Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Total: 45.5
Bears: 19.25
Packers: 26.25
There is one quarterback coming in with four consecutive 300-yard passing games. There is another quarterback yet to throw for 300, and having just one game over 260 thus far. Of course, the first QB is Brian Hoyer and the second is Aaron Rodgers.
Who'da thunk that?
Both starting running backs (Jeremy Langford and Eddie Lacy) are out several weeks with ankle injuries, leaving Jordan Howard and recently acquired Knile Davis (assuming he starts) as value plays. Howard, though, will be facing an elite run defense that is hungry to salvage some lost pride this past Sunday against Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys. Davis would be a big-time bargain if the news leading up to game time lists him as the starter.
Despite the thrashing delivered by Elliott, the Packers are still No. 1 against fantasy RBs, allowing the fewest TDs to the position (just one) to date. It should preclude you from going with Howard and lead you to considering plays of Hoyer, Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller.
The Packers, very thin on the corner with Sam Shields (concussion) going on IR, have given up the most fantasy points per game to WRs, including seven TDs in the past three games. The Packers have also given up the seventh-most points to fantasy TEs, leading to the Miller play.
The Bears are a top 10 pass defense this season, so avoid the disappointing Rodgers at his price. You can consider WR Jordy Nelson a cash-game play for his consistent red-zone production – even if he's not a threat for 100-yards. Also, with the limitations of the running game without Lacy, expect Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery to be volume-based plays in PPR formats. Both those guys could get time as an RB, which really is just a fancy way to get them targets in the short passing game.
Outside of those pieces outlined above, K Mason Crosby and the bargain of the Packers D/ST are stacking options if you're going all-in for a Packers in-division rout at home. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most points to fantasy Ks (the third-most FGs) to date, and Crosby has been resurgent at a reduced cost on FanDuel.
The rest of the Week 7 Slate Breakdown will be posted periodically in the 24 hours.
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (in London)
Total: 43.5
Giants: 23.25
Rams: 20.25
This seems to be a matchup benefitting Eli Manning, resurgent Odell Beckham and the NFL's No. 3-ranked passing offense. The Rams gave up four TD passes to Matthew Stafford and allowed Jameis Winston to go 405-3 in Week 5, but we just cannot hold complete confidence in Manning's offense yet.
Sure, the Giants rack up passing yards as Beckham breaks long TDs on 4th-and-1, but most of their passing success is a function of their failed running game and banged-up RB rotation. Also, game flow tends to dictate their aggressiveness. In a supposed favorable matchup against the Saints in Week 2, the Giants' DFS plays went bust. Many are going to stack Manning-Beckham if they're playing slates with the Giants-Rams game, it might be best to fade them in those contests to be contrarian.
Rashad Jennings' price is far more favorable as a play, because he should get volume in London. Games there on the Wembley grass tend to be far less the track meet Manning-Beckham stackers will hope for. Jennings can get 80 yards and a TD at a price reduced because of a thumb injury. Thumps are not connected to the legs that carry RBs.
For the Rams, the modest Todd Gurley production plays into our hands. He has yet to perform like the elite back he is; yet, in what should be a closely contested game, he will be doing the bulk of the damage against the Giants defense – whether it's yards, receptions or TDs.
Kenny Britt is hot for Case Keenum and DFS, but the likelihood underrated CB Janoris Jenkins lines up against him make WR Tavon Austin and WR Brian Quick the better values in this game – especially if you ignore the warning off Manning-Beckham and somehow see this game being the shootout it was last week on Detroit's turf.
This strikes us as a game that produces for DFS, but not necessarily from the players you have come to expect in recent weeks.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 50.5
Saints: 22.25
Chiefs: 28.25
This is going to be a popular game for DFS plays this week, particularly since most of the weapons on both sides come at reasonable prices. The premium guys, Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks are much better on home turf than road grass, so it opens up a lot of alternative plays.
The best matchup comes for RB Jamaal Charles, who scored last week and has a price reduced by his lack of feature role to date. Both Charles and Spencer Ware should get production and volume against a Saints defense that has given up the most points to fantasy RBs to date – by a wide margin. In five games, the Saints have given up a fantasy-leading 11 TDs combined and 10 of the rushing variety.
And, to make matters better, the Saints have the second-worst pass defense in football. QB Alex Smith is a bargain play, while WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Travis Kelce are viable stacking options – especially against a Saints offense that can keep this game interesting into the second half.
