Running Backs (Week 1)

Name

DraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryFantasyDraft Salary

Projected Targets / Touches

Projected Ownership %

Projected Fantasy Points

Todd Gurley (E, S)

$7,800$8,900$13,900

3, 24

15-20%

28

Mark Ingram (E)

$6,600$7,300$12,300

5, 21

15-20%

23

Latavius Murray (S)

$5,600$6,600$10,500

3, 22

30-35%

20

Spencer Ware (S, V)

$4,400$5,400$8,700

3, 17

20-25%

18

Duke Johnson (C)

$5,100$5,600$10,100

8, 15

5-10%

17

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Todd Gurley – Coming off a 1,106 rushing yard, 10 TD rookie campaign, Todd Gurley will face a 49ers team he torched last year on Nov. 1. It only took 20 carries for Gurley to rumble, stumble and bumble his way to 133 rushing yards and a TD to go along with three receptions (RECs) for 13 yards. For the most part, last season doesn't matter except for the fact that the 49ers are still going to be absolutely terrible. A team being led by Blaine Gabbert isn't likely to dominate the time of possession so the Rams offense should have the football plenty. According to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjust Value Over Average (DVOA) statistic, running backs (RBs) performed nearly 12-percent over average against the San Francisco defense last season. The Rams offense is destined to run through Gurley once again this season so there is no reason to believe a solid game isn't on the horizon.

Mark Ingram – The Saints' 26 point implied total is the sixth highest for Week 1 according to Vegas' opening lines. There is a stronger correlation between RBs and implied total than there is for any other position and the DVOA tallies confirm the favorability of the matchup for Mark Ingram. Although the Raiders rated as a below-average matchup for top two wide receivers (WRs) and tight ends (TEs) last season, RBs enjoyed a great deal of success against them (17.0-percent DVOA). Altogether, they ranked 30th in DVOA against the position but the addition of Bruce Irvin is likely to help their cause. Still, Ingram was targeted at least four times in 75-percent of his games last year and caught three-plus passes in all but one game. This led to some impressive consistency as he only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points once in 2015. Expect a respectable performance yet again in Week 1 combining a healthy amount of carries, targets and goal line opportunities. Not many RBs enjoy such a variety of potential fantasy-friendly touches so Ingram cannot be overlooked, especially in cash games.

Latavius Murray – In all honesty, I am not in love with the talent of Latavius Murray. He is basically just another guy and it took him 266 carries to reach 1,066 yards last year (4.0 yards per carry) despite one of the best offensive lines in the game. This year, the offensive line has improved even more with the addition of Kelechi Osemele to fill the glaring hole at guard caused by J'Marcus Webb last season. In the long run, I expect explosive rookie DeAndre Washington to not only virtually eliminate Murray's third down snaps but eat into his early down workload as well. However, it's going to take a while for the transformation to occur despite Washington's noteworthy preseason. With the Raiders opening in the Superdome, Murray will not have to battle the elements and will take on a defense that was simply toast in all aspects in 2015. Only the Eagles allowed more rushing yards than the Saints' 2,076 last season but New Orleans ranked dead last in yards per carry (YPC) allowed at 4.9. Even though I am not a fan of his, Murray is in a prime spot to produce Week 1, even if his days of being a three-down back are well behind him.

Spencer Ware – Something is going on with Jamaal Charles, but whatever it is, it is music to the ears of potential Spencer Ware roster-ers. The latest reports deem Charles “unlikely" for Week 1, meaning Ware should be in for a near-full workload at just $4,400 on DraftKings (DK). Even if Charles were to suit up, Ware seemed to be the favorite for goal line duties in a committee, but now the majority of everything is going to go towards him. In 2015, Ware's opponent, the Chargers, allowed a hefty 4.8 YPC…or tied for second worst in football. Coach Andy Reid is morally opposed to taking too many chances in the passing game and likes to build a game plan around the run game and punting for field position. Basically, Ware should be a safe bet for upwards of 15 touches including from short distance by the end zone. At this bargain price tag, it's hard to imagine Ware will not be popular in cash games (for good reason).

