Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Total: 42
Vikings: 20.5
Lions: 22.5
Las Vegas favors the Lions, but we are not so sure. The Vikings looked revived Sunday and they still have one of the better defenses in football.
The status of Stefon Diggs (knee) leaves their offense in doubt, though. He did not practice Wednesday and if he is inactive, look to values in TE Kyle Rudolph (three-game TD streak vs. Detroit) and WR Adam Thielen, who should be high-volume targets. Sam Bradford can be good for 250-2, which might be enough to play him at his price in Thursday-only GPPs.
In the run game, McKinnon does the damage between the 20s and Matt Asiata punches it in on the goal line. We see the TDs harder to come by, so McKinnon is the better of the two plays, especially if he gets involved in the short passing game. The Lions have allowed the fewest TDs to fantasy RBs (three), including a league-low one rush TD (everyone else has allowed three or more).
The Lions plays are a bit harder to surmise, because of the quality of the Vikings defense in this important divisional game. Matt Stafford might have to be avoided at his price, which make all of the Lions downfield targets difficult to trust, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin.
We do like the price and recent consistency of Eric Ebron, though. The Vikings are 11th worst against fantasy TEs, too, allowing TDs in each of the past two games since Ebron went 7-92 in the previous meeting.
The Lions run game is not much to write home about, but if Theo Riddick (ankle) starts, we should assume he will do damage against the Vikes D as a receiver out of the backfield. He is a decent contrarian play, if you're not going with one of the elite backs in the two latter games.
Defensively, we favor the Vikings among all of the six Thanksgiving Day defenses, because of their big-play ability and playmakers who can change the course of the game.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 52
Redskins: 22.5
Cowboys: 29.5
This is easily the best DFS game of the day, if not the entire week. Both defenses have given up some numbers and both offenses have racked up huge totals at times, too. This is also a very important game for postseason rights and positioning. So, yeah, it's a humdinger.
Rob Kelley is just too important to the Redskins attack now to be priced like a backup running back. His huge performance against a good Green Bay Packers run defense should give you confidence in him pounding away at the Cowboys' equally good run defense. The Cowboys are No. 3 against the run and No. 5 against fantasy RBs, but Kelley's price and importance are just too great to ignore.
If anyone is scared off him, that just makes him a contrarian play. He should combine for at least 80 yards and a TD in this potential shootout.
If the Redskins run game works, you should expect the pass game to be effective, too. TE Jordan Reed and WRs Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson (in that order) are all worthy of their prices. Reed went 5-70 in the past meeting and with this game expected to be so wide open, you should consider those baseline numbers.
Ezekiel Elliott is the obvious play, even if he had a heavy workload going into this short week. The Redskins run defense is 11th against the run and fantasy RBs. It won't matter for Elliott, whose price is strangely not the top of the board.
In the passing game, you should be wary of WR Dez Bryant against CB Josh Norman. The Redskins defense has steadily improved against the pass and fantasy WRs this season, most of that progress coming after Norman was moved to lock-down the opponent's No. 1 target. Bryant can overcome it for a 5-60-1 effort, though.
If you fade Bryant, you will want to jump on one of Dak Prescott's other targets, starting with TE Jason Witten and potentially extending to WR Cole Beasley. Someone is going to get targeted if they cannot get the ball to Bryant against Norman. Taking a flier on a Cowboys also ran, perhaps even Terrance Williams, might be a solid contrarian move that can propel you in GPPs.
We would avoid both defenses in this one, and potentially toss in either kicker in FanDuel lineups.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 47.5
Steelers: 27.25
Colts: 20.25
This was a lot more intriguing for DFS plays before Andrew Luck (concussion) was ruled out. Now, we are left with the uncertainty of backup QB Scott Tolzien working under center for the Colts, potentially changing the entire pace of a game that might have been considered a shootout between Ben Roethlisberger and Luck.
The Steelers defense becomes a viable play, particularly in Thanksgiving Day DFS contests, facing the backup QB. That unit is coming off a great performance against the Cleveland Browns and draws another shaky offense on the road – at a very, very reduced price.
Le'Veon Bell's price is not reduced, but if you're playing Thanksgiving Day contests, his premium should be afforded. The Colts are bottom 10 against the run and have allowed a fantasy-high five TD receptions to backs. Bell is going to be heavily involved in the Steelers' attack no matter the pace of the game – just like he was at Cleveland. Start all lineups with him, and figure out of to slot the rest.
