New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (Thursday, 8:30 p.m.)
Vegas O/U: 42 pts, Jets Total: 22.5 pts, Bills Total: 19.5 pts
The Jet's coverage unit has been something close to a must-avoid for fantasy purposes in 2015. By many measures, Gang Green was neck and neck with Denver in limiting opposing passing attacks. Thanks at least in part to injuries, that has changed.
Opposing signal callers have topped 330 yards in three straight games against New York, with Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles combining for 79 fantasy points over the stretch. Passers have averaged 12.5 yards per completion against the Jets over the past three weeks – the fifth highest mark in the NFL over that span.
Tyrod Taylor once again proved a nice cash game quarterback last week, despite throwing just 12 passes against Miami. He tacked on another 4.4 points on the ground, the equivalent of more than a passing touchdown. The Bills' Vegas total is less than inspiring, but Taylor is still a reasonable cash contest option. I don't see a reason to deploy him in GPPs though. Buffalo's goal is clearly to score the absolute minimal amount of points to win.
I'm not sure Buffalo's offense has much more appeal this week outside of Tygod. Sammy Watkins is reportedly limping through practices, so I hesitate to trust him in any capacity on a short week. New York is really solid against tight ends, making Charles Clay nothing but a borderline option, and certainly not in tournaments.
LeSean McCoy says he's “fine," but his status for Thursday remains very much undecided, per beat reporters. That would give Karlos Williams – whose DFS price tag has plummeted – some cash game appeal in this one. The big back is the second most efficient runner on a per carry basis, just behind David Johnson. The Jets' run defense has come unraveled a bit, allowing 4.4 yards per tote over the three weeks after shutting down opposing runners in September and October. Still, Williams won't need much to prove a worthwhile DFS play. He's priced as RB23 on FanDuel and RB31 on DraftKings.
Ryan Fitzpatrick's matchup this week might look appealing on paper. Consider, however, that Buffalo is the seventh stingiest team against quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of schedule and Fitz looks a tad less appealing. Ryan Tannehill eclipsed 300 yards against the Bills and barely cracked 10 fantasy points. While the presence of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker boosts Fitzpatrick's floor, I think there are at least a few superior cash games options at a similar Week 10 price.
Only six teams have allowed fewer rushing yards than Buffalo in 2015. The team's secondary is occasionally terrible, but its front seven is legit. Chris Ivory has been terribly ineffective of late. His past three YPC marks: 1.1, 1.1, 2.4. That's abysmal. Probably there's something wrong with the oft-injured Ivory. Whatever it is, I'm wary of the Jets' back. Ivory is priced at RB9 on DraftKings – way too rich for my blood.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Vegas O/U: 48 pts, Ravens Total: 27 pts, Jaguars Total: 21 pts
You should be sure to stock up on players from this matchup in your Week 10 GPPs. There are juicy stacks everywhere, including correlation stacks that could pay off big time if (when) this game goes over its Vegas projection.
I'm not sure how Jacksonville is projected for just 21 points here. The Ravens can't stop local flag football teams through the air and the Jags have poured on aerial yards all season. Baltimore is allowing 45 adjusted fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Allen Hurns struggling with a foot injury, Allen Robinson could absorb a truckload of targets in this one. ARob, stranded on Revis Island last week, managed 121 yards on six grabs. He's recorded six or more catches in five of the past seven games.
Robinson has tormented lesser secondaries this year. I'll have plenty of exposure in cash and tournament contests. I'm sure I won't be alone. ARob has the sixth best WR-CB matchup of Week 10, per Pro Football Focus' matchup chart.
Blake Bortles, fantasy's eighth highest scoring quarterback and one of the game's least efficient producers, is a plug-and-play cash game guy against Baltimore. Only Mike Vick has failed to exceed 20 fantasy points against the Ravens over the past seven weeks. Three signal callers have scored more than 25 against Baltimore during that span. Only four quarterbacks are dropping back to pass more often than Bortles. His floor is tremendous here.
Justin Forsett goes against a Jaguars defense that allows 3.2 yards per carry (and 2.7 YPC over their past three games). That's ugly. Here's what's not ugly: the Jags are allowing 6.2 running back receptions per game, and Forsett is seeing 3.9 targets per contest. When Marc Trestman's offense is clicking, Forsett sees action via the pass. Forsett, priced at RB10 on FanDuel, could have a top-5 day even if he's held in check on the ground.
Kamar Aiken is the presumed Steve Smith replacement, however much that makes a Ravens fan throw up in her mouth a little bit. Thirty-seven receivers are priced ahead of Aiken on DraftKings, and many of those guys won't see the 8-10 targets Aiken is in line for against Jacksonville's exploitable secondary. Smith, after all, ate up 23 percent of the team's total targets, along with 31 percent of its receiving yards.