The Saints side presents values for us with RB Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas and TE Coby Fleener. Ingram is facing a bottom-10 run defense, while Thomas has a TD in each of the past three games and Fleener has been resurgent after a slow start. As much as Brees and Cooks might not perform to value here, this trio's production can trump their prices.
We failed miserably on our advice of a Smith-Charles-Maclin-Kelce stack last week at Oakland, but we didn't see the Chiefs blowing out that opponent on the road. The Chiefs should produce at home and the Saints' Brees can keep this game interesting, as we said above. This game is important for DFS on production, volume and value this week.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Total: 48
Colts: 23
Titans: 25
Andrew Luck is struggling with a banged-up set of weapons, but unless you truly believe the Titans are a contender and Luck's Colts are not, this should be a game the Colts assert themselves against the rebuilding and improving, but probably not ready for prime time, Titans. The Colts nearly won at Houston, arguably a better , and frankly should have.
The Titans are top 10 against the run and pass, defensively, so expect the Colts to rely more on veteran Frank Gore than most weeks. Gore is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and his price is mitigated by his age and his presence in a Luck-heavy offense. Gore has five TDs in four games against the Titans, including four rushing TDs in his two games in Tennessee in his career.
Luck is 7-0 against the Titans, including 4-0 at Tennessee in his career. But, since the Titans are a top 10 fantasy team against QBs, RBs and WRs, you likely cannot play him at his price – especially since the matchup on the other side tends to suggest this game will be played tight and under the total.
The Titans' side should put heavy volume on the run game. DeMarco Murray is worth his premium against the league's eighth-worst rush defense (third worst against fantasy RBs). Murray's involvement in the passing game is particularly interesting here, because the Colts have given up a fantasy-high four receiving TDs to RBs. Even rookie Derrick Henry at his price might be intriguing for 10 touches and a TD.
Down the field, Marcus Mariota is hot with back-to-back three TD games, but the Colts are much better equipped with the return of Vontae Davis, and somehow they have managed to be No. 7 in fantasy against WRs (despite being fourth worst against the pass). With that said, Kendall Wright has proven healthier now than he has been all season and he is coming off an 8-133-1 performance that hasn't yet impacted his low, low price. Wright is a nice value play, particularly if you see the Colts overcoming their slow start to the season here.
Delanie Walker should rebound with a double-digit performance against a bottom-10 team against fantasy TEs, especially with the running game clicking against the soft Indy front. It should put the Titans in scoring position in the red zone, which is where Walker can trump Wright as Mariota's go-to target.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 40
Vikings: 21
Eagles: 19
The Sam Bradford bowl. Two of the NFL's top six defenses match up, which makes for little in the way of DFS promise. Even their trustworthy D/ST units are low-end plays against the two offenses that have been the stingiest in football with turnovers. If you're taking one of those D/STs to be contrarian, go with the Eagles at home as Jim Schwartz dials up packages in Bradford's return to Philly – even Ben Roethlisberger couldn't hack it there, after all.
Schwartz's D is No. 1 against fantasy QBs despite having allowed five TD passes in the past two games. They still haven't given up a passing TD at home, making most of the Vikings options risky plays. If you go with one, go with TE Kyle Rudolph, who has three TDs in the past three games.
Both of the Vikings backs are considerations against an Eagles defense that was spliced by the Redskins' Matt Jones 135-1 last time out. Matt Asiata does the goal-line work, scoring TDs in the past two games, and should be the better value. Jerick McKinnon will get volume, though.
The Eagles backs are a hodge-podge of snaps and touches, so consider them too difficult to trust against the Vikings' No. 2-ranked defense (No. 4 against the run). The Eagles offense as a whole is tough, as rookie QB Carson Wentz has lost some luster and no one has been consistent as a downfield threat, including disappointing TE Zach Ertz. The Vikes are No. 2 against fantasy WRs haven't given up a TD or 65 yards to a TE all season.
Generally, look away, here – unless you truly love defense and pick-and-peck offensive game planning.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 45.5
Browns: 18.25
Bengals: 27.25
The Bengals return home after a pair of road losses to 5-1 teams, setting them up for a bountiful game against the NFL's lone winless team – a team they blew out twice last season. It makes the Bengals a stacking play, starting with the RBs their offense is predicated on.
The Browns are sixth worst against the run and have given up the fourth most rush attempts per game at 29.5. The Bengals will pound the rock 30-plus in this one. This will be Jeremy Hill's first 100-yard game and might even feature multiple rushing TDs. The Browns have given up six TDs to fantasy RBs in the past three games, making even Giovani Bernard a sleeper to find the end zone. Hill has rushed for 298-3 in this past three combined against Cleveland, while has averaged 86 yards from scrimmage in this past two.
