I realized the other day how completely awful grocery stores are for parents. I was there with my daughter, and we were about to go through the checkout and she said “Daddy, can I get a candy bar?" At that point it hit me, wow, grocery stores are amazing with product placement, and they have been for many years. When it comes to my little one, I have a huge soft spot for her, so 10 times out of 10 of I am going to get her some candy. While I was watching her, I saw myself at her age (6), and I did the same thing. You are overwhelmed by how many options there are and not sure which way to go.
Do you want the chocolate covered, fluffy nougat center the Three Musketeer provides, the satisfying, flaky, crisp, peanut butter flavored center, covered in milk chocolate the Butterfinger offers or the always underrated cone-like shaped chocolate with caramel center that are the Rolos.
The choices are truly endless, and that brings us to this week. This week's theme is candy bars, and I am going to pair them with my favorite DFS plays for the week.
Like it – “Milky Way" – (If 3 Musketeers and Carmello had a baby, this would be the result. It's just a mix of the nougat and the caramel to go with the chocolate, but it's SOOOOOOOOO good)
Latavius Murray vs. San Diego Chargers - $6,100 (DraftKings) - $7,100 (FanDuel)
This matchup gives me the same feelings as biting into a Milky Way, it's so tasty. The Chargers have given up a 100+ yards on the ground in five straight games. Murray has only had one “huge" game this year; I am fully expecting him to make this number two.
Vegas has this game's o/u at 47 points, and honestly, I think this matchup eclipses that easily. In my opinion, this game should easily finish as one of the highest scoring games of the weekend.
The running back position is kind of muddy this weekend, and Murray is one of a few sure bets for me. I like his price, and he has the upside that you want for a guy in his price range.
Antonio Gates vs. Oakland Raiders - $5,000 (DraftKings) - $5,800 (FanDuel)
The Oakland Raiders have an historic history of being bad against the tight end position (minus the Broncos two weeks ago, thanks Peyton). Dating back to last season, the Raiders have given up at least one touchdown to opposing tight ends in seven out of the last eight games.
Gates is by far the best tight end they have faced this year, and he's probably the best tight end they'll face all season. Since coming back from suspension, he has seen 27 targets, catching 18 of them for 187 yards and two touchdowns.
I am not a big fan of Barnidge's matchup this week, and with Gronk a full $2,300 more than Gates, this matchup is too sweet not to take advantage.
Love it – “Peanut M&M's" – (I always opt for King Size when I get a bag of these, and they are always gone in a matter of seconds. I think they're really clutch, because they are definitely less of a mess than other options)
Carson Palmer vs. Baltimore Ravens - $6,700 (DraftKings) – $8,200 (FanDuel)
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Baltimore Ravens - $7,400 (DraftKings) - $7,800 (FanDuel)
This is easily my favorite stack of the week. The quarterback position has been one this year where you don't have to pay up for production, but this week I don't mind ponying up the money for Palmer. If you take a look at his last four home games against non-division opponents, he is averaging 297 yards and two touchdowns and has thrown zero interceptions in those games.
Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick have thrown for 797 yards and four touchdowns over the last two games the Ravens have played. This Ravens defense is not the Ravens defense of old, and Palmer will have no problem exposing this terrible pass defense.
John Brown could be a cheaper option to stack with Palmer, but I really like Fitzgerald's consistency compared to Brown. Two of Brown's biggest games this year came when the Cardinals were playing from behind.
Fitzgerald has put to rest any “he is over the hill" talk and has been on fire this season. He is tied for the league lead with six touchdown receptions and will have no problem adding to his total in the bright lights of Monday Football this week.
Gotta Have it – “Reese's Peanut Butter Cup" – (Reese's is the king of every candy bar; the amazing peanut butter center to mix with the chocolate is phenomenal. BONUS: The holiday Reese's cups are even that much better)
Eric Decker vs. New England Patriots - $5,300 (DraftKings) - $6,200 (FanDuel)
Decker has played in four games this year and has scored a touchdown in each of them. In two games against the Patriots last season, Decker was a non-factor but this is not the same Patriots secondary with Revis and Browner gone.
A big reason Decker is getting better looks this year is his counterpart Brandon Marshall, who himself could be a very nice play this week, but I like Decker a little more based on Belichicks ability to take out an opposing team's best weapon. Belichick likes to focus on one guy on the offensive side of the ball and take him completely out, which I anticipate being Marshall this week.
This shows in the stats book as opposing wide receivers that aren't number-ones have scored in three of the past four games against the Patriots.
He is the 20th (33rd on FanDuel) most expensive wider receiver which will provide some fantastic value this week with the favorable matchup.
Devonta Freeman vs. Tennessee Titans - $7,900 (DraftKings) - $8,700 (FanDuel)
The daily fantasy world is officially unable to get Freeman for a mid-tier running back price; he is priced within the top two on both sites. He's not getting it done just running the ball, as he has four straight games with five or more catches and 50+ yards in three of those four games. The other stat that I really like for Freeman is that he has 13 carries inside the 10-yard line which is tied for the league lead.
Let's talk a little about the Titans run defense. They are currently giving up ninth fewest fantasy points to running backs, but there are some real holes in that.
Week 1: Winston threw a pick-six and the score was 35-7 at half, so they abandoned the run.
Week 2: Crowell/Johnson combination ran for a combined 113 yards and a touchdown.
Week 3: Frank Gore had his best game of the season when he ran for 86 yards (6.1 YPC) and two touchdowns.
Week 4: Scout team running back Ricky Valero ran for 278 yards and four touchdowns during their bye week.
Week 5: With McCoy/Williams hurt, a combination of guys named Boom/Boobie ran for only 52 yards.
Week 6: This past week, Lamar Miller looked like a completely different running back than he had all year when he rushed for 113 yards on 19 carries and scored a touchdown.
Basically, what I am trying to say is, they are really not that good and STATS can lie. You finally have to pay for the man, but he is worth the price this week.