I like the idea of plopping Aiken into lineups alongside Robinson, as both could go off in this matchup. Aiken caught four passes for 78 yards when Smith missed Baltimore's Week 5 game. He saw a hearty six targets against the Chargers after Smith left the game with what appears to be a career-ending injury. I'm bullish on the Ravens' default No. 1 receiver.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Vegas O/U: 47.5 pts, Packers Total: 29.25 pts, Lions Total: 17.75 pts
Green Bay's collective frustration might be quelled this week in a game against one of the NFL's softest defenses. Only New England is projected by Vegas to score more points in Week 10. Get Packers into your lineups.
Randall Cobb, as mentioned last week in this space, made quick work on Carolina's suspect slot receiver coverage in Week 9. He gets another mouth-watering matchup this week against Quandre Diggs, who covers opposing slot guys. Cobb is WR15 on DraftKings with very clear top-10 potential against a Detroit secondary that has allowed the fifth most fantasy production to receivers, when adjusted for strength of schedule.
James Jones' matchup isn't nearly as good, but his continued red zone involvement and the Packers' ridiculous point projection could mean a big day for the 27th most expensive wideout on DraftKings. Jones could make for a nice tournament stack with Rodgers as a couple quiet weeks will leave Jones' ownership in the low single digits on all DFS sites.
If I'm paying up for a cash game quarterback, it's going to be Rodgers. To speak nothing of his upside here, Rodgers has a stupid-high floor. Detroit is allowing a league-worst 73.2 percent completion rate to opposing passers. Rodgers is completing 70.4 percent of his aimed throws. Watch out.
Eddie Lacy, if he plays against Detroit, is not playable. James Starks, if Lacy is declared out, becomes a spectacular cap-relieving cash game running back that has allowed 130.5 yards and seven touchdowns to running backs over the past four weeks. Starks saw six targets in Lacy's place last week, catching all six for 71 yards and a score.
Calvin Johnson is slated to go up against cornerback Sam Shields in this one. It's not a particularly appealing matchup, but volume could trump matchup here. This game shapes up to be one in which the Lions are chasing for at least a full half, meaning Matthew Stafford will be forced to sling it. I'm not chasing Stafford's volume, but 40-45 drop backs could mean a dozen looks for Megatron.
Johnson has seen more than 20 percent of the Lions' targets thrice this season. One factor working in his favor: Green Bay allows the second most yards per completion, so they've proven susceptible to big plays downfield. That yards per completion has jumped to a lofty 14.2 since Week 7.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m.)
Vegas O/U: 48 pts, Eagles Total: 27.5 pts, Dolphins Total: 20.5 pts
Miami's defense is once again a sieve. After their domination of the Titans and Texans of the CFL South, the Dolphins have been gouged 855 total yards over the past two contests. That's a lot.
Philadelphia finally seems committed to getting DeMarco Murray downhill with the pigskin in his hands – the successful formula the Cowboys used with Murray in 2014. Murray averages 4.7 yards per tote when running off tackle, 4.5 YPC when running it up the middle, and 2.04 YPC when running to the edge. Murray has collected 120.3 total yards per game over this past three to go along with two scores. Miami, giving up the second most adjusted fantasy points per game to runners, could be eaten alive by the Eagles' ground attack. Murray is a safe play, for once.
You're not putting Ryan Mathews in lineups alongside Murray, but I think you can plug him into GPPs this week. Philly's strength matches with the Dolphins' weakness here. Every opponent with a legit rushing attack has annihilated Miami via the run. Mathews could certainly see 10 touches in an unqualified A+ matchup. I'd avoid him in cash games because his floor remains scary.
I'm not all that interested in Sam Bradford here. Without his miraculous overtime touchdown against Dallas, Bradford would've posted a horrid stat line. His DFS price point doesn't offer that much cap room and Miami isn't horrible against the pass. They are seventh in completion rate allowed to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are fourth worst in yards per completion allowed to opponents, but the Eagles' offense isn't predicated on downfield shots. And Bradford isn't good with the long ball. Or any ball, really.
I like the Eagles defense here. Miami allows 9.6 adjusted fantasy points to defenses, as Ryan Tannehill and company have given up 1.5 turnovers per game. Miami's offense is a borderline catastrophe when they're one dimensional. I think there's a good chance we could see that once again in Week 10.
Lamar Miller is fast becoming immune to game script – a welcomed development for the explosive runner who was sometimes phased out of games under the former Dolphins regime. Miller has seen 4.5 targets per contest since the Dolphins made their coaching change. He's caught 17 of 18 targets over four games, notching 10 yards per reception. It gives me some confidence that he can be worth the Week 10 investment even if the Dolphins fall behind.
Miller is fantasy's No. 1 back since the team promoted Dan Campbell to head coach.