You might have been wary on playing WR Antonio Brown against CB Vontae Davis (ankle), but the cover man is less than 100 percent – if he even plays. Big Ben, Bell and Brown are about as sure-thing plays in a favorable matchup as DFS gives us.
If you cannot afford Bell and Brown, perhaps stack Eli Rogers with Bell. Rogers is a decent price, likely won't have to contend with Davis and won't be impacted by Darrius Heyward-Bey (out–foot) or Sammie Coates (very limited usage with Rogers is active).
For the Colts, you have to figure the offense being heavy in the hands of Frank Gore. He has scored four TDs in the past four games and is facing the Steelers defense that has allowed the fourth-most points to fantasy RBs to date.
Otherwise, it is a gamble to play Tolzien at his bargain price. You might want a lineup with him in it, though, not only because of his price, but the possibility the Steelers get hot offensively against the so-so Colts defense and make for some garbage time.
T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and TE Jack Doyle are all priced with the notion Luck is playing. You should probably fade them, too – unless you're going mad-scientist contrarian here.
We are far more on the side of this game playing below the number, as the Colts slow things down and simplify the offense without Luck, as they did a year ago.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Total: 42
Titans: 23.5
Bears: 18.5
You might think this would be a great time for the Titans' primary DFS options Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray to go off, but the Bears have quietly been a fairly tough defense to do that against. The Bears are fourth best against fantasy RBs, in the top half against QBs and top 10 against TEs.
Their secondary has been the Bears' weakest link, ranking third worst against WRs. Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe are hot and Kendall Wright is still affordably priced.
Mariota looks like a 250-2 candidate, while Murray might be 80-1. Matthews or TE Delaine Walker might be the best plays on the board here, although the Titans defense might become a premium play at their price if Matt Barkley is forced to start for Jay Cutler (shoulder). Dick LeBeau's blitzing defense might be getting exposure even against Cutler.
For the Bears, there is not much to like, especially with the QB uncertainty. The RBs tend to carry the offense, but the fact Jeremy Langford vultured a TE from Jordan Howard kind of mitigates the plays of either. They are a lot better when they're not sharing the load.
The wideouts are equally a mess with WR Alshon Jeffery suspended and TE Zach Miller now out for the season. If you're looking for value on volume, Cameron Meredith has to be the play at his price. The Titans are in the bottom 10 against fantasy WRs and Meredith should be good for 10 targets, 80 yards and potentially a TD.
This will be a game with a slow, low-scoring pace – something the Titans haven't played of late – so fade many of the options in this game, save for the bargain wideouts.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Total: 45
Jags: 19
Bills: 26
The Bills are a heavy favorite, something we're unaccustomed to seeing, so we have to find some plays here. We suppose the Bills defense is going to be a popular play against the disappointing Jags offense that is seventh worst against opposing D/STs.
Blake Bortles remains a huge bargain, but you cannot expect anything more than 250-2 against a still-dangerous Bills defense that has one of the most underrated secondaries in football. It makes Allen Robinson a tough play, Marqise Lee one best avoided and Allen Hurns a huge darkhorse play. If you're punting your last WR spot, Hurns isn't a bad shot in the dark, though.
The Jags run game has been one to avoid, but if T.J. Yeldon (ankle) is ruled out, you might consider the volume and value of Chris Ivory against a Bills defense that has given up 10 rushing TDs in 10 games. Ivory figures to be involved either way in a defensive, ground-and-pound game.
The Bills' side begins and ends with LeSean McCoy. With some many premium backs already off the board in the Thanksgiving Day games, you should consider McCoy a high-exposure play in cash games. He'll get his 100-plus yards and multiple TDs.
The potential return of Sammy Watkins (ankle) is exciting, but it is also still uncertain. Until he proves healthy and productive, you should fade everything in the Bills' banged-up passing game, including Tyrod Taylor against a Jags defense that is quietly sixth best against fantasy QBs and top 10 against fantasy WRs.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 40.5
Bengals: 18.25
Ravens: 22.25
The Bengals look like a bad bunch of plays without A.J. Green (hamstring) and Giovani Bernard (knee) against the league's No. 2-ranked defense, but fantasy's reality is the losses put huge volume on some well-priced pieces.
Jeremy Hill should get a second-high in touches in both the run and passing game, while TE Tyler Eifert becomes the best downfield target. Hill is facing the No. 1 run defense and No. 2 team in fantasy against RBs, but 80-1 is enough production to carry his price in DFS. Also, Eifert is facing the No. 2 team in fantasy vs. TEs, but his volume and offensive importance are just too great to ignore.