Duke Johnson – If trying to be different, and football very rarely works out exactly as planned, look no further than Duke Johnson. After catching 61 passes last season, you'd think there would be more hype surrounding a guy who is now being coached by offensive guru Hue Jackson…but there's not. Reports at the end of training camp were all of the positive variety in the direction of Isaiah Crowell with little mention of Johnson. Remember, DK scoring awards one points-per-reception so one catch is essentially equal to 10 rushing yards. The Browns offensive line is decent but is going to struggle with two glaring holes at center and right tackle. Therefore, Robert Griffin III should be under pressure occasionally and look for security blankets. Johnson proved satisfactory in the role (or even better) last year and should become ultra-friendly with Griffin in no time. While the Eagles are no longer running Chip Kelly's fast-paced system, they did allow the 10th most receptions to opposing backs last year. Cleveland Beat Writers speculated this offseason that Johnson could be in for a 70-plus reception season and I think his surprise campaign begins this week. If Johnson is given the ball in the open field, he's always a threat to break a long one. Three receptions may be his floor and a long TD is his ceiling. For his low ownership percentage, he is worth the risk.

Wide Receivers (Week 1)

Name

DraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryFantasyDraft Salary

Projected Targets

Projected Ownership %

Projected Fantasy Points

Julio Jones (E, S)

$9,400$9,000$17,700

12

20-25%

28

DeAndre Hopkins (E, S)

$8,800$8,400$16,600

10

15-20%

34

Sammy Watkins (S, C)

$6,900$7,300$13,000

9

5-10%

22

Donte Moncrief (V, C)

$6,000$6,200$11,300

8

5-10%

17

Marvin Jones (V)

$4,600$5,500$9,100

6

10-15%

17

Julio Jones – Monday's report by Knox Bardeen on Twitter should eliminate all concerns surrounding Julio Jones in Week 1. Bardeen tweeted that Coach Dan Quinn expects Jones to be “full-go" in practice on Wednesday and consequently should play without limitation against the Buccaneers this week. Jones was targeted a league-high 203 times last year and it led to a league-best 136 RECs (tied with Antonio Brown for number one). Although he only scored eight TDs, he was targeted 11 times inside the 10 (sixth most in NFL) and became an absolute monster in PPR formatting. As long as he is active, Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan is going to find a way to target him (as he always does with his team's top target in the passing game). If spending up for a receiver, his floor is probably the safest of anyone's.

DeAndre Hopkins – Even though Jones is less volatile due to less moving important parts on the offense, DeAndre Hopkins is my favorite cash game WR this upcoming week. Why? The Bears could be without their top three corners in Week 1. Again, their top three! Brock Osweiler is a virtual unknown commodity other than a short stint as starter with the Broncos last year but it's hard to imagine he isn't an upgrade from what the Texans dealt with last year. Hopkins only converted 57-percent of his targets last year so that number is bound to go up with a superior QB talent under center. At a slight discount from Jones, Hopkins is my pick to lead all receivers in fantasy points Week 1.

Sammy Watkins – Since it was so long ago, some may have forgotten Sammy Watkins ended the 2015 regular season with at least 19.2 fantasy points in five of his last six games and he didn't dip below 13.4 fantasy points in any of those contests. He quietly developed into a WR1 and is not being treated as such in the pricing algorithm heading into 2016 (only $6,900 on DK). He'll begin with an individual matchup against Jimmy Smith of the Ravens, who rated as Pro Football Focus' 76th cornerback last year. As long as Watkins can avoid injury, which is always his Achilles Heel (pun intended), he should excel with one of the top individual advantages of any player.

Donte Moncrief – Sure Donte Moncrief slowed down towards the end of last season but why wouldn't he with Andrew Luck hurt? The two developed chemistry early in the year and Moncrief scored in five of the seven games they played in together. It's clear Luck trusts him and, more importantly, trusts him in the red zone. Both T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett rely on speed while Moncrief is a bit of a bigger receiver. On paper, Hilton draws the superior individual matchup but he is also priced as such ($7,500-$6,000 on DK). Vegas implies the Colts will score the most points of any team in Week 1 and they'll be playing at home in the dome. Expect this game to be a shootout (in concurrence with the Vegas line) and for both passing games to be extremely active. When the Colts get down close to the goal line, expect Moncrief to get a look or two. While he'll likely need a TD to meet value, he sure seemed to find the end zone a lot when his guy was under center last year. He's best served for GPPs but I'm fine with deploying him in cash as well if you believe an offensive explosion is incoming from the Colts.

