Volume and usage are two areas of Daily Fantasy Football that are key to successful lineup building. The correlation between rushing attempts or receiving targets greatly favor the amount of fantasy points a player receives at the end of the week. We are breaking down interesting player scenarios, trying to get a grip on future workloads in the NFL. We will be looking at crowded wide receiver cores on a week-to-week basis, as well as split backfields. Some will stay away from uncertainty in NFL, which gives an edge for those willing to take chances on teams with unclear usage. Injuries will also open the door for others, which can be found here.There is a lot of variance, which is what we will be covering. If there is a team or player situation that didn't get covered in the article, a comment below or finding me on Twitter (@JGuilbault11) will be the best way get it answered.
Jay Ajayi To Philadelphia
Moving from a dysfunctional Miami team to a Philadelphia team cruising in the NFC East, Jay Ajayi has to be thrilled. While he moves into a situation with LeGarrette Blount, Ajayi is expected to takeover as the RB1 after the Bye Week. Neither back are appealing this week against the Broncos number one rated rush defense. Ajayi will move to a slightly better offensive line, but also don't overlook the fact that he is in a much better flowing offense that will keep defenses guessing. I am not willing to say this is a vast improvement based on offensive line, given Philly ranks 21st in adjusted line yards, while Miami ranks 31st.
Ajayi has been inefficient this season, rushing for 3.4 YPC and averaging 66.4 rushing yards per game. He isn't much of a pass-catching back, but is certainly an improvement from Blount if they stick with him in that department. It is tough to peg Ajayi as a 20-25 touch guy moving forward for the rest of the season, as Blount and Wendell Smallwood will still get snaps and touches. Philadelphia does not play a top ten rush defense outside of Denver over the rest of the season.
As far as the Miami goes, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams will be a committee approach the rest of the way. Miami's offense is dreadful, averaging 13.1 points per game, and their defense isn't going to keep them in games to just run the ball. This offense isn't one I want exposure to outside of the wide receivers, and even that will be a stretch some weeks. Drake is in line to pick up early-down-snaps, while Williams will be a third down guy. Adam Gase isn't necessarily solid on Drake, so it would not surprise me to see both split things equally. Otherwise, 55-45 for Drake seems like a good estimate.
Kelvin Benjamin To Buffalo
In what was a shock trade around the league, Kelvin Benjamin landed in Buffalo. The Bills have been lacking a bigger WR threat, as their wide receivers lack size in the red zone. Carolina ranked in the bottom half in passing attempts, but Buffalo ranks bottom three. Benjamin isn't going to be a huge upside guy in Buffalo, and really wasn't in Carolina. This will move Zay Jones into his natural role, while Jordan Matthews stays put. Expect Buffalo to be a run first team still, and Benjamin should stay on par with 5-7 targets per game. He averaged 6.4 in Carolina, and I wouldn't say Tyrod just peppers him with targets. Benjamin will see a very favorable schedule the rest of the way, seeing four bottom ten pass defenses, and no team ranking inside the top ten at the moment. One guy we can give a small bump to his Tyrod Taylor, with Benjamin's size in the red zone, we can give him a small tick upwards.
Carolina's offense has already been in trouble this season, averaging just 18.5 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Cam Newton gets a downgrade, while you can make the case for Devin Funchess to get the downgrade too. Funchess has seen over eight targets per game since Greg Olsen went down, but he has yet to cross the 80-yard receiving mark this season. If Funchess is going to be dealing with top cornerbacks down the stretch in an already struggling offense, I don't see much of a gain for him here. Russell Shepard and Curtis Samuel will see more snaps and targets this week, but neither are worth any DFS value at the moment, and are just speculative adds in season long. Benjamin left 18% of the team targets up for grabs, and both Funchess and Christian McCaffrey are already over 22%. Ed Dickson will battle it out with Shepard and Samuel for the rest.
Ezekiel Elliot Suspension?
I am not going to dive into this one too much because I honestly have no GD clue what is going to happen anymore with these appeals. Ezekiel Elliot missing six weeks means much more of Dak Prescott and his weapons than it does Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris. So with that being said you can add both and hope for the best if you are desperate, but in terms of DFS I much rather look at the passing game. Cole Beasley and Jason Witten have some appeal if they are used as short passing game guys to help cover up two over the hill running backs.
Danny Woodhead Rejoins A Crowded Baltimore Backfield
Danny Woodhead is due back this week, which will help a terrible passing game in some situations, but other than PPR interests, Alex Collins seems to have earned himself more of a role, per Jim Harbaugh. Now Terrance West is also back practicing and Buck Allen is also in a bit of trouble for snaps. Not that this was a fun fantasy backfield to use anyway, things have become cluttered and non-usable for DFS purposes. Baltimore sees a rough schedule the rest of the way, facing Houston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Cincinnati -- all have been solid against the run this season.