Downfield for QB Andy Dalton – ignore him – you can find some value with Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell. The likelihood this game plays to its low number, if not lower, make either marginal punt options.
The Bengals defense is fifth worst against the run, but Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon are now apparently in a timeshare situation. The latter has become increasingly worthy of volume, but we would tend to fade both in a game that doesn't project to be DFS-point friendly.
In the passing game, Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta are always safe for volume, but Joe Flacco doesn't light up any defenses, especially one that has been seventh-best against fantasy WRs.
Justin Tucker and the Ravens D/ST look like safe bets, especially if you see this game as a field-goal battle as we do.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 50.5
Cardinals: 22.75
Falcons: 27.75
This matchup looks promising for points, especially if you're a pay-up guy on David Johnson this season. The Falcons are sixth worst against fantasy RBs and there is not a price Johnson would not look intriguing at. Load up, particularly with Ezekiel Elliott and Le'Veon Bell already out of play.
Carson Palmer also looks intriguing at his price against the Falcons defense that has been dead last against fantasy QBs. Palmer not only has Johnson to throw to, but TE Jermaine Gresham is emerging too at a bargain price. The Falcons have been suspect against everything, so throw everything on the Cards' side into the mix, including Larry Fitzgerald, J.J. Nelson and John Brown.
This should be a shootout, so fade the Cardinals defense despite the inviting price. It might be the NFL's No. 1-ranked unit, but they haven't been double-digit scorers in many weeks this season.
The Falcons side is a bit more difficult to discern, even in a shootout. The Cards are No. 3 against fantasy QBs, No. 5 against WRs and No. 1 against RBs. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are not favorably priced, but the Cards' ability to take away the run game might put heavy volume on them at least.
You likely should avoid the Falcons RBs. Not only are the Cards tough on them, but Devonta Freeman's volume will be impacted by the return of Tevin Coleman (hamstring). We would lean on the latter because of his receiving exploits if you're playing either, especially if this game gets loose like most every Falcons game this season.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Total: 44
Giants: 25.5
Browns: 18.5
Loading up against the Browns has been a pretty effective DFS strategy, so expect there to be high ownership numbers on many Giants. The Browns are bottom five against everything in fantasy: QBs (fourth worst), RBs (second worst), WR (eighth worst) and TEs (dead last).
The Giants are a pass-heavy offense, but the Browns' second-worst run defense will lead to a number of Rashad Jennings plays. Jennings is a candidate for 100 combined yards and a TD, but a bargain play of rookie Paul Perkins for 50 yards and TD might be the better way to go. The Browns have given up a fantasy-high 13 rush TDs to RBs.
Eli Manning-Odell Beckham-Giants D/ST is a solid cash-game stack, but TE Will Tye, WR Sterling Shepard and WR Victor Cruz might be the sleepers who move you up the board in GPPs. Even Robbie Gould should get exposure.
The Browns' side should provide some intrigue if you see the Giants offense scoring at will – although we should warn they tend to play down to their opponents. There can be garbage time for veteran QB Josh McCown, TE Gary Barnidge, WR Terrelle Pryor, WR Corey Coleman and passing-down RB Duke Johnson to prove to be sleeper plays. Johnson and Pryor are the favorites among those.
This will be a popular game for DFS plays despite a modest 44-point total on the Las Vegas board.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Total: 45.5
Rams: 19.25
Saints: 26.25
This represents a DFS Super Bowl for Todd Gurley. The Saints are middle of the pack against the run, but they give up points and are third-worst against fantasy RBs because of it. Gurley's price is a bit high for his season averages, but if you could cover up his season-long disappointments, this is a fair price for him in this matchup.
The rest of the Rams offense has to be faded, no matter the favorability of the matchup. We just cannot trust rookie QB Jared Goff enough to slot Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, Brian Quick or TE Lance Kendricks – no matter how favorable their prices are. We suppose, if you're playing any of them, consider Austin to bust a long one on the fast Superdome turf.
The Saints generally blow it out big at home, but the Rams defense has been able play some low-scoring games. Drew Brees still goes 300-3, so stack him with WR Brandin Cooks, who has five TDs in five home games. WR is the only position the Rams are not top 10 against.