Marvin Jones – One guy garnering a fair amount of attention throughout the industry this week is Marvin Jones. It appears he has found a home on the Calvin Johnson-less Lions that are looking for targets to replace the Hall-of-Famer's ridiculous production. The Colts possess two corners who are both pretty imposing: Vontae Davis rated as a top 20 corner last year while Patrick Robinson rated just outside the top 35. Considering Golden Tate has caught 100-plus passes before in this offense, it's likely Davis focuses much of his attention on him. With the Lions only carrying four total receivers on their roster, it's hard to imagine some nobody coming out of nowhere to produce a huge week…because that nobody doesn't exist. Tate, Jones, Anquan Boldin and T.J. Jones are it in terms of receivers and the Colts limited receptions to opposing backs in 2015 so Theo Riddick should be reasonably neutralized. Someone has to be targeted, especially in the red zone, and Jones has caught double-digit TDs before. Despite the challenging individual matchup, Jones has the best chance to succeed of all the receivers, and we know Matthew Stafford is going to sling it 35-plus times. Jones is a cheap source of potentially substantial production and can be safely deployed in any and all formats. UPDATE: Vontae Davis has been ruled out for Week 1 so the matchup improves that much more for all Lions receivers. Robinson may even move over and cover Tate more often now so Jones should be able to run free even more so.

Tight Ends (Week 1)

Name

DraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryFantasyDraft Salary

Projected Targets

Projected Ownership %

Projected Fantasy Points

Jordan Reed (E, S, V)

$6,600$7,400$10,300

11

25-30%

25

Coby Fleener (S)

$4,900$5,400$9,300

6

15-20%

11

Delanie Walker (E, S)

$4,500$6,500$8,400

8

10-15%

20

Dwayne Allen (V)

$3,200$5,500$6,300

5

5-10%

15

Clive Walford (V, C)

$3,000$4,700$5,900

7

5-10%

14

Jordan Reed – There is one TE that I trust in Week 1: Jordan Reed. Period, end of story. The only TE I am considering in cash game formats is Reed for a multitude of reasons. For one, his production rivaled that of Rob Gronkowski last year and even continued this preseason when he scored yet again in the dress rehearsal game. Like Watkins, health would be the only obstacle to potentially hold Reed back from a monster 2016 campaign. Nothing has changed in terms of the coordinator nor the quarterback so Reed is a TE1 in its truest form. 100 yards and a TD is well within reach any time this beast steps onto a football field.

Coby Fleener – Okay, so what is with the hype surrounding this guy? If he couldn't succeed with his college buddy, phenom QB in Indianapolis then what makes you think any other situation would be an upgrade? Sure Drew Brees is great but Andrew Luck was as well and both teams play in a dome. The biggest issue for Fleener has been his hands (or lack thereof) and they're not just going to magically improve unless he lines his gloves with superglue. Fleener was drafted like a top three TE in yearly leagues but I'm not buying the hype. Fleener is only slightly cheaper than Jordan Reed and/or Greg Olsen and there's no way in hell I would pay for him instead in cash games. At the same time, he is a huge target and playing a team that allowed a historic amount of production to the position over a short stretch last year, so it's foolish to completely write-off Fleener. Let's just say he's best-suited for tournament play.

Delanie Walker – Last year's leader in receptions at the TE position was none other than Delanie Walker and he'll draw an enticing matchup in Week 1 against the Vikings. Per Football Outsiders DVOA statistic, the Vikings ranked 25th against opposing TEs last year but above average against most opposing WRs. Hence, it's reasonable to infer the Titans will design an offensive plan that will attack the weakness of the defense. If there's one guy we're sure Marcus Mariota trusts, it's Walker (even though reports surfaced in the last 24 hours suggesting Mariota also trusts Tajae Sharpe). If set on spending up at other skill positions, Walker is the common sense cheaper pivot from Reed.

Dwayne Allen – Reverting back to the Donte Moncrief tidbit, Indianapolis really only has two large targets to rely on: Moncrief and Dwayne Allen. Assuming Frank Gore doesn't successfully convert all of his goal line touches into points, Moncrief and/or Allen will get their shot to catch a TD. In a game that should be both fast-paced and high scoring, Luck should spread around the production as per-usual. Unlike last year, Allen will not have to compete with Coby Fleener for the TE production on the team. All of the targets are his and this should equate to a nice year from Allen in a borderline-elite offense. Oh and the Lions ranked 29th in DVOA against TEs last year so there is an opportunity for him to exploit the Lions' weakness as well. If simply targeting a TE TD for cheap, Allen at $5,500 has to be among the favorites.

Clive Walford – Speaking of potential cheap TDs, Clive Walford is one of my favorite breakout candidates for this season. The Raiders offensive line is the best in football and Derek Carr is coming off a season in which he threw for 30-plus TDs while there was a hole in the O-Line. With even more time to throw, Carr and the Raiders are set to explode, and the one aspect the offense was missing last year was a consistent producer at the TE position. Walford, drafted in the third round of last year's draft, clearly possesses talent and Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrove wants Walford “to be a big part of what we do." What could be a better opening matchup than one against the team that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs last year? Answer: there is none.



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