All of the rushing sets up WR A.J. Green nicely off play-action against the sixth-worst pass defense. Our Bengals stack wouldn't include Andy Dalton – even against the second-worst team in fantasy against QBs – but if TE Tyler Eifert (back, ankle) makes the start, consider him a sleeper. Eifert went off for a career-high three TDs in the past meeting last year.
For the Browns, Cody Kessler is coming off the best game of his young career, and the Bengals have given up the third-most passing TDs (14) to date, but we fear a 30-3 blowout might be on tap here – especially if Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) is limited or cannot go at all. RB Isaiah Crowell or TE Gary Barnidge are the best of the limited Browns plays here, and if we had to choose one, it would be Barnidge for garbage-time targets in a blowout.
Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
Total: 50
Redskins: 24.5
Lions: 25.5
Not only does this game have a nice number, it's also projected to be hotly contested throughout. It might even present us the madness we got but didn't expect last week between the Lions and Rams.
Kirk Cousins is a quality plays at his price, especially considering the matchup. The Lions have been dead last against fantasy QBs and bottom 10 against the pass, giving up a league-high 17 TD passes through six games. We have to figure Cousins gets 300-3 here, as Case Keenum did a week ago.
The Redskins stack should include Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder, especially if Jordan Reed (concussion) is ruled out before game time. DeSean Jackson (shoulder) is banged up, too, but even he might be a consideration in a potentially wide-open game in Detroit.
We prefer to side with the Redskins pass-game options over the resurgent Matt Jones (135-1 last week). The Lions are the lone team yet to give up a rushing TD to a fantasy RB.
The Redskins run defense might make one of Theo Riddick (ankle), Zach Zenner or Dwayne Washington (ankle) a consideration, but the combination of the three cuts into each other. Zenner is the safest bet for volume and goal-line carries against a Redskins run defense that has given up the third-most rushing TDs to date (seven).
Matthew Stafford and the Lions' cast of receivers (Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin and TE Eric Ebron) have been solid, but the varied set of weapons and the improvement of the Redskins pass defense (thanks to CB Josh Norman) make any or all of them difficult to trust.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 47.5
Raiders: 23.25
Jaguars: 24.25
This one lines up nicely for the disappointing Blake Bortles against the NFL's worst pass defense. The Raiders have been ripped by top QBs Drew Brees (423-4), Matt Ryan (396-3) and Philip Rivers (359-4) and even Joe Flacco (298 yards) pushed it against the Raiders' secondary.
Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and maybe even the emerging Marqise Lee are due for a breakthrough. Lee, coming off 6-61, is going to be a popular bargain play. You will want to get exposure to some, if not all of this, and you can do so with the single play of Bortles at a value price. Even Chris Ivory, facing the Raiders' third-worst run defense, is a bargain stacking option. T.J. Yeldon is starting right now and priced that way, but Ivory out-touched him a week ago and got the goal-line look.
The Jags are quietly improved defensively, ranking in the top 10 against fantasy RBs, which makes Latavius Murray (turf toe) difficult to trust in his return from injury.
After last week's disappointing performance, Derek Carr is down the list of advisable QB plays and Amari Cooper's hot streak draws a higher price and more defensive attention. Michael Crabtree might be a rebound play amid his disappearance in the offense the past couple of weeks, especially if he gets to work against Prince Amakamura.
Although we favor the values and matchup for the Jags' DFS plays, the Raiders' offensive firepower can keep this game interesting, if not wide open in the second half.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Total: 44
Bills: 23.5
Dolphins: 20.5
LeSean McCoy (hamstring) might be headed to the pine with injury, which will make Mike Gillislee a huge play for the NFL's No. 1 rushing offense against the NFL's second-worst run defense. As much as the Dolphins have been gashed on the ground in yardage, they have broken just once (one TD allowed to fantasy RBs, a league low).
Regardless, RBs make the Bills' go and even Reggie Bush might be a value play in PPR formats if McCoy is ruled out before game time. If McCoy goes, expect more snaps and production from Gillislee regardless, because the contending Bills (can't believe we just printed that) need to be cautious this time of year with their bell-cow back.
QB Tyrod Taylor has a solid floor, but limited ceiling, so get exposure to him through one of his targets if the Bills need to play off the run game with McCoy banged up. Robert Woods and Charles Clay are the best plays, but their health might give production to sleepers Marquise Goodwin or Justin Hunter on the cheap. Monitor the Bills up to game time very closely. There is very likely some value to be had here, especially in a favorable division matchup.