RB Tim Hightower has taken over for RB Mark Ingram as the DFS play of choice, but Ingram (concussion) will play and cut into Hightower's potential. We don't see this game being a typical Saints track meet, and these two backs cut into each other, so base your Saints plays more on Brees-Cooks here.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Total: 44.5
49ers: 18.75
Dolphins: 25.75
Like we said above with the Browns, loading up on the 49ers has been a tried-and-true DFS strategy. The same goes for fading the 49ers, if there is any fading guys most are going to avoid anyway.
The best things the 49ers have going for them are RB Carlos Hyde and TE Vance McDonald. It should be reminded, despite the fewest TDs Miami's defense has allowed RBs, it is third worst against the run. That sets up a potential 100-yard and a TD performance for Hyde. And, if the streaking Dolphins score points at will like so many do on the 49ers, you should probably look at 5-50-1 for McDonald, too, who has been fairly steady since Colin Kaepernick took over at QB.
The best play here is Jay Ajayi, who has cooled off the past two games after a scorching stretch. Tally him up for a 150-2 performance against the worst run defense in football and the dead last team against fantasy RBs. This is Ajayi's team and this is a dream matchup. It you do not afford the premium of David Johnson, you have to slot Ajayi for this one.
If you want a longshot play, Damien Williams might even be able to break double digits.
The passing game shouldn't be needed as much, but with Jarvis Landry (shoulder) and Kenny Stills (calf) both on the injury report, you might like a play of DeVante Parker. He has emerged in his second season of late, scoring a clutch fourth-quarter TD last week.
Defensively, the Dolphins can harass the QB and score DFS points, but their price is a bit high for a team that hasn't fulfilled DFS expectations that often at home this season.
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
Total: 46.5
Chargers: 22.75
Texans: 23.75
This is an intriguing game, especially since it figures to stay competitive throughout. That should help push the number and DFS scoring even higher than expectations.
We love the RBs on both sides, especially Melvin Gordon because of his impact in both the running and passing game. The Texans are a tough pass defense that can take away the marginal Chargers' wideouts and force the ball into the hands of the TEs and Gordon. The DFS breakout is more than just a TD machine for the Chargers, he has also averaged close to 60 yards receiving per game in the past four.
The Texans were exposed downfield against Derek Carr on Monday night, but we are going to advise you fading Philip Rivers and his wideouts against the No. 3-ranked pass defense, the No. 4 team in fantasy against QBs and No. 3 against fantasy WRs. Even TE Antonio Gates and TE Hunter Henry are shaky options against the Texans, who are No. 4 against fantasy TEs.
The Texans' offense is equally in the hands of the RB. Lamar Miller is a solid play against the fifth-worst team in fantasy vs. RBs. He will pick up 100 combined yards and at least one TD (rush or receiving).
Because we like this game to be a bit more wide open, we are going to advise you to buy low on WR DeAndre Hopkins. He was robbed of a long TD on Monday night and faces a Chargers secondary that is sixth worst against the pass. Hopkins is due for a 120-2 performance, while TE C.J. Fiedorowicz is going to be popular at his price and a candidate for 6-50-1.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 45
Seahawks: 25.5
Bucs: 19.5
Streaking Russell Wilson tends to be less intriguing on the road, but it is tough not to like him against the Bucs defense that has been fifth worst against fantasy QBs and fourth worst against fantasy WRs. So, Wilson isn't the only Seahawk to like in this one.
Thomas Rawls has yet to go off and has the best opportunity to do so with C.J. Prosise (shoulder) out and all of the RB duties on Rawls. The Bucs are in the bottom 10 against fantasy RBs and Rawls should impact the short passing game with Prosise out.
Wilson, Doug Baldwin and TE Jimmy Graham are all in play, while Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse are even welcoming at their prices.
The Bucs are far less intriguing against the Seahawks' defense. Mike Evans ordinarily would be a strong play, but the fact the Seahawks can choose to take him away and force someone else to beat them makes us believe even his reduced price is not worth it.
We are going to fade all of the Bucs' offensive options, particularly since the Seahawks generally don't blow out opponents on the road (read: no true garbage-time numbers). The Seahawks defense, kicker and just about anything are the ways to go in this one.
Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders
Total: 49
Panthers: 23
Raiders: 26
Throw out the Panthers' defensive improvements of late – Luke Kuechly (concussion) is expected to be out – this game projects to be wide open and a DFS bonanza.
