The Conference Round is finally upon us, and we get three top four offenses in terms of points per game this season, then Pittsburgh three B's. It is a defensive nightmare for all four teams, and I really wish we didn't have to choose for DFS purposes. With an over/under of 60 in Atlanta, my general focus will be on that game. New England and Pittsburgh have their offenses, but both defenses should limit some potential. We will take a look at the top FanDuel GPP and Stacking lineups this week.
Optimal GPP & Stack Lineups
Take your pick from this game, with an over/under of 60 I am jumping all aboard this one. I mean looking at these lineups, you'd think it was a one game slate. Atlanta's defense has held their own of late, but will have a tough task against the Packers. They allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, with an 11.5% DVOA. Atlanta's high scoring offense will keep Rodgers gunning.
We saw this on DraftKings as well, but the Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman pairings are split. Coleman is in the stack, while Freeman is just in the natural GPP lineup. Green Bay is middle of the road against the run, and against running backs in the passing game. Atlanta's dynamic offense keeps defenses off-balance, which means I am not worried about Freeman or Coleman getting shut down in the running game. I like both this week, but prefer the savings with Coleman. Ty Montgomery rushed 11 times against Dallas, and saw seven targets in the passing game. You will hear several times this week about Atlanta's struggles with pass-catching backs. They rank 26th, with a 16.7% DVOA, putting Montgomery in a good spot. However, it's hard to ask for two touchdowns again. I was surprised not to see Dion Lewis in the DraftKings optimal lineup, but he pops up here. He is more of a pass-catching threat, which puts him in play. Pittsburgh ranks 19th against opposing backs in the passing game, and as we saw last week, Lewis is a dual-threat. He did fumble a few times, which is a bit scary.
I will state again that my favorite wideout this week is Julio Jones, against a banged up Green Bay secondary that was just shredded by Dez Bryant. The Packers rank 28th against opposing WR1s, with a 12.1% DVOA. With a 32 team total, and an offense that's rolling, Jones should be a contender for the highest scoring receiver. Correlations in this game are key, and using guys like Randall Cobb in this one are fine. Jordy Nelson is likely out again, making Cobb a larger role receiver. Taylor Gabriel and Chris Hogan are both boom or bust receivers in terms of finding the end zone. Gabriel is a bit safer, and will be higher owned. Hogan is a lower owned GPP play, and one I am excited to take a few shares off.
Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett are the only two tight ends I am considering this week. I prefer Cook, given Nelson's out, and his role is much larger than Bennett's in the offense. Atlanta allows the sixth most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, while Pittsburgh rank 12th. Both are in a decent spot with high totals, it's just a matter of what fits the budget.
Matt Bryant involved in the highest scoring team total, and being at home is the top kicker for me. He has been under nine FanDuel points just twice this season. Stephen Gostkowski has seven double digit FD points in his last eight games. New England's defense is my favorite pick this week, even though I dislike all four.