Jay Ajayi is scorching hot and affordable, but the improving health of Arian Foster might take some of the zip out of his production, especially because the Bills' defense can stack the line of scrimmage. The Bills are No. 3 against fantasy QBs, so no one will be playing Ryan Tannehill in this one.
It is far too easy to forget the Dolphins enjoyed a thumping of the Pittsburgh Steelers at home last week, so if you're looking for Dolphin plays and cannot trust the RBs, consider Jarvis Landry. The problem with him is he is more of a PPR option and his price in those formats takes him out of the bargain range.
We like the Bills defense, but the Dolphins as a contrarian play at home is interesting as their price as well.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Total: 40.5
Ravens: 19.75
Jets: 20.75
Two top run defenses facing two offenses that want to be stubborn with the run. Something has got to give here.
We will go with the Jets giving, and Terrance West taking. Since taking over as a starter West has posted 113-1, 95-0 and 87-2, numbers that belie his price. Volume and game flow will both be in his favor here again, too. Nothing in Joe Flacco's arsenal is intriguing with the past-his-prime Steve Smith banged up – even against the Jets' fifth-worst pass defense (second worst against fantasy WR). If anything it's Dennis Pitta for his volume, price and red-zone opportunity.
For the Jets, we cannot advise Matt Forte or Bilal Powell against the NFL's No. 1 run defense and with QB Geno Smith taking over under center. Brandon Marshall is an interesting play, though, because he will get a high percentage of the targets and the Ravens have been third-worst against fantasy WRs thanks to the butt-kicking given by Odell Beckham last week.
If you're looking for a bargain, consider Charone Peake, who arrived as Eric Decker's (shoulder) beneficiary Monday night after Week 7 price lists were released. Peake is also a down-the-depth-chart guy who probably has worked a lot with Geno Smith on the scout team earlier this season. When backup QBs take over, their practice-time connections tend to surprise in fantasy. If nothing else Peake is cheap and will get targets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 46.5
Bucs: 24.25
49ers: 22.25
How often do you see the Bucs as a road favorite? That, the loss of Vincent Jackson for the season, the absence of Doug Martin (hamstring) and the matchup against the league's worst run defense all combine to make the value of Jacquizz Rodgers a huge DFS play.
The 49ers have given up the most rushing attempts and yards and the second-most points to fantasy RBs. Rodgers should be busy on the ground and as a pass receiver, too. Before the bye, he racked up 101 yards rushing and five receptions. The Bucs cannot just have Jameis Winston throw it out there to Mike Evans every time.
Evans, despite his premium, is a solid play, too, because of his certainty to targets with Jackson done. Also, the 49ers have given up the second-most TDs to fantasy WRs (10).
On the 49ers side, Colin Kaepernick provides value at QB because of his rushing numbers. The likely absence of Carlos Hyde (shoulder) puts the onus on the offense – and rushing – on Kaepernick. The Bucs are better than you might think with their front seven, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per rush (3.7) in football and that's with the fifth-most attempts per game. Shaun Draughn or Mike Davis might start for Hyde, but consider the offense in Kaepernick's hands (or better stated: legs).
Kaepernick made Torrey Smith a home-run threat last week, while chopping off the once-steady PPR production of Jeremy Kerley. If you want to take advantage of the fourth-worst team in fantasy vs. WRs, do it with Smith getting open deep off a Kaepernick scramble for the power-armed QB.
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 53.5
Chargers: 23.75
Falcons: 29.75
Here is the game everyone wants a piece of, especially since the prices are still in the value range for the most part. That is due to the Falcons' No. 1 offense having survived back-to-back road games at Denver and Seattle. Returning home for a shootout against Philip Rivers and the Chargers is timely for DFS value and production.
Both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are affordable and get to face a Chargers defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. Coleman, in particular, gets the benefit of facing a team that has given up a league-high 54 receptions to RBs. Play either Falcons RB, or both.
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are a weekly stacking play, and face the Chargers secondary that lost Jason Verrett (knee) for the season and bottom 10 against the pass. The fact a potent gunslinger is on the other side should push the pace for Ryan-Jones. Play them even if you overrate the every-other-week phenomenon with Jones.
The Chargers side is equally intriguing because the Falcons have been third worst against fantasy QBs, sixth worst against the pass, ninth worst against fantasy RBs and, best of all, fourth worst against fantasy TEs. Rivers loves using his TEs and Hunter Henry is still priced as a part-timer while producing with the TE elite.