Cam Newton's price is extremely welcoming and his production tends to play to his opponent. The Panthers figure to struggle to contain the Raiders' red-hot offense, so expect Newton to rack up DFS numbers both in the pass and run games. The Raiders are ninth worst against fantasy QBs and they haven't played an elite fantasy QBs in weeks, if not months. Newton is one of the favorite DFS QB options on the board.
Newton's large projected production should benefit a number of options around him, particularly Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. The Raiders are ninth worst against fantasy RBs and eighth worst against fantasy TEs. It helps none of the Panthers' prices are unwieldy.
On the Raiders' side, you can play RB Latavius Murray despite the fact the Panthers are third best against fantasy RBs. That was with Kuechly making tackles. The Panthers were still seventh worst against the run with Kuechly in the lineup.
Downfield, Amari Cooper is hot and getting more action with Michael Crabtree (ankle) underperforming and less than 100 percent of late. If you truly believe this game to be a shootout, you might consider slotting Jalen Richard as a receiving RB, too, at his price.
You can like the red-hot Raiders to win this game, but the Panthers can score points to keep this game interesting throughout. Avoid the defenses and take just about anything you need out of this one.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Total: 46
Pats: 26.5
Jets: 19.5
If there anyone you wouldn't load up on Tom Brady against? A 300-3 from Brady is almost certain, especially if you trust the Jets' No. 4-ranked run defense to take away LeGarrette Blount.
It puts heavy volume on Brady, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and even Danny Amendola. That is even more magnified by the fact Rob Gronkowski (chest) and Martellus Bennett (ankle) both look like they might be on the wrong side of questionable. If one of those TEs are active and starting, you can load up on them, too.
We will fade all of the Pats RBs in this one. It isn't just the quality of the Jets run defense either. Blount might be good for a short TD, but he might also give up snaps to James White and Dion Lewis, too. Eventually Lewis might usurp feature-back duties. So watch this trio more than trust it in lineups.
The Jets don't have much going for them, but the fact the Pats should blow this one out should excite you to consider RB Matt Forte, WR Brandon Marshall and perhaps WR Quincy Enunwa. They should be busy in garbage time, no matter how little you or we think of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Total: 39.5
Chiefs: 18.25
Broncos: 21.25
Las Vegas' total hates this game as much as we should in DFS. Two limited passing games facing two strong defenses. Sounds like a number of reasons to avoid this game.
The best play might be Spencer Ware against the Broncos defense that is fourth worst against the run and seventh worst against fantasy RBs. A lot will be on his legs, because the Broncos defense won't be kind to the passing game.
The Broncos are No. 2 against the pass, No. 1 against fantasy QBs and WRs and top 10 against TEs. Fade everything outside of Ware for the Chiefs, including TE Travis Kelce.
The Broncos' side is equally RB heavy. The Chiefs are sixth worst against the run, making Devontae Booker the best of the limited Broncos plays. Demaryius Thomas will get his usually 6-60 numbers but there are too many WRs in his price range who play with a better QB and in a better matchup.
Fade the defenses on both sides as both teams play conservatively and protect the football, limiting sacks and turnovers. This game is squarely on the RBs, both on the field and in DFS.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 47.5
Packers: 21.75
Eagles: 25.75
If you have been riding Aaron Rodgers after Eddie Lacy (ankle) went down, you have to continue to do so here. The Eagles have an elite defense at home and figure to take away the Packers run game and force the game into Rodgers' hand.
Rodgers should get his 300-3, making Jordy Nelson a cash-game option, while WR Davante Adams and TE Jared Cook are intriguing fliers to take for GPPs. Again the Eagles are strong at home, but Rodgers is Rodgers and the Packers defense is so bad right now, you have to expect a shootout.
Arguably the best bargain of the week is WR Jordan Matthews against that rag-tag Packers secondary. They are second worst against fantasy WRs and bottom 10 against the pass and fantasy QBs.
Carson Wentz will be a popular sleeper for 300-3 and if you see that coming, you have to load up exposure on Matthews, TE Zach Ertz and perhaps WR Dorial Green-Beckham. We have long since given up on Darren Sproles, but if you're stacking Eagles against this awful Packers defense, you might consider a flier on Ryan Mathews for his potential to finish drives as a TD vulture via the run or pass.
We can look at this game a number of different ways – many of which see the Eagles in control – but we cannot imagine too many viable scenarios with Rodgers goes bust. This is going to be an exciting game for not only production but DFS value all over the board.
Read the rest of this article for FREE!
Login or Register to join the conversation.