NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
After a long 17 week process, we reach the Wild Card Round. The 4-game slate presents one game with very little fantasy production expected, alongside top defenses outside of Detroit and Green Bay. Ryan Tannehill and Tom Savage won't return for the Wild Card Round. Raiders-Texans has a 37 game total, which is seven points below the next fame, Seahawks-Lions. The highest team total on the board this week is Pittsburgh, at 28. There home numbers have been phenomenal, and will be the team we want some exposure to.
Cash & GPP Projections
The optimizer is digging Russell Wilson this week in both cash and GPP lineups. You might have heard me say this a few times this week, but the Seattle Seahawks have been much better at home this season, scoring about two touchdowns more per game than on the road. Wilson and Doug Baldwin have both shown those splits in their fantasy production. They get a bottom five defense this week in the Lions, who will have to travel to Seattle. Detroit has a 34.8% DVOA against the pas, and have 78% of their touchdowns allowed through the air. Baldwin averages about eight targets per game, and gets a fantastic backup against Detroit's backup slot-corner.
The running backs here are simple, and this is a simple week for running back. Le'Veon Bell is by far your top play this week, and I mean among any position. Miami has allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing backs this season, on a 4.8 YPC. Bell's usage in the passing game is also an added bonus. Lamar Miller is back from injury, and in a good spot against Oakland. They allow a 4.5 YPC to opposing backs, and the game flow should bode well for Miller and the Houston defense pairing. Houston's defense is by far my favorite option this week, with Oakland missing their first two quarterbacks, and their starting left tackle.
Antonio Brown is used in the cash game lineup, and Odell Beckham Jr is used in the GPP. Personally both are playable in all formats, and I actually slightly prefer OBJ this week. Green Bay ranks 28th against WR1s, with a 12.1% DVOA. This banged up secondary is allowing the most FD points to opposing wideouts this season. OBJ should be a lock for 10+ targets this week, and New York should be trying to keep pace with a red hot Packers offense. Brown is certainly in play this week, and while he hasn't been needed in DFS in quite some time, Pittsburgh's big three are all worth playing this week.
Will Tye is used as a punt tight end, which I am cool with this week. Outside of really Jimmy Graham, I am not confident in anyone's floor over another, and Graham really hasn't been that great in the second half. It's okay to punt here this week. Anquan Boldin draws a solid matchup this week, and this is a game that is made for a physical Boldin. He leads the Lions in red zone targets, and below $5,000 is the top guy for salary relief.
Optimal GPP Stack
The only difference from this lineup and the cash game lineup is the addition of Jermaine Kearse over Boldin to complete the tree-man stack. Personally I prefer Paul Richardson, who has been involved a bit more since the Tyler Lockett injury. Detroit struggles against the pass, and while their defense has improved, I am looking for Seattle to roll this week. The good thing about Seattle's stack, is you are able to get Pittsburgh exposure still.
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