Melvin Gordon remains a volume and TD machine and gets a bottom 10 opponent against fantasy RBs – one that gave up three rushing TDs last week. Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Dontelle Inman and TE Antonio Gates – throw them all into the random pot of plays in a shootout in Atlanta.
The only thing off the board in this one are the defenses.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 47
Patriots: 27
Steelers: 20
Boy this game really looks a lot different with Landry Jones starting at QB for Ben Roethlisberger. What could have been a shootout might wind up being a slobber-knocker – and one against two teams that prides itself on taking away the run defensively.
Brady does draw the league's third-worst pass defense, but we are fading him and Rob Gronkowski as the Steelers try to hunker down with Le'Veon Bell and play keep away at home. As much as the Steelers have given up loads of yardage downfield, they have yet to give up a three-TD day to a passer – something you usually count on from Brady (288-4 in the past meeting) and need at his price.
Riddle us fools, but we also believe the Steelers will be better against the run this week than they were against the Dolphins' Ajayi, too, making LeGarrette Blount a less intriguing option. Volume and perhaps a short TD might be in order, but we cannot see another monster RB performance against the Steelers – not at Pittsburgh anyway.
If we play Pats, we are more inclined to consider the values of RB James White or WR Julian Edelman (foot) in the short passing game. Edelman went 11-3 in their past meeting last September.
On the Steelers side, you cannot trust Jones to help Antonio Brown play up to his premium, so consider this game squarely in the hands of Le'Veon Bell, rushing and receiving. Volume and the overall piece of the pie he gets with Big Ben down make him worth even his lofty price.
This could have been a wide-open game, but we like Bell to help the Steelers control the clock, keep this game manageable even if we love the value of the Pats defense getting after the limited Jones.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 43.5
Seahawks: 20.75
Cardinals: 22.75
This marks a make-or-break week for the Cards, a team that was blown out 36-6 in Arizona last Jan. 3. You have to expect the Cards to be up for this one in prime time, even if this has the makings of a 12-9 game.
There is no favorable matchup on the board, so your DFS plays here have to rest where production and volume lie. That is with the beast-moding David Johnson. Sure, the run-game matchup is tough, but his production is not limited to that and he can impact the game via the pass – as he does every week. He has not had fewer than three receptions in a game thus far and gets a steady stream of targets. Keep rolling him out there.
Fade everything in the Cards pass game otherwise. Carson Palmer is dealing with a sore hamstring and his wide array of weapons tend to cancel all of each other out, especially in a matchup against one of the best secondaries in NFL history… not just this season.
Christine Michael will get volume and had 102 yards in last year's blowout, but we cannot advise the play against the fantasy's No. 5 team vs. RBs. Jimmy Graham has been good for 6-85 every week of late, but the Cards are the No. 1 team in fantasy vs. TEs and will make someone else beat them.
We have little confidence in anyone by Russell Wilson as a play for the Seahawks, but most of his value is based on his 120+ rating in three of the past four vs. Arizona.
We do feel their might be some value to be had with the underpriced Cards defense at home. We rarely get them this cheap and, as we said above, this is an important game and a revenge game for a quality fantasy D/ST.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Total: 40.5
Texans: 16.75
Broncos: 23.75
Boy, these prime-time games don't instill much DFS excitement, as two more defensive-oriented running teams face off Monday night. We have a contrarian lean here, though.
As much as the press seems bad for C.J. Anderson and positive for rookie RB Devontae Booker, we like the value of Anderson in Gary Kubiak's anticipated return to the sideline and his first matchup against his former team.
Kubiak is still a feature-back guy, so we will go with Anderson racking up 20 touches, 100 combined yards and at least one TD at home against the Texans. Houston has somewhat quietly given up the fourth-most rushing yards to date, including 100-yard games to similar power backs LeGarrette Blount and Frank Gore.
We also like the Broncos defense getting after Brock Osweiler in his return to Denver and harrassing DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Fade everything in the Texans' passing game against the Broncos secondary, which rebounds back at home.
Lamar Miller returned to fantasy prominence last week, but it also priced him out of a reasonable play against this elite defense. The Broncos have yet to give up a 100-yard rusher, so fade everything in the Texans offense, as Las Vegas' 16.75 Texans total suggests.
As good as the No. 1 Broncos pass defense is, the No. 2 Texans pass defense is equally challenging for plays of Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. If you have to play one of them, go with the reduced price of Sanders for his potential to break a long one off a broken play as the Texans stack the box against Anderson and Booker.
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