns are coming off a tough few matchups. This is a great rebound game for the passing game, and even the running backs. When looking at the passing game, there are three main guys, and then the potential for Duke Johnson to get involved. The Johnson signing day one tilted me because I knew it was going to come to this, where we are begging the Browns to get him involved because he is well, very good. We have seen Carlos Hyde take a heavier workload, and Nick Chubb is starting to sneak in there more and more. Now why Johnson was successful last week was because of the lack of receiver options Cleveland had to put out there, they were also down by 100 which helped as well. Johnson caught four balls for 73 yards, and also rushed for 36 yards on two carries. Johnson is definitely a DK player with the PPR scoring, but not an immediate play within this stack. Needless to say I don't have a ton of interest in the backs again within this stack.
Baker Mayfield might be somewhat popular this week because of the glaring matchup he has. He is also has the fourth best aDOT (10.2), and over the last three weeks he has 130 passing attempts. The Bucs have allowed 32.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, with 16 total touchdowns allowed. It is also no surprise to see them 32nd in DVOA against the pass. Some of the targets to look at will be Jarvis Landry who has yet to really break out. Landry is entering a stretch of matchups where he can thrive, and it starts against the Bucs. Landry will have one of the best WR/CB matchups of the week. M.J. Stewart has allowed 0.67 F/R and 2.77 Y/RC. Antonio Calloway is worth a look after a horrendous Week 6 where he had nine yards on seven targets. Brent Grimes has held some name value of a corner, but is allowing 0.43 F/R. You could also guess that Tampa Bay is being gashed by tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points per game to them this season. David Njoku is one of my favorite tight ends this week, and has seen 29 targets over the last three weeks.
Los Angeles Rams - Implied Total 31.25
Yes this one seems fairly obvious, but I really like it this week. Cooper Kupp has been ruled out for Week 7, which is a lot of production and targets up for grabs. You have Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks running up against Jimmie Ward and K'Waun Williams who have both been average at best. Cooks is the one I am after the most, especially after a couple of down weeks. The 49ers are allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, allowing two WR to go over 100 yards in last weeks game. They have allowed 4 total 100-yard games through six weeks, and eight total touchdowns. They are 18th in DVOA against WR1s and 24th in DVOA against WR2s. As you could expect, San Francisco is allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Every quarterback outside of Josh Rosen has surpassed 20 fantasy points against the 49ers. They have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for three touchdowns in a game, and two others with two. Jared Goff is a top ten fantasy quarterback right now, ranking 8th in points per drop back.
Todd Gurley does not need much explaining to play this week, or really any week. He is the season's current RB1 with 173 PPR points and 152 standard points. Gurley has puled up over 800 yards already and 11 touchdowns. He is on pace for a historic season, and get a 49ers team allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs.